基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析

论文利用中国1961—2012年602个测站均一化的日降水资料,基于世界气象组织定义的11个极端降水指数,分析了近52 a中国极端降水事件的时空分布特征。结果表明：年极端降水指数长期变化趋势表明,大部分极端降水指数在我国西北和长江中下游地区（除CDD）以及东南沿海和华南大部分地区均呈现增加趋势,而在华北地区为减少趋势。极端降水指数随时间的变化表明,各指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,从2000年开始大部分指数表现为不同程度的增加趋势,即极端降水事件从2000年开始偏多。     

Characterizing Spatial Uncertainty when Integrating Social Data in Conservation Planning

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches.     

基于门限极值理论的湖泊水质参照状态的确定

在前人工作的基础上,利用门限极值的广义Pareto分布理论和超出阈值峰(Peak Over Threshold,POT)方法,提出了一种确定湖泊参照状态浓度的新方法.该方法不仅能够给出更为精确的置信区间,而且克服了广义极值分布理论取用数据浪费等缺陷.将该方法应用到太湖的水质基准参照状态中,通过POT方法对太湖8个站点1995~2006年总氮(TN),总磷(TP)和叶绿素a(Chl-a)的数据进行预处理,分别以-1.0mg/L, -0.05mg/L与-4μg/L作为它们观测值相反数的门限值,结果表明观测值的相反数符合广义Pareto分布,验证了方法的可行性.推荐采用25%分位点的值作为太湖总氮,总磷和叶绿素a的参照状态,即太湖的参照状态是:总氮0.66mg/L;总磷0.023mg/L;叶绿素a为1.27μg/L.最后分别得出了它们各自的95%置信区间,而且其精度明显高于广义极值分布理论结果.     

污染场地土壤中Cd人体可给性影响因素及对筛选值的影响

采用Unified bioaccessibility model (UBM) 模拟胃肠消化的方法测试了来自湖南、广西和大连12个污染土壤样品中Cd的人体可给性.结果显示,Cd在胃提取阶段的可给性为12.24%~81.10%,平均值为53.60%,肠提取阶段的可给性为2.01%~43.30%,平均值为19.74%.胃提取阶段的可给性浓度仅与总镉(TCd) (P<0.000, n=12)和总锰(TMn) (P=0.04, n=12)显著正相关,肠提取阶段的可给性浓度与TCd (P<0.001, n=12)、胃阶段Cd的可给性浓度(P<0.001, n=12)以及TMn(P=0.05, n=12)均显著正相关.胃阶段基于土壤中TCd和TP含量能较好的预测Cd在胃阶段的可给性浓度,模型决定系数(R2)达到0.992,肠阶段基于Cd在胃阶段的可给性浓度及土壤pH值能较好的预测其在肠阶段的可给性浓度,R2达到0.999.考虑土壤中Cd在胃中的可给性时,居住及工商业情形下土壤筛选值分别提升至未考虑可给性时的1.8倍(以可给性平均值计算)和1.2倍(以可给性最大值计算).考虑土壤中Cd在肠阶段的可给性时,居住及工商业情形下土壤筛选值分别提升至未考虑可给性时的5.0倍(以可给性平均值计算)和2.3倍(以可给性最大值计算).     

Estimating the opportunity costs of biodiversity protection in the Brigalow Belt, New South Wales

The New South Wales Government recently introduced the Native Vegetation Conservation Act to protect the native grassland and woodland of the state. The Act protects biodiversity by preventing farmers from clearing such vegetation on their properties but, as a consequence, reduces farm incomes and land values. An economic model of the relationship between land value and percentage of farm in native vegetation is integrated with an ecological model of the relationship between species lost and percentage of the farms in native vegetation. The integrated framework is applied to estimate the opportunity costs of the Act for one important agricultural area of the state, the northern part of the Brigalow Belt South Bio-Region. If all the vegetation were protected, the reduction in land value would be at least 14.3%, which is an opportunity cost of at least 148.5 dollars m for the area. Both the benefits and costs of biodiversity protection must be accounted for, so risk simulations are then combined with benefit-cost analysis to compare the benefits of biodiversity protection to these costs.     

Does improved waste treatment have demonstrable biological benefits?

Since 1972, 10 benthic surveys and 9 static fish bioassays have been conducted to assess the impact of AVTEX Fibers, Inc. effluent on the lower South Fork of the Shenandoah River. AVTEX (formerly FMC Corp.) is a rayon and polyester fibers plant located in Front Royal, Virginia. Benthic samples were taken at four stations, one above and three below the plant discharges. Single surveys in 1972 and 1973 indicated a severe impact on the benthic community along the right side of the river, below the plant, as a result of the channelized effluent. Diversity values (¯d) were low (0–2.42) and numbers of taxa and organisms were reduced. A fish bioassay in 1973 indicated the effluent to be acutely toxic at the 34.5% level (mixture of effluent and river water). In early 1974, FMC Corp. constructed an activated sludge treatment system to reduce BOD and supplement the neutralization and chemical precipitation (zinc hydroxide and liquid-solid separation) facilities that had been used to treat waste waters since 1948. After the new equipment was placed in operation, the previously stressed area became more stable. In 1975 and 1976 the stressed area exhibited greater ¯d values (1.19–3.39) and an increased number of taxa and organisms. Bioassays showed the effluent to be acutely toxic to fish only once since 1973. The major improvements in the effluent were a 70% reduction in BOD₅ and a 60% reduction in the amount of zinc entering the river. Community conditions in 1977 indicated a partial remission of improvement, probably due to drought conditions.The rehabilitation of damaged ecosystems is a process important to all biologists. An important factor in encouraging industry to participate in this activity is evidence that improved waste treatment will often have demonstrable biological benefits rather soon. As data accumulate on the recovery process it may be possible to predict the degree of rehabilitation and time required more precisely.     

WILD RIVERS - METHODS FOR EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Two analytical methods are presented and demonstrated for evaluating the monetary and nonmonetary benefits of wild rivers. In the traditional benefit-cost context special techniques are required to show that any wild river is worthy of preservation. The methods presented allow for the possibility of low development levels in river basins to be optimal, although advanced development can also be shown to be most efficient in some circumstances. That is, the methods are not directed to the wild condition only but to the entire spectrum of development possibilities. The applications of the methods to two adjacent subbasins in the State of Washington each showed that the currently undeveloped basin should be left in its wild condition, while the partially developed basin next door should be developed even more fully.     

LIMITS ON THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAME OF REFERENCE IN WATER RESOURCE DECISION-MAKING1

Study of water resource decision-making in Massachusetts demonstrates the existence of many institutional constraints such as the established fee system for consulting engineers, the funding of certain agencies, the institutionalization of equity concerns, overrepresentation of interests, and incompatibility of agency goals. These institutional constraints are attributable in part to certain broadly-based value-orientations such as the American pragmatic tradition. However, various lines of evidence indicate that these constraints are less important than other factors in the etiology of decisional outcomes. The outcomes of the decision processes were found to be at variance with the decisions studied, a fact leading to the conclusion that choice of decisions for study should be given more attention. The authors conclude that institutional constraints are important if one is interested in studying how decisions are made, but that what actually happens in the long run cannot be easily ascertained by studying either institutions or the decision-making process. They suggest the need for more research utilizing the incremental theories of Carl Lindblom and the side-effect theories of Albert O. Hirschman.     

THE IMPACT OF WATER RESOURCE QUALITY CHANGES ON SURROUNDING PROPERTY VALUES1

ABSTRACT: A case study is used to demonstrate a methodology for measuring the residential property value benefit of water pollution abatement. Increases in the value of single-family homes attributable to improvement in the water quality of the nearby Willamette River (Clackamas County, Oregon) were measured using a regression analysis technique. Sales prices and tax assessment data were used to estimate the change in property values coincident with the changes in water quality. The percentage increase in property value due to pollution abatement is expressed as a function of the distance between properties and the river bank.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY PLANNING MODEL FOR WATER AND FISHERY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary model that analyzes the effects of resource management decisions on New Mexico fishery production, yield, sportfishing effort, and economic benefit to anglers. The model recreates river flows and materials transported through reservoirs and their tailwaters from 1974 through 1987. Solar radiation, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, suspended solids, and water exchange rates determine primary production. Organic loads from watershed sources, added to primary production, form a trophic base for sportfish forage. Fish production is partitioned into biomass and growth of each age class in sportfish and forage fish groups by differential responses to food type, light, water-level fluctuation and predation. Fish biomass, with angler population distribution and site condition, contributes to determining angler effort and economic benefits. Model users can vary and analyze water level and quality, stocking, fishing regulations, site access, site facilities, and site entry fees. The model (on floppy disks with a user manual) is available for operation on MS DOS compatible computers with a hard disk. Contact R. M. Wilson, NMGF, State Capitol, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 87503.