Population collapses in the pre-modern period: case study of the Fuping County,Northwest China

The pre-modern history of population change in the Fuping County (Shaanxi Province, China) during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (AD 1368–1911) was reconstructed using historical sources. The Fuping County experienced two major population collapses, i.e. the late Ming Dynasty (1550–1640s) and the 1860–1880s. The first one was caused by the great AD 1556 earthquake and the extreme droughts and warfare in the 1630–1640s. The second one was caused by warfare and extreme droughts. As a whole, natural disasters, including extreme drought and great earthquake, were the key direct causes of population collapse, and climatic cooling would be a potential indirect cause. It is very interesting that population collapses occurred almost synchronously in the Fuping County and whole China, and the trends of population change were also very similar. Climate–population relationship in China would be valid at finer geographic level, and climatic cooling could be a potential indirect cause of population collapse.     

武汉市主要年气候要素及其极值变化趋势

根据武汉市1951~2007年57年间主要气候要素及其极值的年序列（共17个）,通过趋势分析和年代际比较分析,揭示武汉市气候变化对全球气候变化和当地城市化的响应。结果表明：武汉市5项气温均表现出一致的升温趋势,其中平均气温、平均最低气温、极端最低气温最明显,1970年代中后期升温速度加快; 4项降水要素变化均不显著,只有年降水日数接近信度01的显著性,其中年降水量为弱的增加趋势,同时有明显的年代际差异,1950、1980、1990等年代明显偏大（多）,年降水日数、最大日降水量为减少趋势,但暴雨日数是增加的;年平均和最小相对湿度均呈现下降趋势,但年平均相对湿度达到极显著程度;平均风速、最大和极大风速以及大风日数一致性极显著减小;日照时数表现为减少趋势;年平均气压为先升后降,上升趋势不明显。可见武汉市各项气温、风速及其极值、相对湿度、日照时数等变化显著,降水、气压变化不显著,这些变化是全球气候变暖和城市化进程共同作用的结果.     

三峡水库对区域气候影响的数值模拟分析

利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3模拟了三峡水库建成后,由于下垫面变化对区域气候的影响,并探讨了三峡水库的建成是否为引发社会广泛关注的高温干旱和低温雨雪冰冻灾害等极端天气的主要因素。研究表明:三峡水库的建成对当地气温具有海洋性效应,库区附近春季温度变低,夏季在水库下游气温升高、上游则气温降低,而冬季则以升温为主;春季降水变化主要位于库区沿线的南部山区,增雨带和减雨带相间分布,夏季降水量在三峡库区中上游地区和附近的山区呈增加趋势,在库区下游及附近地区降水呈减少趋势,冬季降水量减少,主要集中在大坝附近地区到三峡(巫山)段;春季库区的相对湿度增加,幅度多在0.5%～1.0%,夏季相对湿度的影响也存在正负两种效应,大坝上游库区附近相对湿度增加,大坝下游地区相对湿度降低,冬季变幅不大;三峡水利工程不是干旱、低温雨雪冰冻等极端天气出现的主因,它对极端天气事件的影响并不明显。     

公共建筑人群疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型研究*

为寻找公共建筑人群疏散极端负荷流线,构建疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型。首先,通过分析建筑空间布局的构成要素,引入移动空间、障碍空间、移动节点等概念,构建公共建筑疏散空间的拓扑网络;其次,定义节点最迟疏散结束时刻、节点最早疏散开始时刻等时间参数,以某时刻作为初始状态,计算疏散网络节点时差,构建极端负荷流线的拓扑解析模型,探析公共建筑人群疏散流线拥堵特征;最后,采用Agent技术对某会展中心人群疏散流线负荷模型进行仿真分析。研究结果表明:流线的拓扑网络节点总时差反映了流线负荷分布特征,人群疏散的极端负荷流线符合拓扑解析模型结果,能为公共建筑人群疏散方案的制定提供理论依据。     

Determinants of Trust for Public Lands: Fire and Fuels Management on the Bitterroot National Forest

Management of public lands occurs today with high levels of scrutiny and controversy. To succeed, managers seek the support, involvement, and endorsement of the public. This study examines trust as an indicator of managerial success and attempts to identify and measure the components that most influence it. A review of trust literature yielded 14 attributes that were hypothesized to contribute to trust, grouped into the three dimensions of Shared Norms and Values, Willingness to Endorse, and Perceived Efficacy. Operationalizing these attributes and dimensions, a telephone survey was administered to a sample of Montana, USA, residents living adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest (n = 1,152). Each of the attributes was measured in the context of federal lands fire and fuel management. Structural equation modeling showed that all 14 attributes were found to be influential contributors to levels of trust. Results suggest that if managers are to maintain or increase levels of public trust, they need to consider each of trust’s attributes as they make social, ecological, and economic resource decisions.     

Low toxicant concentrations decrease the frequency of fast-growing seedlings at high densities of annual baby's breath (Gypsophila elegans)

Very low toxicant concentrations reduce the frequency of most vital seedlings in dense stands in vitro.     

基于RZWQM模型模拟太行山低山丘陵区农田土壤硝态氮迁移及淋溶规律

太行山低山丘陵区是华北平原地下水补给区,近年来山区农田面积增加,农田过量氮肥投入造成地下水硝酸盐浓度逐年升高,因此,研究典型农田土壤氮淋溶过程对保护补给区地下水具有重要意义.本文以位于太行山低山丘陵区的中国科学院太行山生态试验站冬小麦-夏玉米轮作农田为研究对象,应用根区水质模型（root zone water quality model,RZWQM）对太行山低山丘陵区2015~2016年冬小麦-夏玉米的1个轮作周期内1m土壤剖面水分和硝态氮运移进行模拟.结果表明,土壤硝态氮淋溶主要发生在夏玉米季（雨季）,当全年施氮量为300 kg·hm^-2时,夏玉米季硝态氮淋失量达到59.9 kg·hm^-2,而冬小麦生长季硝态氮淋失量仅为2.12 kg·hm^-2.不同施氮量和不同降水年型下玉米季土壤硝态氮淋溶模拟结果表明,当施氮量为0、300和450 kg·hm^-2时,2016年（丰水年）极端降水后,玉米季土壤硝态氮潜在淋失量分别为10.5、59.9和136.5 kg·hm^-2;当全年施氮量为300 kg·hm^-2时,2013（枯水年）、2015（平水年）和2016年（丰水年）玉米季硝态氮淋失量分别占轮作周期总施氮量的9%、10%和20%;当全年施氮量为450 kg·hm^-2时,2013（枯水年）、2015（平水年）和2016年（丰水年）玉米季硝态氮淋失量分别占总施氮量的11%、17%和30%,表明大降水事件不仅对地下水形成大量补给,很大程度上也增加了累积在农田土壤中的硝态氮淋溶损失,增加了对区域地下水硝酸盐潜在污染威胁.     

Identification of anthropogenic influences on water quality of rivers in Taihu watershed

Surface water bodies are progressively subjected to stress as a result of anthropogenic activities. This study assessed and examined the impact of human activities on spatial variation in the water quality of 19 rivers in the Taihu watershed. Concentrations of physicochemical parameters of surface water quality were determined at the mouth of each river during the period of 2000-2004. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to identify characteristics of the water quality in the studied rivers. The results showed that rivers strongly influenced by household wastewater have the highest concentrations of nutrients （TN and TP）. Moreover, rivers in the vicinity of a metropolis presented low dissolved oxygen （DO） levels. However, organic-chemical pollution （petroleum and volatile phenolics） was identified with high localization. Two rivers influenced by sewage from industry and ships were distinguished from other rivers with high values of petroleum. The Taige channel, a river located in Changzhou City that is strongly influenced by wastewater from industry, was characterized with an extraordinarily high value of volatile phenolics. Rivers passing through countries, especially through hilly countries were characterized with high DO contents and low nutrient and organic-chemical pollution, suggesting that agriculture puts less pressure on water quality in adjacent rivers. Therefore, more effort should be made in controlling point pollution to restore water quality in rivers adjacent to cities.     

青海湖流域表层土壤环境背景值及其影响因素

为了评价青海湖流域土壤的环境背景值,2008~2009 年分别采集流域表层土壤样品共 273 个,采用X 荧光光谱仪分析了29 种元素（Na、Mg、Al、Si、K、Ca、Fe、P、Ti、V、Cr、 Mn、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Ga、As、Rb、Sr、Y、Zr、Nb、Ba、Pb、La、Ce、Nd 和 Th）的含量, 根据ArcGis 地统计工具ESDA 模块,确定了表层土壤背景值及其范围。结果表明：总体上青海 湖流域表层土壤各元素含量偏低,但Ca 元素含量明显偏高,Zn 元素含量明显偏低;流域风化程 度是初等风化脱Ca、Na 阶段向中等风化脱K 阶段转变,风化环境处于冷干向暖湿转变,风化的 主控因素是母岩和温度;大多数元素含量的变化都与沉积物中粘土（<4 μm）含量的变化呈一致 性,而与砂（>63 μm）的含量变化呈反相关关系,这些元素多赋存在细颗粒物中,少部分元素容 易赋存于粗颗粒中;常量元素的活动性的顺序为：K₂O ＞ CaO ＞ SiO₂ ＞ MgO ＞ Na₂O ＞ Al₂O₃ ＞ TiO₂ ＞ P₂O₅ ＞ Fe₂O₃ ＞ MnO;微量元素的活动性的顺序为：Ni ＞ V ＞ Pb ＞ Ba ＞ Sr ＞ Zr ＞ Ce ＞ Rb ＞ Co ＞ Zn ＞ La ＞ Y ＞ Nd ＞ Cu ＞ Th ＞ Nb。