Indirect assessment of economic damages from the Prestige oil spill: consequences for liability and risk prevention

The social losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed the compensation granted under the IOPC (International Oil Pollution Compensation) system, with losses estimated at 15 times more than the applicable limit of compensations. This is far above the level of costs for which those responsible for hydrocarbons spills are liable. The highest market losses correspond to sectors of extraction, elaboration and commercialisation of seafood. However, damages to non-commercial natural resources could constitute an outstanding group of losses for which further primary data are needed: these losses would only be compensable under the current system by means of a refund for cleaning and restoration costs. Results show that, in Europe, the responsibility for oil spills in maritime transport is limited and unclear. The consequence of this is net social losses from recurrent oil spills and internationally accepted incentives for risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons.     

Critical evaluation of approaches in setting indoor air quality guidelines and reference values

The importance of good indoor air quality for the health of the individual was recognized as long as 150 years ago and that period also saw recommendations, which essentially related to questions of ventilation and carbon dioxide. The first evaluation standards for organic and inorganic substances were laid down in the 1970s, often on an empirical basis. It was in the mid-1980s of the 20th century that a shift occurred towards systematically evaluating the results of indoor air measurements, carrying out representative environmental surveys and deriving guideline values and reference values on the basis of toxicological, epidemiological and statistical criteria. Generally speaking the indoor environment is an area which can only be assessed with difficulty since its occupants are in most cases exposed to mixtures of substances and there can be great local and temporal variations in the substance spectrum. Data are available today for a large number of substances and this makes it possible, with the aid of statistically derived reference values and toxicologically based guideline values, to make useful recommendations regarding good indoor air quality. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to evaluate reactive compounds and reaction products. What is disadvantageous, however, is the fact that different guideline values may be published for one and the same substance, whose justification and area of application are often not transparent. A guideline or reference value can only be regarded as rational when necessary and when a strategy for its verification is available.     

Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results ...     

某金矿周边土壤和地下水中砷的健康风险评价

以湖北某含砷金矿污染场地为例,依据《污染场地风险评估技术导则》(HJ 25.3—2014),对其周边土壤和地下水中砷元素进行健康风险评价,结果表明:该金矿周边土壤和地下水中砷分别通过经口摄入土壤、皮肤接触土壤和吸入土壤颗粒物、饮用地下水4种暴露途径的致癌风险均超过可接受风险水平(10-6),对周边居民造成潜在危害。计算得到经口摄入、皮肤接触和吸入途径基于致癌效应的土壤风险控制值分别为1.6 mg/kg、9.3 mg/kg和12.1 mg/kg,应予以重视,并建议对矿山进行综合治理和目标值修复。     

1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明：（1）长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量（PAV）、简单日降水强度（PINT）、强降水贡献率（PQ95）、强降水阈值（PF95）、最大1日-10日降水量（PX1D-PX10D）基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。（2）PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。（3）未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。（4）遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。     

长江中下游夏季极端降水事件频次的统计降尺度模拟与预估

利用CMIP5三个耦合模式的历史模拟及不同情景预测结果、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和长江中下游观测降水资料,采用统计降尺度方法对长江中下游夏季极端降水频次进行模拟和预估。首先,通过计算相关的方法,获取建立统计降尺度预测模型所需的预测因子。提取的预测因子同时满足既是观测环流要素场影响极端降水的关键区域,又是模式要素场预报的高技巧区域两个条件;然后,结合挑选出的预测因子,利用多元线性回归方法建立长江中下游极端降水的统计降尺度预测模型,并对模型性能进行检验。交叉检验结果表明,此种统计降尺度方法能对过去长江中下游极端降水变化有较好的再现能力,且多个降尺度模型结果的集合能进一步提高降尺度方法的模拟技巧;最后,将建立的统计降尺度模型应用于CMIP5未来3种不同的排放情景来对极端降水进行未来预估,并对多模式结果进行集合。结果显示,统计降尺度模型预估未来几个年代际长江中下游夏季极端降水频次相对于1986~2005年呈增加趋势,21世纪中、后期高排放情景下极端降水频次增加幅度高于低排放情景。     

Mediating the Science: Symbolic and Structural Influences on Communicating Climate Change Through New Zealand's Television News

Climate change presents scientists, politicians, and media producers with a challenge of articulating to diverse stakeholders both the complexity of issues and the urgency of action. Analyses of how climate change is represented and constructed in broadcast media are useful to capture a reflection of contemporary values. We use an analysis of news frames and production values as well as a limited “circuit of culture” approach to explore climate change communication as both a news product and cultural phenomenon. Our focus is New Zealand, a country which ratified the Kyoto agreement but which is currently noncompliant. Using qualitative framing analysis and in-depth interviews with leading media producers, politicians, and scientists, we examine how climate change is produced, represented, and consumed by New Zealanders via their broadcast media.     

对社会主义核心价值体系建设几个问题的探讨

从阐述相关基本概念入手,系统分析人类社会核心价值体系的嬗变历程和社会主义核心价值体系的科学内涵;阐述了建设社会主义核心价值体系的历史必然性,进而提出了弘扬和践行社会主义核心价值体系的方法和途径。     

基于风险的中国污染场地管理体系研究

在分析借鉴国外污染场地管理框架体系的基础上,结合中国近几年在污染场地法律法规及标准建设方面的经验以及各地的管理实践,提出了建立基于风险的中国污染场地管理模式、管理技术程序、层次化的风险评估方法,以及相应的标准体系构想。     

新疆极端水文事件的时空分布特征

利用1901-2010年的资料,采用传统统计方法及通过衡量极端水文事件的集中度、集中指数,分析了新疆极端水文事件的空间分布特征和时间变化规律。结果表明:新疆极端水文事件在空间分布上主要集中在伊犁和阿克苏地区,吐鲁番、和田为少灾区;时间上主要发生在夏半年,而冬半年相对较少,但北疆的阿勒泰地区冬半年较多;吐鲁番地区年内分布非常集中,乌鲁木齐、奎屯-石河子、阿克苏地区次之,阿勒泰地区集中度最小。