基于保护地下水的北京市土壤通用筛选值推导

分别采用三相平衡耦合地下水稀释模型(以下称方法1)和SESOIL耦合地下水稀释模型(以下称方法2)对北京市不同水文地质条件(永定河山前冲洪积扇顶部区域、中上部区域和下部区域)下27种VOCs(挥发性有机污染物)、31种SVOCs(半挥发性有机污染物)、11种农药/PCBs(多氯联苯)及二英基于保护地下水的土壤通用筛选值进行推导. 结果表明,下部区域土壤通用筛选值最保守,顶部区域次之,中上部区域最宽松. 采用方法1推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值分别是顶部区域和下部区域的1.1~1.4、9.9~34.9倍,顶部区域土壤通用筛选值是下部的10.7~24.9倍;采用方法2推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值是下部区域的9.8~49.9倍. 对于有连续非饱和带弱水层的中上部区域及下部区域,方法2推导的结果较方法1宽松. 其中,PAHs(多环芳烃)、PCBs、二英、多数农药及酯类等高K_oc(有机碳-水分配系数)污染物均难以穿透清洁非饱和土壤进入地下水;而对于VOCs、酚类等低K_oc污染物,方法2推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值普遍是方法1的4.3~18.4倍,下部区域为方法1的3.0~24.6倍. 考虑到土壤通用筛选值应具有风险筛选功能及一定保守性,建议各种污染物以顶部区域方法1推导结果及中上部区域和下部区域方法2推导结果中最保守的值作为北京市基于保护地下水的土壤通用筛选值.      

The evaluation of ecology-based tourism potential in coastal villages in accordance with landscape values and user demands: the Bursa-Mudanya-Kumyaka case

Ecology-based tourism, which is integrated with nature, developed in environmentally conscious areas and enriched by different cultures, has become more important in the direction of extending tourism throughout the year. While the landscape values of the area are important functions for tourism activities to be carried out in natural characteristics, the preferences of the users are also important. Ecology-based tourism, which develops in connection with the concepts of intacteness, the protection-use balance and sustainability, and the demands and expectations of tourists, constitute the basis of our study. For this purpose, the study was carried out in Kumyaka, a small coastal neighborhood (village) of the county of Mudanya in the province Bursa, Turkey with important natural, historical and cultural assets. Fieldwork, field analysis, literature search, interviews with tourists coming to the field, interviews with the day trippers and survey work were conducted in the study. While evaluating the ecology-based tourism potential of the area, the demands and expectations of tourists have been taken into account together with the available area data. According to the results of the survey, tourists are mostly interested in having the most scenic value and quietness when choosing the area. The types of tourism that tourists most wanted to experience in the field were 42.38% culture tourism and 32.32% nature tourism. As a result of tourists’ demands and expectations, the tourism activities to be carried out in accordance with the possibilities of the area were examined and ecology based planning proposals and holistic planning approaches were developed.     

Environmental values and willingness to pay for a protected area: a segmentation of Italian university students

The study investigated students’ attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) for the protection of some environmental values. The empirical study refers to a site located in Southern Italy and inserted into the Natura 2000 European Network. Students were segmented according to their appreciation of environmental values and the WTP for them. We considered two scenarios of the study site – of use and non-use – and four values – recreational, educational, bequest and existence. Five clusters, from the ‘unconcerned’ to the ‘committed’ one, reveal a diversity of profiles across the sample. Segmentation results point out the multifunctionality of the environmental heritage and highlight the heterogeneity of students’ environmental profiles.     

The values and vulnerabilities of ‘Star Wars Island’: exploring tensions in the sustainable management of the Skellig Michael World Heritage Site

This paper explores challenges in reconciling the cultural, economic and ecological pillars of the sustainable development concept. It does so by examining how conflicts in the management of an island off the Irish coast called Skellig Michael, which has been internationally designated for its significant cultural and ecological attributes, have been intensified by: (a) increasing tourist numbers; (b) a re-framing of the site’s identity and (c) changing visitor motivations. These have resulted from the amplified attention the island has received following the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi in which it features prominently. Following a critical identification and discussion of the fault lines between different stakeholders involved in the conservation and use of the island, the paper advances a roadmap for action to help resolve animosity in the governance of the site and facilitate its sustainable management in the context of changing visitor numbers and profiles.     

基于RF-ELM模型的边坡稳定性预测研究

为实现对边坡稳定性的有效预测,将极限学习机算法与旋转森林算法相结合,并依据影响边坡稳定性的六项重要因素,建立了边坡稳定性预测的RF-ELM预测模型。该模型是以极限学习机算法为基分类器,以旋转森林算法为框架的集成学习模型,利用UCI数据库中三组数据集验证了该集成模型确实提高了ELM的预测性能。将RF-ELM模型应用于边坡稳定性的预测问题中,结合39组工程实例数据进行预测实验,结果表明该模型具有较高的预测精度,可有效的对边坡稳定性进行预测。     

Ranked set sample design for environmental investigations

Ranked set sampling can provide an efficient basis for estimating parameters of environmental variables, particularly when sampling costs are intrinsically high. Various ranked set estimators are considered for the population mean and contrasted in terms of their efficiencies and useful- ness, with special concern for sample design considerations. Specifically, we consider the effects of the form of the underlying random variable, optimisation of efficiency and how to allocate sampling effort for best effect (e.g. one large sample or several smaller ones of the same total size). The various prospects are explored for two important positively skew random variables (lognormal and extreme value) and explicit results are given for these cases. Whilst it turns out that the best approach is to use the largest possible single sample and the optimal ranked set best linear estimator (ranked set BLUE), we find some interesting qualitatively different conclusions for the two skew distributions     

Evaluating the conservation impact of Antarctica's protected areas

Antarctic specially protected areas (ASPAs) are a key regulatory mechanism for protecting Antarctic environmental values. Previous evaluations of the effectiveness of the ASPA system focused on its representativeness and design characteristics, presenting a compelling rationale for its systematic revision. Upgrading the system could increase the representation of values within ASPAs, but representation alone does not guarantee the avoided loss or improvement of those values. Identifying factors that influence the effectiveness of ASPAs would inform the design and management of an ASPA system with the greatest capacity to deliver its intended conservation outcomes. To facilitate evaluations of ASPA effectiveness, we devised a research and policy agenda that includes articulating a theory of change for what outcomes ASPAs generate and how; building evaluation principles into ASPA design and designation processes; employing complementary approaches to evaluate multiple dimensions of effectiveness; and extending evaluation findings to identify and exploit drivers of positive conservation impact. Implementing these approaches will enhance the efficacy of ASPAs as a management tool, potentially leading to improved outcomes for Antarctic natural values in an era of rapid global change. Evaluación del impacto de conservación de las áreas protegidas de la Antártida     

汉江流域1960~2014年降雨极值时空变化特征

深入研究降雨极值的时空变化规律和特点,有助于提高应对极端灾害的能力。通过构建PDS/GP模型,并引入降雨极值变化指标,结合统计检验分析汉江流域15个气象站点1960~2014年春、夏、秋季以及全年月降雨超定量系列的年际变化特征;利用复杂网络理论的聚类系数和节点度,结合各站点在典型年份春、夏和秋季的降雨极值变化指标,分析月降雨极值的空间分布特征。分析结果表明：从时间上看,汉江流域月降雨极值年际变化的季节性差异较大,近55 a没有明显的一致性变化趋势。受季风气候影响,夏季的月降雨极值年际变化与春、秋季相反,而秋季的变异指标年际波动最大。从空间上看,受季风气候、下垫面条件和人类活动等多种因素的综合作用,中下游月降雨极值变化的差异性要高于上游。随着相关阈值的增大,流域站网总体关联度有所降低。相同阈值下的结果表明空间上相邻的站点其关联性差异较大,部分相距较远的站点具有更大的关联性,分析结果可为降雨极值的空间插值提供参考。     

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate‐ and disaster‐related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high‐risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined.     

冬小麦旱灾风险评价的指标体系构建及应用——基于2009年北方春旱野外实地考察的认识

2009年2月初,我国北方冬麦区遭受了数十年未遇的严重干旱。基于野外实地考察,判断本次干旱对冬小麦造成的实际影响比气象统计与遥感监测结果要轻,同时因纬度、地貌类型、微地貌和田间管理水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异。在此基础上,提出应在已有的旱灾致灾指标（气象干旱）基础上,综合考虑地带性、地貌、水库等孕灾环境指标和田间管理水平等灾害适应指标来构建冬小麦旱灾风险的综合评价指标体系。并以北方冬麦区为例,选取SPI、地貌类型、DEM和水库缓冲区等指标得到的旱灾综合风险等级与实际旱情存在较高的吻合性。研究可为高风险区的冬小麦旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和案例支撑。