Determining the tourism potential of the Altındere Valley National Park (Trabzon/Turkey) with respect to its conservation value

This study was conducted to determine the tourism potential of Alt?ndere Valley National Park with respect to its conservation and utilization. With its natural values, Alt?ndere Valley National Park is one of the internationally prominent areas of potential for the recreational and touristic facilities it offers.

A mathematical method – criterion referenced method – was applied within this study, which was done to portray the touristic potential (resulting from the touristic and recreational utilization of the national park area and recreational zone) of the national park, which was visited by an average of 200,000 local and foreign guests.

According to this method, the conservation and utilization values that appear on two opposite axes were examined in accordance with the natural resource values of the area, and conservation and utilization values for each criterion were determined. Depending on the data, the general exploitable touristic potential of the area was specified.

A survey study was conducted on groups from various disciplines and local & foreign tourists visiting the area in specifying the touristic potential of the National Park. Eleven criteria were defined concerning the area and a criterion reference was prepared for each criterion. Then, conservation and utilization values for each criterion and exploitable touristic potential were mathematically indicated. The fact that the attained values were reduced to a percentage basis provides the opportunity to compare the researched area to similar fields that use the same method. Within the scope of the method, several suggestions were made using the information obtained in the evaluation of the data for every other source value.     

The livestock production system in a village ecosystem in the Rawain Valley,Uttarakhand, Central Himalaya

Animals in the Himalayan region are reared basically to supplement the family income and sustain crop production, and constitute an important component of the rural economy of the region. Given the ecological importance of the livestock production system in terms of intrinsic values as a life support system for local people and a contribution towards sustainable agriculture through its role in the maintenance of soil fertility, the present study was conducted. This paper describes and assesses the current status of livestock production systems, monetary input/output, status of available forest resources, current level of pressure on the livestock production system and recommends strategies for sustainable development of a livestock production system in the Rawain Valley of Central Himalaya.     

Sustainable design of sanitation system based on material and value flow analysis for urban slum in Indonesia

Material flow analysis (MFA) and value flow analysis (VFA) were applied to the sanitation system in an urban slum in Indonesia. Based on the results of the MFA and VFA, garbage and excreta disposal costs were evaluated to be 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, of per capita income. Such value flows seem reasonable in light of the recognized affordability to pay (ATP) standard. However, current excreta disposal methods create negative impacts on downstream populations. Because such disadvantages do not go back to disposers, but passed to downstream, the current value flow structure does not motivate individual toilet users to install treatment facility. Based on current material and value flow structures, a resource recycling sanitation system scenario was examined. Based on VFA, an affordable initial cost for such a system was calculated; this was found to be comparable in price to a cheaper composting toilet that is currently available in the market.     

多元联系数的集对分析法在城市燃气埋地管道系统危险性评价中的应用

城市燃气埋地管道系统中存在诸多不确定因素,集对分析是处理不确定性问题的系统分析方法,它将系统中确定与不确定因素作为一个整体进行处理。针对多元联系数集对分析评价方法存在的不足,讨论其使用条件,运用集对分析的多元联系数对系统的危险等级进行划分。为了减轻评价者的主观影响,根据评价专家的综合素质,对评价专家进行权重赋值。最后将评价结果与集对势相结合对系统的危险性进行综合分析,使得评价结果更符合系统的发展变化特点。     

基于投影寻踪技术的洪水灾情综合评价

洪水灾情评价结果对救灾和援灾决策有重要指导意义。实际灾情评价中,单项指标的评价结果往往是不相容的,而多指标综合评价的重点在于模型指标权重的获取。将投影寻踪技术用于洪水灾情评价中,并将决策者的偏好添加到模型中,建立一个能在专家对某个(些)指标偏好干预下寻求客观权重的灾情综合评价模型,并研究模型的优化问题。结果表明,在多指标评价中,投影寻踪技术是一种能根据样本数据进行综合评价的客观方法,并能兼顾决策者对某个(些)指标的偏好。     

改进GM(1,1)模型在我国危险化学品事故预测中的应用

针对传统GM(1,1)模型建模方法存在偏差,当发展系数的绝对值较大时,模型偏差较大,无法用于中长期预测,甚至不能做短期预测等问题.从优化GM(1,1)背景值出发,通过提高背景值的构造精度,实现对传统GM(1,1)模型的改进,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现模型的模拟和预测,并将其应用于我国危险化学品事故起数及死亡人数预测.实例结果表明,改进GM(1,1)模型无论对变化平缓的低增长序列,还是变化急剧的高增长序列,都有较好的适应性,及更好的拟合和预测效果,为提高建模精度提供了新的途径.     

灰色系统理论在高校学生公寓火灾风险评价中的应用

针对高校学生公寓火灾的安全问题,参考相关标准、征求专家意见,建立了高校学生公寓火灾风险评价指标体系,并确定了权重。在此基础上,根据灰色系统理论原理对高校学生公寓火灾风险评价进行研究,建立评价模型,运用改进后的多层次灰色关联度分析法对青岛市某高校10#学生公寓的火灾风险进行评价,得出火灾风险等级为二级,即安全。研究结果表明,所建立的评价模型对学生公寓火灾的风险评价具有良好的应用价值,也为火灾风险评价提供了一种新的综合评价方法。     

苍头赤泥灰渣堆场安全性分析

介绍了苍头赤泥灰渣堆场情况,从坝体位移观测、环境安全、防洪方面对该堆场进行了分析。认为苍头赤泥灰渣堆场处于安全状态,并对坝体管理提出建议。该分析方法对同类尾矿库的安全性评价具有指导意义。     

青藏高原植被固定CO2释放O2的经济价值评估

基于研究区植被生产有机质的物质量,结合遥感和野外观测数据,利用生态经济学方法,测算了青藏高原近20年植被固碳释氧(固定CO₂释放O₂)的经济价值. 结果表明:青藏高原植被每年固定CO₂总量为28.1×108 t,释放O₂总量为20.8×108 t;青藏高原植被固碳释氧的总价值为15.6×1011 元/a,利用造林成本法估算植被固定CO₂的价值为7.3×1011 元/a,利用工业制氧法估算植被释放O₂的价值为8.3×1011 元/a;从不同植被类型来看,灌丛的服务价值贡献率最大,亚热带常绿针叶林的单位面积价值最高;在水平方向上,植被固碳释氧价值受降水和植被分布影响,自东南向西北逐渐降低;在垂直方向上,生态系统服务价值受地形影响较大.      

Hierarchical modeling for extreme values observed over space and time

We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values. We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization. In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications; we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be the best choice of model.