Population collapses in the pre-modern period: case study of the Fuping County,Northwest China

The pre-modern history of population change in the Fuping County (Shaanxi Province, China) during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (AD 1368–1911) was reconstructed using historical sources. The Fuping County experienced two major population collapses, i.e. the late Ming Dynasty (1550–1640s) and the 1860–1880s. The first one was caused by the great AD 1556 earthquake and the extreme droughts and warfare in the 1630–1640s. The second one was caused by warfare and extreme droughts. As a whole, natural disasters, including extreme drought and great earthquake, were the key direct causes of population collapse, and climatic cooling would be a potential indirect cause. It is very interesting that population collapses occurred almost synchronously in the Fuping County and whole China, and the trends of population change were also very similar. Climate–population relationship in China would be valid at finer geographic level, and climatic cooling could be a potential indirect cause of population collapse.     

经验正交函数方法和TRMM数据对长江流域降水模式与极端水文过程的研究

气候变化加剧了极端天气和水文事件的发生,降水是区域干旱与洪水事件最直接驱动因素。以TRMM/PR月累积降水反演遥感数据为基础,利用经验正交函数EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法对长江流域降水时空变化模式进行提取,并对比分析了主要模式振幅强弱与极端水文事件的对应关系。结果表明在流域尺度上EOF方法及TRMM/PR数据可以较好地识别降水主要模式,通过时空尺度变换成功揭示主要降水模式强弱与流域极端水文事件的对应关系。鉴于日益丰富的巨量水文气象时空数据,EOF方法在模式提取、水文模拟、极端事件预估及灾害适应性研究等方面具有应用潜力     

A Protocol to Select High Quality Datasets of Ecotoxicity Values for Pesticides

Abstract

The key to any QSAR model is the underlying dataset. In order to construct a reliable dataset to develop a QSAR model for pesticide toxicity, we have derived a protocol to critically evaluate the quality of the underlying data. In developing an appropriate protocol that would enable data to be selected in constructing a QSAR, we concentrated on one toxicity end point, the 96 h LC50 from the acute rainbow trout study. This end point is key in pesticide regulation carried out under 91/414/EEC. The dataset used for this exercise was from the US EPA-OPP database.     

武汉市主要年气候要素及其极值变化趋势

根据武汉市1951~2007年57年间主要气候要素及其极值的年序列（共17个）,通过趋势分析和年代际比较分析,揭示武汉市气候变化对全球气候变化和当地城市化的响应。结果表明：武汉市5项气温均表现出一致的升温趋势,其中平均气温、平均最低气温、极端最低气温最明显,1970年代中后期升温速度加快; 4项降水要素变化均不显著,只有年降水日数接近信度01的显著性,其中年降水量为弱的增加趋势,同时有明显的年代际差异,1950、1980、1990等年代明显偏大（多）,年降水日数、最大日降水量为减少趋势,但暴雨日数是增加的;年平均和最小相对湿度均呈现下降趋势,但年平均相对湿度达到极显著程度;平均风速、最大和极大风速以及大风日数一致性极显著减小;日照时数表现为减少趋势;年平均气压为先升后降,上升趋势不明显。可见武汉市各项气温、风速及其极值、相对湿度、日照时数等变化显著,降水、气压变化不显著,这些变化是全球气候变暖和城市化进程共同作用的结果.     

三峡水库对区域气候影响的数值模拟分析

利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3模拟了三峡水库建成后,由于下垫面变化对区域气候的影响,并探讨了三峡水库的建成是否为引发社会广泛关注的高温干旱和低温雨雪冰冻灾害等极端天气的主要因素。研究表明:三峡水库的建成对当地气温具有海洋性效应,库区附近春季温度变低,夏季在水库下游气温升高、上游则气温降低,而冬季则以升温为主;春季降水变化主要位于库区沿线的南部山区,增雨带和减雨带相间分布,夏季降水量在三峡库区中上游地区和附近的山区呈增加趋势,在库区下游及附近地区降水呈减少趋势,冬季降水量减少,主要集中在大坝附近地区到三峡(巫山)段;春季库区的相对湿度增加,幅度多在0.5%～1.0%,夏季相对湿度的影响也存在正负两种效应,大坝上游库区附近相对湿度增加,大坝下游地区相对湿度降低,冬季变幅不大;三峡水利工程不是干旱、低温雨雪冰冻等极端天气出现的主因,它对极端天气事件的影响并不明显。     

总氮测定中空白吸光值的控制方法

分析了总氮测定过程中影响空白值的一些因素及控制方法。总氮测定过程中,消解温度和时间、蒸馏水纯度、试剂选用和存放时间、器皿洁净度等等均会影响到试验空白吸光值。笔者提出采用消解温度控制在120～124℃、消解时间在45 min、空白样消解后加入蒸馏水、选用分析纯试剂、试剂存放时间小于7 d等措施可以有效地控制试验空白吸光值。     

Detection, isolation, and identification of cadmium-resistant bacteria based on PCR-DGGE

This study focused on the screening of cadmium-resistant bacterial strains from Pb-Zn tailing. We investigated the diversity of microbial community inhabiting Dong-san-cha Pb-Zn tailing in Beijing, China, by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis （DGGE） of 16S rRNA gene of bacterial strain, and found two dominant strains in the DGGE profile. Using special culture media, we isolated two strong cadmium-resistant bacterial strains. On the basis of morphological, physiological, and biochemical characteristics, BIOLOG, and 16S rDNA sequencing, the two strains were identified as Bacillus cereus and Enterobacter cloacae. Minimal inhibitory concentrations （MICs） of heavy metals for the bacteria were determined. E. cloacae showed higher MIC values for heavy metals and a larger range of antibiotic resistance than B. cereus.     

人工湿地环境经济价值评价及实例研究

在人工湿地污水自然处理技术应用中提出,人工湿地价值体系由环境经济价值和成本价值组成,环境经济价值由环境容量价值、资源价值和社会价值组成,成本价值由维护价值和人工改造价值组成;采用权变评价法探讨了人工湿地环境经济价值的评价程序和计算方法.以沈阳市马官桥人工湿地为例,采取问卷调查和数理统计方法,计算出马官桥人工湿地总价值为15 789.7万元,总经济效益为8 227.3万元,成本效益比为1∶6.3,表明环境经济效益显著.