Analytical discussions on species extinction in competitive communities due to habitat destruction

An improvement of a metapopulation model is developed and used to analyze the behaviors of abundant and extinct species in the system analytically. By approximating the direct effect rate of habitat destructions on individual species using differentiable functions, the model enables us to discuss the equilibrium and stability of the system. Special cases of the habitat destruction functions, constant, piecewise linear, exponential and periodic functions, are discussed analytically and numerically. The conditions for system stability are also given.     

Identifying Anomalous Reports of Putatively Extinct Species and Why It Matters

Abstract:  As species become very rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can stir controversy, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We used quantitative methods to identify reports that do not fit prior sighting patterns. We also examined the effects of including records that meet different evidentiary standards on quantitative extinction assessments for four charismatic bird species that might be extinct: Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ), Ivory-billed Woodpecker ( Campephilus principalis ), Nukupu`u ( Hemignathus lucidus ), and O`ahu `Alauahio ( Paroreomyza maculata ). For all four species the probability of there being a valid sighting today, given the past pattern of verified sightings, was estimated to be very low. The estimates of extinction dates and the chance of new sightings, however, differed considerably depending on the criteria used for data inclusion. When a historical sighting record lacked long periods without sightings, the likelihood of new sightings declined quickly with time since the last confirmed sighting. For species with this type of historical record, therefore, new reports should meet an especially high burden of proof to be acceptable. Such quantitative models could be incorporated into the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List criteria to set evidentiary standards required for unconfirmed sightings of "possibly extinct" species and to standardize extinction assessments across species.     

不同气象条件下的气溶胶时空分布特征

利用2012年3月20—24日的激光雷达回波数据和粒子计数器采样的气溶胶数浓度数据,分析了测点近地面及其上空的气溶胶垂直消光系数、数浓度等时空分布特征,研究了风向、风速、RH(相对湿度)对近地面气溶胶分布的影响. 结果表明:①阴霾天气气溶胶垂直消光系数在0.01～1.0之间,边界层高度在1km以下,到达边界层顶时消光系数产生突变;晴天气溶胶垂直消光系数在0.01~0.2之间,边界层高度在1.5~2.5km. ②阴霾天和晴天中近地面气溶胶数浓度变化规律一致,上午08:00左右开始增加,随温度升高呈下降态势,在傍晚达最小值后又略微增长并产生次高峰,夜间继续呈下降趋势. ③风向为东北偏东风时大气气溶胶的数浓度较大;风速增大,有利于气溶胶垂直输送和扩散,导致气溶胶数浓度减小. ④气-粒转化过程中,RH增大有利于气溶胶粒子由爱根核向积聚模态凝结. ⑤RH较小时,其与气溶胶数浓度呈正相关,而当RH增至74%时二者呈负相关.      

Considering extinction of dependent species during translocation, ex situ conservation, and assisted migration of threatened hosts

Translocation, introduction, reintroduction, and assisted migrations are species conservation strategies that are attracting increasing attention, especially in the face of climate change. However, preventing the extinction of the suite of dependent species whose host species are threatened is seldom considered, and the effects on dependent species of moving threatened hosts are unclear. There is no published guidance on how to decide whether to move species, given this uncertainty. We examined the dependent-host system of 4 disparate taxonomic groups: insects on the feather-leaf banksia (Banksia brownii), montane banksia (B. montana), and Stirling Range beard heath (Leucopogon gnaphalioides); parasites of wild cats; mites and ticks on Duvaucel's gecko (Hoplodactylus duvaucelii) and tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus); and internal coccidian parasites of Cirl Bunting (Emberiza cirlus) and Hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We used these case studies to demonstrate a simple process for use in species- and community-level assessments of efforts to conserve dependents with their hosts. The insects dependent on Stirling Range beard heath and parasites on tigers (Panthera tigris) appeared to represent assemblages that would not be conserved by ex situ host conservation. In contrast, for the cases of dependent species we examined involving a single dependent species (internal parasites of birds and the mite Geckobia naultina on Duvaucel's gecko), ex situ conservation of the host species would also conserve the dependent species. However, moving dependent species with their hosts may be insufficient to maintain viable populations of the dependent species, and additional conservation strategies such as supplementing populations may be needed.     

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species.     

杭州市大气颗粒物消光组分的粒径分布特征研究

2010年8月在杭州市朝晖、云栖、杭钢和下沙4个点位采集了不同粒径大气颗粒物样品,并对其主要消光组分的粒径分布特征进行了分析,包括SO42-、NO3-、NH4+、OC和EC等.同时在朝晖点位对多种气态污染物和多个气象要素进行了同步观测,以评估杭州市能见度下降的影响因素.结果表明:PM2.5、RH、SO2和NO2均与能见度呈一定负相关关系.4个监测点位颗粒物浓度变化均呈双峰型,峰值出现在0.4~0.7μm和9.0~10μm粒径段.以3.3μm为粗细颗粒的分界线,不同监测点位PM10中粗、细颗粒所占比例均等.水溶性离子消光组分的浓度大小顺序为:SO42->NH4+>NO3-. SO42-、NO3-和NH4+均显单峰结构,SO42-和NH4+的峰值出现在0.4~1.1μm的粒径段,NO3-峰值出现在5.8~10μm粒径段.OC显单峰结构,峰值出现在0.4~0.7μm粒径段;EC显双峰结构,峰值出现在0.4~0.7μm和2.1~3.3μm范围内.因而,要解决杭州的能见度问题,应减少细颗粒物,尤其是粒径<1.1μm的颗粒物的污染. NO3-、SO42-、OC和EC对杭州市颗粒物消光能力相对贡献率之比为2.2%:13.7%:29.8%:43.8%.因此要有效控制杭州市大气能见度的降低趋势, 首要的就是控制EC的主要排放源,即机动车尾气的排放.     

Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments

The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species’ distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land-cover change, species-specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5–2.3% and 6.4–14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early-warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction-risk category based on periodic updates of land-cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.     

Modelling strategies for the management of the critically endangered Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) of northern Australia

The Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) is a critically endangered endemic rodent known from only four sandstone gorges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, Northern Territory, Australia. These gorges harbour thickets of monsoon rainforest and broadleaf woodland, surrounded by a Eucalypt savanna matrix. The long-term persistence of Z. palatalis is threatened by altered fire regimes, grazing by feral animals and stock, weed intrusion, and the stochastic hazards associated with small, fragmented populations. To assess the relative importance of these threats and develop practical management options, a population and habitat simulation model was developed, based on the best existing data. Population viability was predicted to be highly sensitive to the frequency of hot, late dry-season fires. Progressive habitat degradation (due predominantly to intense late dry-season fires) is likely to substantially reduce population size and lead to the probable extinction of the species within the next 100 years. The most effective management strategy to counteract this threat would be regular, controlled, fuel reduction burns in the vegetation around the gorge entrances during the early dry season. Establishing a new population (through translocation of captive-bred individuals) would not appreciably reduce extinction risk, but could provide valuable additional data on the impact of threats, if conducted as an adaptive management experiment.     

北京城区PM_(2.5)不同组分构成特征及其对大气消光系数的贡献

为研究北京城区PM2.5不同组分对大气消光系数的贡献率,于2013年10月—2014年8月使用3台PQ200采样器在北京市环境保护科学研究院采集PM2.5样品并进行质量重建,采用IMPROVE方程计算大气消光系数并分析各组分的贡献率.结果表明:1北京城区ρ(PM2.5)年均值为(90.3±8.1)μg/m3,相比2005年有所下降,颗粒物呈弱碱性,NH4+略有剩余.2PM2.5质量重建后,化学构成为OM〔32.1%,为ρ(OM)占ρ(PM2.5)比例,下同〕、NO3-(13.6%)、SO42-(13.9%)、NH4+(11.1%)、Cl-(3.8%)、其他离子(4.0%)、EC(元素碳,5.0%)、FS(土壤尘,8.9%)、微量元素(1.3%)和未知物质(6.7%);与2005年相比,OM、NO3-、NH4+等二次污染物质量浓度占ρ(PM2.5)比例均显著增加,ρ(水溶性离子)占ρ(PM2.5)的比例随空气污染加重而增加.3北京城区大气消光系数年均值为(504.6±49.3)Mm-1,OM、(NH4)2SO4、NH4NO3、EC和FS的贡献率分别为37.5%、28.3%、25.2%、7.6%和1.4%;冬季由于ρ(PM2.5)高,大气消光系数最高,为(589±124.3)Mm-1,约是春季的2倍;夏季由于相对湿度大,PM2.5吸湿粒径增大,大气消光系数仅次于冬季.OM对大气消光系数贡献率为冬季最高,而(NH4)2SO4的贡献率在冬夏季均大于NH4NO3.     

Integrating habitat-masked range maps with quantifications of prevalence to estimate area of occupancy in IUCN assessments

Estimates of species geographic ranges constitute critical input for biodiversity assessments, including those for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Area of occupancy (AOO) is one metric that IUCN uses to quantify a species’ range, but data limitations typically lead to either under- or overestimates (and unnecessarily wide bounds of uncertainty). Fortunately, existing methods in which range maps and land-cover data are used to estimate the area currently holding habitat for a species can be extended to yield an unbiased range of plausible estimates for AOO. Doing so requires estimating the proportion of sites (currently containing habitat) that a species occupies within its range (i.e., prevalence). Multiplying a quantification of habitat area by prevalence yields an estimate of what the species inhabits (i.e., AOO). For species with intense sampling at many sites, presence–absence data sets or occupancy modeling allow calculation of prevalence. For other species, primary biodiversity data (records of a species’ presence at a point in space and time) from citizen-science initiatives and research collections of natural history museums and herbaria could be used. In such cases, estimates of sample prevalence should be corrected by dividing by the species’ detectability. To estimate detectability from these data sources, extensions of inventory-completeness analyses merit development. With investments to increase the quality and availability of online biodiversity data, consideration of prevalence should lead to tighter and more realistic bounds of AOO for many taxonomic groups and geographic regions. By leading to more realistic and representative characterizations of biodiversity, integrating maps of current habitat with estimates of prevalence should empower conservation practitioners and decision makers and thus guide actions and policy worldwide.