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421.
环境与生态系统服务价值的WTA/WTP不对称   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
支付意愿(WTP)和受偿意愿(WTA)是条件价值法(CVM)研究中环境与生态系统服务价值的两类不同表征尺度,对同一环境物品的WTP和WTA往往存在显著不对称性.以上海某城市河流生态系统服务评价为例,基于CVM研究方法,对WTP和WTA进行了对比分析和探讨.研究表明:(1)WTP和WTA的不对称性在案例研究中得到反映,WTA/WTP的平均值比值为7.02,中点值比值为6.18,两个比例与国际已有研究的一般范围较为接近;(2)WTA不受收入等变量约束,但受学历、家庭人口等变量的影响,尤其与WTP呈显著正向关联,显示WTA作为环境资源价值的表征尺度亦可能具有一定有效性;(3)WTA/WTP不对称的主要决定因素为收入和学历.WTA/WTP不对称的一个重要环境管理学含义在于,破坏或污染相同质量或数量的环境资源所引起的福利损失,将远大于保护和改善环境资源所引起的福利改进,而不是两者相等.  相似文献   
422.
The social losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed the compensation granted under the IOPC (International Oil Pollution Compensation) system, with losses estimated at 15 times more than the applicable limit of compensations. This is far above the level of costs for which those responsible for hydrocarbons spills are liable. The highest market losses correspond to sectors of extraction, elaboration and commercialisation of seafood. However, damages to non-commercial natural resources could constitute an outstanding group of losses for which further primary data are needed: these losses would only be compensable under the current system by means of a refund for cleaning and restoration costs. Results show that, in Europe, the responsibility for oil spills in maritime transport is limited and unclear. The consequence of this is net social losses from recurrent oil spills and internationally accepted incentives for risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons.  相似文献   
423.
This paper is aimed at presenting and discussing the methodologies implemented in state-of-the-art models for predicting the physical processes of radionuclide migration through the aquatic environment, including transport due to water currents, diffusion, settling and re-suspension. Models are briefly described, model parameter values reviewed and values recommended. The different modelling approaches are briefly classified and the advantages and disadvantages of the various model approaches and methodologies are assessed.  相似文献   
424.
Salthammer T 《Chemosphere》2011,82(11):1507-1517
The importance of good indoor air quality for the health of the individual was recognized as long as 150 years ago and that period also saw recommendations, which essentially related to questions of ventilation and carbon dioxide. The first evaluation standards for organic and inorganic substances were laid down in the 1970s, often on an empirical basis. It was in the mid-1980s of the 20th century that a shift occurred towards systematically evaluating the results of indoor air measurements, carrying out representative environmental surveys and deriving guideline values and reference values on the basis of toxicological, epidemiological and statistical criteria. Generally speaking the indoor environment is an area which can only be assessed with difficulty since its occupants are in most cases exposed to mixtures of substances and there can be great local and temporal variations in the substance spectrum. Data are available today for a large number of substances and this makes it possible, with the aid of statistically derived reference values and toxicologically based guideline values, to make useful recommendations regarding good indoor air quality. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to evaluate reactive compounds and reaction products. What is disadvantageous, however, is the fact that different guideline values may be published for one and the same substance, whose justification and area of application are often not transparent. A guideline or reference value can only be regarded as rational when necessary and when a strategy for its verification is available.  相似文献   
425.
Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.  相似文献   
426.
本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明:(1)长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量(PAV)、简单日降水强度(PINT)、强降水贡献率(PQ95)、强降水阈值(PF95)、最大1日-10日降水量(PX1D-PX10D)基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。(2)PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。(3)未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。(4)遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。  相似文献   
427.
Climate change presents scientists, politicians, and media producers with a challenge of articulating to diverse stakeholders both the complexity of issues and the urgency of action. Analyses of how climate change is represented and constructed in broadcast media are useful to capture a reflection of contemporary values. We use an analysis of news frames and production values as well as a limited “circuit of culture” approach to explore climate change communication as both a news product and cultural phenomenon. Our focus is New Zealand, a country which ratified the Kyoto agreement but which is currently noncompliant. Using qualitative framing analysis and in-depth interviews with leading media producers, politicians, and scientists, we examine how climate change is produced, represented, and consumed by New Zealanders via their broadcast media.  相似文献   
428.
利用CMIP5三个耦合模式的历史模拟及不同情景预测结果、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和长江中下游观测降水资料,采用统计降尺度方法对长江中下游夏季极端降水频次进行模拟和预估。首先,通过计算相关的方法,获取建立统计降尺度预测模型所需的预测因子。提取的预测因子同时满足既是观测环流要素场影响极端降水的关键区域,又是模式要素场预报的高技巧区域两个条件;然后,结合挑选出的预测因子,利用多元线性回归方法建立长江中下游极端降水的统计降尺度预测模型,并对模型性能进行检验。交叉检验结果表明,此种统计降尺度方法能对过去长江中下游极端降水变化有较好的再现能力,且多个降尺度模型结果的集合能进一步提高降尺度方法的模拟技巧;最后,将建立的统计降尺度模型应用于CMIP5未来3种不同的排放情景来对极端降水进行未来预估,并对多模式结果进行集合。结果显示,统计降尺度模型预估未来几个年代际长江中下游夏季极端降水频次相对于1986~2005年呈增加趋势,21世纪中、后期高排放情景下极端降水频次增加幅度高于低排放情景。  相似文献   
429.
为进一步完善我国废物焚烧标准体系,防控废物焚烧环境风险,本文对欧盟废物焚烧指令与我国焚烧标准体系进行了对比分析。欧盟废物焚烧指令分别对专用焚烧厂和协同焚烧厂从废物运输到处理处置全过程的污染物排放控制做出了相关规定,适用于危险废物和非危险废物的焚烧以及常规污染物和有毒污染物的控制。欧盟废物焚烧指令对不同规模的焚烧设施采用统一标准,以日均值和半小时均值为污染物排放限值,更客观、准确地评价了污染物排放对环境的影响。与欧盟废物焚烧指令相比,我国废物焚烧标准涉及废物联合利用处置的相关条文较少,内容不详,项目缺失。我国烟尘、HCl的排放限值均在欧盟标准限值6倍以上,SO2的排放限值是欧盟标准的4~8倍。除CO、NOx的排放限值外,其他污染物排放限值也明显高于欧盟标准限值。我国采用抽样监测方法,监测结果可能在日常排放值的95%置信区间外,不具备代表性。我国可借鉴欧盟废物焚烧指令的成果制定协同焚烧标准,并严格污染物排放限值,考虑采用日均值或半小时均值的评价方法,提高我国废物焚烧标准的精确性和可执行性。  相似文献   
430.
在分析借鉴国外污染场地管理框架体系的基础上,结合中国近几年在污染场地法律法规及标准建设方面的经验以及各地的管理实践,提出了建立基于风险的中国污染场地管理模式、管理技术程序、层次化的风险评估方法,以及相应的标准体系构想。  相似文献   
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