云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景分析

利用云南124个气象站逐日最低气温和天气现象(霜)资料,计算最低气温低于-5℃的站点数占全省总站数的比例,定义站点比例超出25%的霜冻事件为云南极端霜冻气候事件。分析了云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景。结果表明,云南极端霜冻事件发生前气温偏低,云量偏多;霜冻发生时夜间晴朗,辐射散热强烈,气温再度下降。这种霜冻属于混合霜冻或称为平流辐射霜冻。极端霜冻气候事件发生的主要原因之一是高空冷平流与底层冷高压控制下夜间晴空辐射冷却降温。发生时空气湿度较发生前小,空气相对干燥。     

近50年北京地区主要灾害性天气事件变化趋势

应用1958-2008年逐日气象观测资料,对北京地区的几种主要灾害性天气事件进行了统计分析。结果表明:(1)各种灾害性天气事件的发生频率与强度均具较大的年际变化特征,高温事件的分布为双峰型结构,1990年代以来为高温多发期,年极端高温强度及连续高温日数均有增加的趋势,低温事件的变化趋势则正好相反;(2)强对流天气事件如暴雨、冰雹、雷暴日数的下降趋势不明显,但强度有减弱的迹象,大风、沙尘暴、大雾事件下降趋势明显;(3)北京年酸雨日数上升趋势明显,酸雨pH值的变化表明污染日趋严重;(4)北京气候变暖突变发生前后某些极端天气频率和强度表现出明显差异,其突变点相差1～2 a间隔,表明极端事件对于气候增暖变化需要一个响应过程。     

基于三波长透射率的水体色度检测标准

为了推动有关分光光度法测量水体色度的国家标准的建立,对美国和台湾地区的水体色度标准检测方法进行了研究,提出了新的基于三波长透射率测量水体色度的方法。根据现行国家标准中的色度学相关数据,选择在595、555和445 nm 3个波长处的光谱透射率计算水样的三刺激值,依照国标推荐的色差公式建立了测量水样色度的标准检量线。利用所提出的新的水体色度测量方法对5个水样的色度值进行了实际测量,结果表明,新的测量方法所得到的水体色度值与铂钴比色法一致。     

Re-thinking relationships between environmental attitudes and values for effective coastal natural resource management in Ghana

The coastal zone of Ghana is home to about a quarter of the total population of the country and its importance has been well emphasised in policy documents, such as the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda, the National Climate Change Policy as well as the National Environmental Policy. However, environmental degradation remains a critical issue as dependence on coastal natural resources continues to increase, and its effect is being felt more strongly by certain groups than others. This paper identifies women as key stakeholders, and through an empirical assessment highlights the need to factor their environmental attitudes and values into efforts to manage the coast in an integrated manner. The results show that respondents generally had positive environmental attitudes, which did not translate to good environmental behaviour. Respondents placed the greatest importance on the coastal natural resources as sources of wealth creation and of food, values which are often described as being “anthropocentric”. Hence, initiatives that could win the support of the local people and also help manage coastal resources effectively are those that link the livelihoods and well-being to coastal natural resource management.     

欧盟废物焚烧指令的研究与借鉴

为进一步完善我国废物焚烧标准体系,防控废物焚烧环境风险,本文对欧盟废物焚烧指令与我国焚烧标准体系进行了对比分析。欧盟废物焚烧指令分别对专用焚烧厂和协同焚烧厂从废物运输到处理处置全过程的污染物排放控制做出了相关规定,适用于危险废物和非危险废物的焚烧以及常规污染物和有毒污染物的控制。欧盟废物焚烧指令对不同规模的焚烧设施采用统一标准,以日均值和半小时均值为污染物排放限值,更客观、准确地评价了污染物排放对环境的影响。与欧盟废物焚烧指令相比,我国废物焚烧标准涉及废物联合利用处置的相关条文较少,内容不详,项目缺失。我国烟尘、HCl的排放限值均在欧盟标准限值6倍以上,SO2的排放限值是欧盟标准的4~8倍。除CO、NOx的排放限值外,其他污染物排放限值也明显高于欧盟标准限值。我国采用抽样监测方法,监测结果可能在日常排放值的95%置信区间外,不具备代表性。我国可借鉴欧盟废物焚烧指令的成果制定协同焚烧标准,并严格污染物排放限值,考虑采用日均值或半小时均值的评价方法,提高我国废物焚烧标准的精确性和可执行性。     

Direct and indirect effects of weather experiences on life satisfaction – which role for climate change expectations?

This paper deals with the effect of (1) damage experience from extreme weather events and (2) expectations concerning future climate change on subjective well-being (SWB). We use data from a large representative survey carried out amongst German households. The effect of experienced weather events on the SWB of the heads of households is significant only in the case of heat waves; the same cannot be said for storms, heavy rain, and floods. Concerns about future climate change in households have a substantial negative impact on current SWB. In addition, we divide the impact of experience into direct and indirect effects of damage, deduced from the impact of experience on expectations regarding future climate change. Both direct and indirect effects of weather experiences are quantified. It becomes apparent that the indirect effect is significant, but small when compared to the direct effect.     

游憩价值评价方法探讨——以凤阳山自然保护区为例

风景区游憩价值的评估对景区经营管理及开发保护等工作具有重要意义。本文基于笔者对条件价值法的创新,通过问卷设计和抽样调查,对凤阳山保护区游憩价值进行评估,计算出其2010年的总游憩价值2 031万元人民币。此项研究丰富了我国的环境价值评估理论研究和应用实践。     

Creating conservation strategies with value-focused thinking

Biodiversity and human well-being strategies are only as good as the set of ideas people think about. We evaluated value-focused thinking (VFT), a framework that emphasizes creating objectives and strategies that are responsive to the objectives. We performed a proof-of-concept study of VFT with 6 conservation planning teams at a global conservation organization. We developed a package of materials related to VFT, including meeting–session agendas, a virtual facilitation template, facilitator's guide, and evaluation questionnaires. We used these materials to test whether VFT applied in a group setting resulted in high-quality conservation strategies and participant satisfaction and whether our materials were scalable, meaning that someone newly trained in VFT could facilitate planning meetings that resulted in high-quality strategies and participant satisfaction, as compared with an experienced VFT facilitator. Net response indicated positive compelling, feasible, creative, and representative ratings for the conservation strategies per team. Participants indicated satisfaction overall, although satisfaction was greater for objectives than for strategies. Among the participants with previous conservation planning experience, all were at least as satisfied with their VFT strategies compared with previously developed strategies, and none were less satisfied (p = 0.001). Changes in participant satisfaction were not related to facilitator type (experienced or inexperienced with VFT) (p > 0.10). Some participants had a preconceived sense of shared understanding of important values and interests before participating in the study, which VFT strengthened. Our results highlight the advantages of structuring the development and evaluation of conservation planning frameworks around VFT.     

考虑数据去噪分解的滑坡位移组合预测研究

为准确掌握滑坡位移变化规律,基于滑坡变形监测结果统计,对位移数据进行去噪分解处理,将滑坡位移数据分解为趋势项和误差项,并分别利用优化多核极限学习机和Arima模型构建预测模型,以实现滑坡位移的组合预测.结果表明:Morlet复小波较传统去噪模型分解效果更优,且通过优化处理,能更好地提高其分解能力;通过对多核极限学习机的...     

环境与生态系统服务价值的WTA/WTP不对称

支付意愿(WTP)和受偿意愿(WTA)是条件价值法(CVM)研究中环境与生态系统服务价值的两类不同表征尺度,对同一环境物品的WTP和WTA往往存在显著不对称性.以上海某城市河流生态系统服务评价为例,基于CVM研究方法,对WTP和WTA进行了对比分析和探讨.研究表明:(1)WTP和WTA的不对称性在案例研究中得到反映,WTA/WTP的平均值比值为7.02,中点值比值为6.18,两个比例与国际已有研究的一般范围较为接近;(2)WTA不受收入等变量约束,但受学历、家庭人口等变量的影响,尤其与WTP呈显著正向关联,显示WTA作为环境资源价值的表征尺度亦可能具有一定有效性;(3)WTA/WTP不对称的主要决定因素为收入和学历.WTA/WTP不对称的一个重要环境管理学含义在于,破坏或污染相同质量或数量的环境资源所引起的福利损失,将远大于保护和改善环境资源所引起的福利改进,而不是两者相等.