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71.
72.
Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs
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Sylvaine Giakoumi Benjamin S. Halpern Loïc N. Michel Sylvie Gobert Maria Sini Charles‐François Boudouresque Maria‐Cristina Gambi Stelios Katsanevakis Pierre Lejeune Monica Montefalcone Gerard Pergent Christine Pergent‐Martini Pablo Sanchez‐Jerez Branko Velimirov Salvatrice Vizzini Arnaud Abadie Marta Coll Paolo Guidetti Fiorenza Micheli Hugh P. Possingham 《Conservation biology》2015,29(4):1228-1234
Effective ecosystem‐based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components’ vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. 相似文献
73.
Stefano Canessa Sarah J. Converse Matt West Nick Clemann Graeme Gillespie Michael McFadden Aimee J. Silla Kirsten M. Parris Michael A. McCarthy 《Conservation biology》2016,30(3):599-609
Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species. 相似文献
74.
Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. In contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy.From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities. 相似文献
75.
评析国内外以第一代人因可靠性分析(静态)、第二代人因可靠性分析(动态)为主体形成的人误防范理论和方法;针对目前不能量化人的生理、认知、心理等相关非结构性和非确定性参数和数据的"瓶颈",建立基于人-机-环系统业务流程的人误系统复合状态(Multiplex State ofHumanErrors System,MSHES)结构模型;探求运用粗糙集数据挖掘,对资深专业人员的经验规则信息、人因事故或事件分析的信息,挖掘人因层次结构中的根因与人误层次结构中的差错之间的关联关系,构建基于规则的人误防范专家系统结构模型;探究人的风险性评估和人误防范理论。 相似文献
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77.
摘要:如何及时采取科学手段控制污染,减少对环境和人民生命财产的损失,与专家组的专业水平有着密切的关系。文章结合松花江硝基苯污染、化工原料桶进入江水事件,论述了在突发性环境污染事件中专家组的作用。 相似文献
78.
Seema Awasthi Mukesh Khare Prashant Gargava 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2006,11(3):267-276
Gaussian-based dispersion models are widely used to estimate local pollution levels. The accuracy of such models depends on
stability classification schemes as well as plume rise equations. A general plume dispersion model (GPDM) for a point source
emission, based on Gaussian plume dispersion equation, was developed. The program complex was developed using Java and Visual
basic tools. It has the flexibility of using five kinds of stability classification schemes, i.e., Lapse Rate, Pasquill–Gifford
(PG), Turner, σ–θ and Richardson number. It also has the option of using two types of plume rise formulations – Briggs and
Holland’s. The model, applicable for both rural and urban roughness conditions, uses meteorological and emission data as its
input parameters, and calculates concentrations of pollutant at the center of each cell in a predefined grid area with respect
to the given source location. Its performance was tested by comparing with 4-h average field data of continuous releases of
SO2 from Dadri thermal power plant (Uttar Pradesh, India). Results showed that the Turner scheme used with Holland’s equation
gives the best outcome having a degree of agreement (d) of 0.522. 相似文献
79.
泥石流防治工程方案优化设计专家系统初步研究 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6
泥石流灾害是一种复杂的自然现象,泥石流物防治工程设计中不确定的因素很多,泥石流防治工程往往是根据泥石流防治专家自己的专业知识和经验来进行的,广泛收集,分析综合和抽取专家的知识和经验,采用专家系统是进行此类非结构化总是求解的主要途径之一。 相似文献
80.