黄土区大型露天煤矿土地复垦专家系统的程序设计

介绍了采用智能程序设计语言汉化ＴＵＲＢＯ ＰＲＯＬＧ２．０进行黄土区大型露天煤矿土地复垦专家系统中知识库、推理机、解释机制及知识获取与维护模块的具体程序设计及其实现问题。     

露天煤矿土地复垦适宜性评价专家系统设计

根据大型露煤矿土地复垦适宜性评价的特点，利用可视化语言VC 6．0实现了基于以产生式规则作为知识表达方式的大型露天煤矿土地复垦专家系统的知识库可视化设计。该研究易于应用在具有不同条件下露天矿土地复垦中利用方向和适宜性评价问题。     

The importance of the will to improve: how ‘sustainability’ sidelined local livelihoods in a carbon-forestry investment in Uganda

This paper describes a ‘win–win’ discourse on local sustainable development and global climate change mitigation regarding Kachung, a Swedish–Norwegian climate forestry investment in Uganda certified under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In many ways, this investment is a typical example of how private interests and capital accumulation are prioritised over local concerns in natural resource management under neoliberalism. This study, however, indicated that investors had genuine intentions of creating mutual benefits for the global environment and local people. Drawing on Li (2007), we show that this ‘will to improve’ was nevertheless constructed in ways that resulted in prioritisation of global climate change mitigation over local context-specific concerns.

We identify three core factors making the win–win discourse around Kachung plantation especially resilient: (i) the perceived urgency of climate change mitigation, (ii) the apolitical framing of ‘sustainability’ as an environmental issue that can be fixed through external technical interventions and (iii) the devaluation of local and context-specific knowledge. We end by suggesting that research on the neoliberalisation of nature focus more on analysing the rationales behind specific interventions. This would leave us better equipped to suggest how such interventions should be modified to produce true wins for local contexts.     

An expert system for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents

Introduction. Expert witness reports, prepared with the aim of quantifying fault rates among parties, play an important role in a court's final decision. However, conflicting fault rates assigned by different expert witness boards lead to iterative objections raised by the related parties. This unfavorable situation mainly originates due to the subjectivity of expert judgments and unavailability of objective information about the causes of accidents. As a solution to this shortcoming, an expert system based on a rule-based system was developed for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents. The aim of developing DsSafe is decreasing the subjectivity inherent in expert witness reports. Methodology. Eighty-four inspection reports prepared by the official and authorized inspectors were examined and root causes of construction fall accidents in Turkey were identified. Using this information, an evaluation form was designed and submitted to the experts. Experts were asked to evaluate the importance level of the factors that govern fall accidents and determine the fault rates under different scenarios. Based on expert judgments, a rule-based expert system was developed. The accuracy and reliability of DsSafe were tested with real data as obtained from finalized court cases. Result. DsSafe gives satisfactory results.     

重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型及其应用

将重要基础设施脆弱性定义为威胁情景、保护作用和重要性的函数,并提出一种可定量化的重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型。模型结合系统理论知识分解系统,选取威慑、延迟、检测、响应4个评价因子评估系统各环节。模型由相关领域专家确定系统各环节权重以及为评价因子赋值,应用线性加权聚集模拟技术,综合评价因子信息;依据系统状况,建立系统各环节价值函数,运行模型得到脆弱性概率密度函数,以数学期望值表示系统脆弱性总值。并将模型应用于天津市部分供水系统,不仅得到系统各环节的实际评价值,而且可得整个供水系统脆弱性评价值,为更好地改进天津市供水系统各环节的安全运行提供了科学依据。     

Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.     

Modelling and analysis of sustainable manufacturing system using a digraph-based approach

Abstract

Sustainable manufacturing practices have many benefits like cleaner production, resource efficiency along with economic benefits. Sustainable manufacturing practices focuses on four dimensions environment, economy, business and society. The effective deployment of sustainable concepts mostly depends on interaction of these sustainable dimensions. In this study, an attempt on assessment through modelling has been presented. Mostly two factors determine the sustainable performance of organisation: the performance of the criteria is identified under four dimensions (inheritance) and their interaction (interdependency) among each other. Thus, graph theory-based modelling has been done considering both inheritance and interdependency for computing Overall Organisation Sustainability (OOS) score. Finally, permanent scores for matrices obtained from experts’ team have been computed. OOS score for the organisation has been computed and is compared with the scores of hypothetical scenarios. Through the comparison with hypothetically generated practical best and worst-case scenario, insights have been derived.     

针对瓦斯事故的安全投资效益评估方法研究

煤矿生产中瓦斯事故的发生及其危害程度的不确定性使得定量评价损失很困难.本文提出一种评估煤矿瓦斯事故严重程度和相关安全投资效益的方法.通过分析影响煤矿瓦斯事故发生的主要因素,利用专家调查法推断出瓦斯事故的发生概率和严重程度,进而估计出瓦斯事故的风险度并定量评价相关的安全投资效益.通过这种方法,可以提出各种安全投资方案并进行安全投资效益比较,据此选择安全投资效益最好的安全投资方案进行安全投资决策,最大限度地降低煤矿瓦斯事故的发生概率和危害程度.实例分析表明这种方法是有效的.     

“环境影响评价专家系统”的开发研究

文章分析了研制环境影响评价专家系统的目的和作用，介绍了该专家系统专家知识的主要内容，描述了环境影响评价专家系统的组成结构和主要构件的设计，并介绍了该系统的使用情况。