南京地区一次灰霾天气的微脉冲激光雷达观测分析

利用微脉冲激光雷达(MPL)对2012年10月南京地区的一次灰霾天气进行了不间断观测,结合地面气象要素和PM10、PM2.5质量浓度资料分析了此次污染过程颗粒物质量浓度、气象要素、气溶胶垂直方向光学特性和混合层高度(MLH)日变化趋势以及相关性并与11月11~12日非灰霾天气做了消光系数和MLH的比较.结果表明,本次灰霾天气颗粒物浓度与近地面消光系数日变化较相似,基本上呈现夜间高午后低的趋势;灰霾期间MLH峰值滞后于地面温度峰值2h,MLH与PM2.5呈现负相关关系,两者相关系数为-0.57;霾天MLH远低于非灰霾天;霾期间近地面消光系数大部分时刻大于1.0km-1,远大于非霾日0.1~0.25km-1范围的消光系数.     

吴淞工业区大气降尘变化规律及趋势

吴淞工业区是重工业聚集区,烟(粉)尘的排放量非常大,造成该地区空气污染严重.为了解降尘的污染特征、变化规律及趋势,以近10 a监测数据为依据,运用方差分析等数理统计方法对工业区降尘量进行分析,检验不同季节降尘的差异并简要分析原因,使用秩相关系数法对其进行趋势分析.结果表明,工业区降尘量较混合区与清洁区明显不同; 工业区与混合区的降尘受本地源的影响较大,4季的降尘量没有明显差异,相反清洁区的4季降尘呈显著差异.10 a来工业区及其周边地区的降尘量下降了56%,说明环境综合整治取得了显著效果,使区域环境空气质量得到改善.     

考虑人为因素的可靠性评估

统计数据表明,系统的可靠运行不可忽略人为误操作造成的故障,该故障发生率有时甚至超过设备本身导致的系统故障发生率。将人为因素与设备自身因素造成的系统故障进行对比,分析人为因素造成系统故障后的特点,可得出人为因素的可靠性参数。根据解析法和模拟法的相关理论计算考虑人为因素的可靠性指标,可以看出考虑人为因素的计算结果更加符合实际运行特点,便于相关人员采取对策,保障系统的安全运行。     

The Iowa Graduated Driver Licensing program: effectiveness in reducing crashes of teenage drivers

PROBLEM: Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers. METHOD: Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation. RESULTS: After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers. DISCUSSION: The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.     

The wild ancestors of domestic animals as a neglected and threatened component of biodiversity

Domestic animals have immense economic, cultural, and practical value and have played pivotal roles in the development of human civilization. Many domesticates have, among their wild relatives, undomesticated forms representative of their ancestors. Resurgent interest in these ancestral forms has highlighted the unclear genetic status of many, and some are threatened with extinction by hybridization with domestic conspecifics. We considered the contemporary status of these ancestral forms relative to their scientific, practical, and ecological importance; the varied impacts of wild–domestic hybridization; and the challenges and potential resolutions involved in conservation efforts. Identifying and conserving ancestral forms, particularly with respect to disentangling patterns of gene flow from domesticates, is complex because of the lack of available genomic and phenotypic baselines. Comparative behavioral, ecological, and genetic studies of ancestral-type, feral, and domestic animals should be prioritized to establish the contemporary status of the former. Such baseline information will be fundamental in ensuring successful conservation efforts.     

ERODIBILITY OF URBAN BEDROCK AND ALLUVIAL CHANNELS,NORTH TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Major erosion of urban stream channels is found in smaller basins in the North Texas study area with contributing drainage areas of less than ten square miles. Within these basins, four basic channel types are identified based on bed and bank lithologies: alluvial banks and bottoms, alluvial banks and gravel bottoms, alluvial banks with rock bottoms, and rock banks with rock bottoms. Most channels (75 percent) have alluvial banks with gravel or rock bottoms. Channel slopes are steep (.38 to.76 percent). Rock consists predominantly of shale and limestone. Channel cross sections are divided into the following four zones based on weathering, scour and entrainment mechanisms: soil zone, slake zone, rock zone and bed material zone. Erodibility of the channels is determined using multiple techniques including reach hydraulics and stream power computations, submerged jet testing, slab entrainment thresholds, and slake durability rates. Procedures are based on both empirical and modeled time series estimates of channel erosion. Field and modeled results support rates of erosion of up to four inches per year. Rates are tied to flow regime, climate, and type of channel bed and banks.     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.