发动机综合监控系统的效能评估方法研究

目的提高航空发动机地面维护工作的效率。方法采用融合层次分析法和专家调查法,对新型航空发动机监控系统的实际工作效能评估方法进行研究和分析。结果得出10名专家对该系统效能的评估结果。结论通过分析系统各部分工作能力的效能优劣,建议相关部门不仅要关注发动机监测方法和措施的提高,更要重视监测工作中发现的问题和异常情况的及时反馈,从而提高发动机综合保障能力。     

基于J2EE的城市森林病虫害专家系统研究

基于J2EE的城市森林病虫害专家系统将自然语言理解技术、数据库技术、网络技术以及领域专家的病虫害诊断经验和病虫害的预测与防治技术成果有机地结合起来,可以对城市森林常见病虫害进行预测、诊断和防治。本文讨论了城市森林病虫害的现状并介绍了基于J2EE的城市森林病虫害专家系统的主要应用技术、设计思路、系统功能和结构设计。     

Are soil conservation technologies “win‐win?” A case study of Anjeni in the north‐western Ethiopian highlands

This study measures the impact of fanya juu terraces on the net value of crop income in a high‐rainfall area in the Ethiopian highlands using cross‐sectional multiple plot observations. Using propensity score matching methods we find that the net value of crop income for plots with fanya juu terraces is lower than for plots without fanya juu terraces. This finding makes it difficult to avoid concluding that while the technologies might reduce soil erosion and associated off‐site effects, they do so at the expense of poor farmers in the Ethiopian highlands. Therefore, fanya juu terraces cannot be characterized as a “win‐win” measure to reduce soil erosion. New agricultural technologies need to be profitable to the farmer if they are to be adopted and sustained.     

Exploring the influence of lake water chemistry on chlorophyll a: A multivariate statistical model analysis

A multivariate statistical approach integrating the absolute principal components score (APCS) and multivariate linear regression (APCS-MLR), along with structural equation modeling (SEM), was used to model the influence of water chemistry variables on chlorophyll a (Chl a) in Lake Qilu, a severely polluted lake in southwestern China. Water quality was surveyed monthly from 2000 to 2005. APCS-MLR was used to identify key water chemistry variables, mine data for SEM, and predict Chl a. Seven principal components (PCs) were determined as eigenvalues >1, which explained 68.67% of the original variance. Four PCs were selected to predict Chl a using APCS-MLR. The results showed a good fit between the observed data and modeled values, with R² = 0.80. For SEM, Chl a and eight variables were used: NH₄-N (ammonia-nitrogen), total phosphorus (TP), Secchi disc depth (SD), cyanide (CN), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), fluoride (F), and temperature (T). A conceptual model was established to describe the relationships among the water chemistry variables and Chl a. Four latent variables were also introduced: physical factors, nutrients, toxic substances, and phytoplankton. In general, the SEM demonstrated good agreement between the sample covariance matrix of observed variables and the model-implied covariance matrix. Among the water chemistry factors, T and TP had the greatest positive influence on Chl a, whereas SD had the largest negative influence. These results will help researchers and decision-makers to better understand the influence of water chemistry on phytoplankton and to manage eutrophication adaptively in Lake Qilu.     

基于自然环境中优选药物的毒性和生态毒理风险研究

在如今超过1 500种在用原料药中,环境中发现几率明确和对环境影响明确的原料药所占比例很小。由于很难监管所有在用原料药,众多先前的研究提议将原料药按照受关注程度排序,从而可以将研究资源集中于那些最受瞩目的药物。然而这些研究都存在局限性,本文从之前优先性方法的实践经验出发,提出了一种更为全面的原料药排序方法。该方法基于对水生生物、土壤生物、鸟类、野生哺乳动物和人类的风险,综合考虑了食物链顶端存在的生态毒理学研究终点和由这些治疗性药物作用机制带来的非顶端效果。对于在英国社区以及医院设置中使用的146种活性药物的分析可以更为详细地说明该方法的运用。根据这一方法,我们将16种化合物列为优先考虑的药物。这些药物包括了抗生素、抗抑郁药、抗炎药、抗糖尿病药、抗肥胖药、雌激素类化合物以及相关的代谢产物。我们建议这种优先性方法在将来可以更广泛地应用于世界上不同的地区。
精选自Jiahua Guo, Chris J. Sinclair, Katherine Selby, Alistair B.A. Boxall. Toxicological and ecotoxicological risk based prioritisation of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1550–1559, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3319
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3319/full
     

Relationships between exposure to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides and the risk for developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and a meta-analysis of exposures to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)

A systematic review was performed to evaluate the association between environmental exposures to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs) and organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Searches of EMbase, Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus were performed. Reports were included if they were original human studies whose design included a control group and if the sample size was larger than 10 participants per group. The articles were excluded if the type of diabetes was unknown or Type 1. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and modified Naranjo scores for the effects of environmental contaminants were determined for each study. Of the 35 eligible studies, six were included in the meta-analysis; these focused specifically on 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Meta-analysis of these studies showed no significant increased OR for the development of T2D from exposure to TCDD. However, subgroup analysis showed significant elevated OR for the development of T2D if exposure is repeated and accompanied by exposure to other persistent pesticides (OR?=?1.48; 1.10–1.90) but a decreased odds for T2D with exposure resulting from accidental exposure (OR?=?0.46; 0.39–0.52). Our results suggest that there are significant risks of developing T2D in populations with recurring exposures to TCDD in concert with other persistent chlorinated pesticides. A mean Naranjo score of 2.0 was determined for all 35 articles; this score was 2.5 when examining only TCDD studies and 2.1 when examining studies that looked only at T2D. Each of these Naranjo scores suggests a possible association between the prevalence of T2D and exposure to PHAHs or OC pesticides.     

The International Environmental Expert Panel for Major Dam/Reservoir Projects: The Yellow River, China

The experience of the International Expert Panel on Environment for the Xiaolangdi dam/reservoir project in China (XEP) showed that the Panel meetings resulted in a marked improvement in project environmental performance by all parties participating in project implementation, with no parties exempt from the Panel's evaluations. Unfortunately the Loan Agreement authorizes use of the Panel only through the project stages of final design and construction, hence the 12th Panel meeting, which matched project construction completion, ended this series. The Panel has recommended that some meetings of the Panel be held during the project's operations stage in order to maintain continuing attention to environmental needs. The XEP experience showed that the XEP, in addition to monitoring project environmental performance, was very valuable for (i) training of Chinese staff involved in project implementation, and (ii) serving in the role as expert consultant for guiding the work of the Chinese participants. The XEP experience also showed the need for making a clear separation between evaluation, the overall resettlement program per se, and the environmental effects of the program. The Panel recommended that the Ministry of Water Resources and World Bank cooperate in sponsoring a book on The Environmental History of the Xiaolangdi Project, including both dam construction as well as resettlement problems, which would serve as a very valuable reference for guiding environmental planning for future dam projects in China (Ludwig, H.F. 1994–2000).     

Whom to Trust? Public Concerns, Late Modern Risks, and Expert Trustworthiness

This article discusses the conditions under which the use of expert knowledge may provide an adequate response to public concerns about high-tech, late modern risks. Scientific risk estimation has more than once led to expert controversies. When these controversies occur, the public at large – as a media audience – faces a paradoxical situation: on the one hand it must rely on the expertise of scientists as represented in the mass media, but on the other it is confused by competing expert claims in the absence of any clear-cut standard to judge these claims. The question then arises, what expertise can the public trust? I argue that expert controversies cannot be settled by appealing to neutral, impartial expertise, because each use of expert knowledge in applied contexts is inextricably bound up with normative and evaluative assumptions. This value-laden nature of expert contributions, however, does not necessarily force us to adopt a relativist conception of expert knowledge. Nor does it imply active involvement of ordinary citizens in scientific risk estimation – as some authors seem to suggest. The value-laden, or partisan, nature of expert statements rather requires an unbiased process of expert dispute in which experts and counter-experts can participate. Moreover, instead of being a reason for discrediting expert contributions, experts' commitment may enhance public trustworthiness because it enlarges the scope of perspectives taken into account, to include public concerns. Experts who share the same worries as (some of) the public could be expected to voice these worries at the level of expert dispute. Thus, a broadly shaped expert dispute, that is accessible to both proponents and opponents, is a prerequisite for public trust.     

采用参与观察法对某石油化工厂安全文化的研究

安全文化是高风险组织安全控制理论研究的热点问题,特指高风险组织成员共享的价值观与行为规范系统,尤其强调安全的重要性。为探讨该类组织成员的行为规范,笔者采用参与观察方法对某石油化工厂进行研究。持续观察103天,记录现场发生的行为及其背景,然后把观察记录制成行为卡片,通过3名专家对现场观察行为进行分类发现,组织成员主要遵循包括:安全承诺、对规则的看法、对人性的看法、关系取向和权力影响等5类行为规范。其中:安全承诺,尤其是管理对安全的承诺是高风险组织安全文化的关键因素;中国的传统文化,如情境取向、关系取向对员工的不安全行为具有重要影响。     

基于FTA的矿井监控预警诊断知识表示及推理机制

当前的矿井监测监控系统给出的预警结果只能反映传感器所在位置的参数变化,并不能依此判断传感器所在位置就是故障源。研究矿井监控预警诊断专家系统,通过建立矿井通风系统故障树设计面向故障树的基于框架与规则的混合知识表示方法,利用框架中诊断规则的推理确定故障传播关系,找到故障源。设计了矿井监控预警诊断推理机制,利用监控系统对灾变时期的火灾和瓦斯大量涌出以及正常生产时期矿井中的活塞效应、巷道风阻变化、通风构筑物故障、爆破、通风动力故障以及自然风压变化进行故障诊断推理分析,给出监控预警诊断故障源分析界面,为管理人员对矿井正常生产和灾变时期的故障处理提供依据。