岷江水系河水与沉积物中稀土,稀有元素背景值及其特征初探

报告了岷江水系河水及沉积物中８种稀土元素（Ｌａ，Ｃｅ，Ｎｄ，Ｓｍ，Ｅｕ，Ｔｂ，Ｙｂ，Ｌｕ）及８种稀有元素（Ｒｂ，Ｃｓ，Ｓｒ，Ｂａ，Ｓｂ，Ｔｈ，Ｓｃ，Ｕ）的背景值及其特征，并对元素的排列顺序及元素间的相关关系进行了初步探索，还列出了１６种元素在原水同积物中的相关矩阵及相互间的相关回归方程。     

1961—2017年青藏高原极端降水特征分析

基于青藏高原78个气象站点的逐日降水数据,采用百分位阈值法确定极端降水阈值,计算极端降水指数并分析其时空分布特征,以期为区域气候变化预测及防灾减灾对策的制定提供参考。结果表明：（1）1961—2017年青藏高原年降水量表现出上升趋势,上升速率为8.06 mm/10 a,多年平均降水量达472.36 mm。78个站点的年降水量倾向率最小值为-25.46 mm/10 a,最大值为43.02 mm/10 a,有15.38%的站点降水在下降,较为集中地分布在高原的东部和南部,其余84.62%的站点降水量在上升。（2）青藏高原各站点极端降水阈值的平均值为23.11 mm,取值范围为7.84~51.90 mm。高值中心出现在横断山区的贡山和木里,低值中心出现在柴达木盆地及昆仑山北翼区。（3）青藏高原各站点的极端降水量、极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率均表现出了明显的上升趋势,极端降水强度虽然也在上升但趋势并不明显,表明青藏高原极端降水量的上升并非是极端降水的强度引起的,而是由极端降水频次的上升引起的。柴达木盆地的极端降水量和极端降水日数虽然并没有表现出高值水平,但该地区的极端降水贡献率却表现出较高水平,表明该区域虽然降水量较少,但是降水往往以极端降水的形式产生。     

最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法,分析0~30d滞后影响,研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41,变化趋势整体呈现出V字型,在低温附近,温度越低,RR越高;滞后0~4d,极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著;滞后5~19d,在日均最低温度0℃附近,出现新的峰值,冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降,热效应对RR的贡献完全消失;滞后20~30d,日均最低温度为-10℃时,出现RR最小值,0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值;滞后22d时,滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下,呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性,对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长,患病风险更大.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

Understanding the effects of different social data on selecting priority conservation areas

Conservation success is contingent on assessing social and environmental factors so that cost‐effective implementation of strategies and actions can be placed in a broad social–ecological context. Until now, the focus has been on how to include spatially explicit social data in conservation planning, whereas the value of different kinds of social data has received limited attention. In a regional systematic conservation planning case study in Australia, we examined the spatial concurrence of a range of spatially explicit social values and land‐use preferences collected using a public participation geographic information system and biological data. We used Zonation to integrate the social data with the biological data in a series of spatial‐prioritization scenarios to determine the effect of the different types of social data on spatial prioritization compared with biological data alone. The type of social data (i.e., conservation opportunities or constraints) significantly affected spatial prioritization outcomes. The integration of social values and land‐use preferences under different scenarios was highly variable and generated spatial prioritizations 1.2–51% different from those based on biological data alone. The inclusion of conservation‐compatible values and preferences added relatively few new areas to conservation priorities, whereas including noncompatible economic values and development preferences as costs significantly changed conservation priority areas (48.2% and 47.4%, respectively). Based on our results, a multifaceted conservation prioritization approach that combines spatially explicit social data with biological data can help conservation planners identify the type of social data to collect for more effective and feasible conservation actions.     

Value Plurality among Conservation Professionals

Abstract: Debate on the values that underpin conservation science is rarely based on empirical analysis of the values conservation professionals actually hold. We used Q methodology to investigate the values held by international conservation professionals who attended the annual Student Conference in Conservation Science at the University of Cambridge (U.K.) in 2008 and 2009. The methodology offers a quantitative means of examining human subjectivity. It differs from standard opinion surveys in that individual respondents record the way they feel about statements relative to other statements, which forces them to focus their attention on the issues they believe are most important. The analysis extracts the diverse viewpoints of the respondents, and factor analysis is used to reduce the viewpoints to a smaller set of factors that reflect shared ways of thinking. The junior conservation professionals attending the conference did not share a unifying set of core values; rather, they held a complex series of ideas and a plurality of opinions about conservation and how it should be pursued. This diversity of values empirically challenges recent proposals for conservation professionals to unite behind a single philosophy. Attempts to forge an artificial consensus may be counterproductive to the overall goals conservation professionals are pursuing.     

中国二氧化硫污染的“稳健性”影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就.然而,随着经济的快速增长,环境污染问题也日益凸显.本文采用2000—2012年中国30个省际的面板数据,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论检验二氧化硫(SO2)污染与经济增长的关系及其空间溢出效应,进而引入极值边界模型(EBA模型)实证检验SO2污染的"稳健性"影响因素.结果表明:我国各省域SO2污染与经济增长存在EKC曲线假设的倒"U"型关系,并具有空间溢出效应;第二产业就业人口比重、出口占GDP的比重、能源效率、化石能源比重、工业污染治理完成投资与SO2排放量呈正向"稳健性"关系,产业结构升级与SO2排放量呈负向"稳健性"关系.最后根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议,为政府制定相应的SO2减排政策提供经验证据和决策参考.     

西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。     

中小城市空气环境指标的多角度分析研究——以楚雄市为例

文章根据楚雄市空气污染数据,采用统计的方法从不同的角度探求中小城市空气污染指标的变化规律,并求出三种污染物的同时置信区间及它们之间的关联性。结果表明:楚雄市的空气污染主要由SO2造成,室外空气质量能达到一类地区的水平,三种污染物之间两两相关性较弱,但整体相关性较强,同时根据结论提出了相应的建议。     

Institutions for a sustainable development—experiences from EU-countries

This article is based on an international comparative study analysing innovations in national administrative institutions. Results of that research are presented and discussed here. Against the background of the institutionalising process of political institutions the study focused on innovations initiated or introduced by governments or parliaments by example of policies and politics supporting sustainable development. The countries involved in the original study were Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Three general lessons can be drawn: (1) Countries with a long tradition of integrated environmental policy-making are more open to the concept of sustainability. (2) A (institutional) “cure-all” solution does not seem to exist. It seems necessary to diffuse the concept of sustainability into all spheres of politics and society. Reaching this strategic goal requires a specific policy and polity mix. (3) Strong and well-equipped institutions result from specific policies and politics: they play a central role in promoting and intensifying sustainable development. Successful innovations integrating SD into everyday politics and policies are only a very first step though. Further improvements with regard to effective participation and public debate, global orientation of policies and the measurability of achieved progress are necessary.