Not Knowing, Not Recording, Not Listing: Numerous Unnoticed Mollusk Extinctions

Abstract:  Mollusks are the group most affected by extinction according to the 2007 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, despite the group having not been evaluated since 2000 and the quality of information for invertebrates being far lower than for vertebrates. Altogether 302 species and 11 subspecies are listed as extinct on the IUCN Red List. We reevaluated mollusk species listed as extinct through bibliographic research and consultation with experts. We found that the number of known mollusk extinctions is almost double that of the IUCN Red List. Marine habitats seem to have experienced few extinctions, which suggests that marine species may be less extinction prone than terrestrial and freshwater species. Some geographic and ecologic biases appeared. For instance, the majority of extinctions in freshwater occurred in the United States. More than 70% of known mollusk extinctions took place on oceanic islands, and a one-third of these extinctions may have been caused precipitously by introduction of the predatory snail Euglandina rosea. We suggest that assessment of the conservation status of invertebrate species is neglected in the IUCN Red List and not managed in the same way as for vertebrate species .     

基于Internet的大气分布式实时在线可控监测网的应用

主要论述了分布式实时在线可控大气监测网的总体设计、技术要点及解决途径。通过软件的设计策略和数据流图阐明了当前大气监测控制技术向网络化、分布性和互操作性方向发展的特点，结合开发的实例介绍了网络监测技术的应用效果。     

三效催化转化器智能故障诊断系统知识库设计

在分析三效催化转化器故障诊断知识特点的基础上,采用一些措施构建知识库,如采用神经网络方法对转化器工作状态参数进行处理,采用多层前馈神经网络模型和自组织神经网络模型获取知识,采用产生式规则形式和二元化产生式规则形式表达知识,设计量化模块和知识库模块转化知识,并采用多个神经网络来记忆知识。应用效果表明,三效催化转化器神经网络故障诊断专家系统的预报准确率较高,具有较大的实用性。     

The perils of flawed science in wildlife trade literature

Despite broad scientific consensus that sustainable use of wildlife can enhance conservation efforts, ethical concerns have led some community groups to oppose use of wild animals. Voicing those concerns is legitimate, but underlying philosophical bias should not influence science-based analysis and interpretation. We argue that philosophical biases are common in the scientific literature on trade in wildlife. The critically important case of bias surrounding the use of reptile leathers for luxury fashion illustrates the problem. Based on analysis of official seizures of fashion products made from wildlife, a recent study inferred that criminal activity (as inferred by noncompliance with regulations) was common and increasing and, hence, that authorities needed to adopt more stringent restrictions on the trade. In fact, the conclusions of that study are artifacts of pseudoreplication (e.g., multiple counts of single violations) and biased sampling (e.g., focus on companies with high rates of error) and run directly opposite to actual patterns in the data. As a proportion of overall trade, rates of noncompliance are exceptionally low (<0.4%), are declining, and result primarily from paper-work errors rather than criminal intent (e.g., such errors are more frequent for goods shipped by government authorities than by the commercial fashion industry). The recommendation by the study authors to prohibit the international trade in wildlife-based fashion products is imperiling a sustainable trade that can benefit biodiversity and people's livelihoods by providing financial incentives for conservation of species and habitats. This example offers a warning of the dangers of basing research on the wildlife trade on ethical or philosophical positions rather than objective evaluations of evidence.     

ESTIMATES OF MEAN CHLOROPHYLL-a CONCENTRATION: PRECISION,ACCURACY, AND SAMPLING DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Data from 56 north-temperate lakes and reservoirs are used to develop models predicting temporal variance as a function of the mean chlorophyll-a concentration. Trophy, as estimated by mean chlorophyll-a concentration, is shown to have little effect on the sampling effort required to achieve a pre-determined level of precision for lakes sampled year-round. Collecting ten observations results in a coefficient of variation that averaged 20 percent; collecting more than ten observations yields increasingly marginal improvements in precision. The same guidelines apply to mesotrophic or eutrophic lakes sampled in the summer, whereas oligotrophic lakes sampled in the summer require fewer observations to achieve the same level of precision. The bias resulting from collecting too few observations is minimized if five or more observations are collected.     

“环境影响评价专家系统”的开发研究

文章分析了研制环境影响评价专家系统的目的和作用,介绍了该专家系统专家知识的主要内容,描述了环境影响评价专家系统的组成结构和主要构件的设计,并介绍了该系统的使用情况。     

Temporal trends in opportunistic citizen science reports across multiple taxa

Opportunistic reporting of species observations to online platforms provide one of the most extensive sources of information about the distribution and status of organisms in the wild. The lack of a clear sampling design, and changes in reporting over time, leads to challenges when analysing these data for temporal change in organisms. To better understand temporal changes in reporting, we use records submitted to an online platform in Sweden (Artportalen), currently containing 80 million records. Focussing on five taxonomic groups, fungi, plants, beetles, butterflies and birds, we decompose change in reporting into long-term and seasonal trends, and effects of weekdays, holidays and weather variables. The large surge in number of records since the launch of the, initially taxa-specific, portals is accompanied by non-trivial long-term and seasonal changes that differ between the taxonomic groups and are likely due to changes in, and differences between, the user communities and observer behaviour. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01550-w.     

针对瓦斯事故的安全投资效益评估方法研究

煤矿生产中瓦斯事故的发生及其危害程度的不确定性使得定量评价损失很困难.本文提出一种评估煤矿瓦斯事故严重程度和相关安全投资效益的方法.通过分析影响煤矿瓦斯事故发生的主要因素,利用专家调查法推断出瓦斯事故的发生概率和严重程度,进而估计出瓦斯事故的风险度并定量评价相关的安全投资效益.通过这种方法,可以提出各种安全投资方案并进行安全投资效益比较,据此选择安全投资效益最好的安全投资方案进行安全投资决策,最大限度地降低煤矿瓦斯事故的发生概率和危害程度.实例分析表明这种方法是有效的.     

基于FTA的矿井监控预警诊断知识表示及推理机制

当前的矿井监测监控系统给出的预警结果只能反映传感器所在位置的参数变化,并不能依此判断传感器所在位置就是故障源。研究矿井监控预警诊断专家系统,通过建立矿井通风系统故障树设计面向故障树的基于框架与规则的混合知识表示方法,利用框架中诊断规则的推理确定故障传播关系,找到故障源。设计了矿井监控预警诊断推理机制,利用监控系统对灾变时期的火灾和瓦斯大量涌出以及正常生产时期矿井中的活塞效应、巷道风阻变化、通风构筑物故障、爆破、通风动力故障以及自然风压变化进行故障诊断推理分析,给出监控预警诊断故障源分析界面,为管理人员对矿井正常生产和灾变时期的故障处理提供依据。     

Making sense of organizational change: Is hindsight really 20/20?

This qualitative study explores the conceptual links between 2 different approaches to managerial cognition, sensemaking and cognitive bias, in the context of organizational change. A longitudinal case study utilizing both real‐time assessments and retrospective sensemaking data from interviews with 26 hospital employees at 3 points in time was undertaken. Patterns related to individuals' retrospective accounts and real‐time assessments were identified and used to construct 4 prototypical narratives. Data analysis revealed that organizational change was not a markedly negative experience for most informants, which is contrary to the prevailing theme in the literature. This and other findings are discussed in terms of sensemaking and cognitive bias. This study makes 2 contributions to our understanding of how individual's experience and make sense of organizational change over time as (a) little is known about how the process of change unfolds over time at the individual level and (b) extant research has not investigated the extent to which individuals' retrospective sensemaking about organizational change reflects or diverges from their real‐time assessments over the course of the change. More broadly, the study provides insights and focused advice for management researchers regarding the use of retrospective data to understand individuals' perceptions of situations that have already occurred.