基于多源数据融合的石油罐区安全监控模型

由于单一传感器在石油罐区安全监控中容易受到外界因素影响从而产生误差,为提高传感器检测结果的可靠性和罐区安全监控预警的准确性,基于多源数据融合技术,建立罐区安全状态预警模型。首先,介绍了多源数据融合技术的3个层级:数据级融合,特征级融合和决策级融合,以及目前各领域常见的数据融合方法;其次,建立了基于最优加权融合算法的一级融合模型和基于BP神经网络算法的二级融合模型;最后,得到石油罐区安全监控数据融合模型,并为进一步的实践应用打下了理论基础。     

基于过程的农户土地利用行为模型的设计与模拟研究

通过基于过程的方式来研究农户决策行为已经成为学者们关注的焦点问题之一。论文依据Belief、Desire、Intention（BDI）决策框架,设计基于过程的农户土地利用行为决策模型。模型以农户实际决策而非效益最大化作为行为模拟的假设,对陕西省米脂县高渠乡的典型村落马蹄洼和姜兴庄土地利用变化进行模拟。模拟可以再现农户决策的动态性和反馈性,展示农户学习行为的过程及其影响,揭示农户决策变化的内在机理。利用该模型,对3 种情景下农户土地利用行为进行模拟,对比分析3 种情景的优劣,指出政府未来应当在降低市场风险、规范合作社经营、提高市场预测方面多做工作。文章最后对该种方法的优点和不足进行总结,并指出今后需要加强的方向。     

Sediment organic matter and meiofauna community response to long-term fish-farm impact in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean)

Quantitative and qualitative changes in meiofauna community structure were investigated to assess the impact of a fish farm, which was operating continuously for 15 years (La Spezia Gulf, W Mediterranean). Sediment samples were collected in June, July, September, October 2000 and February 2001 for the analysis of phytopigments (chlorophyll-a and phaeopigments), the biochemical composition of organic matter (proteins, carbohydrates and lipids) and related to meiofaunal parameters.

Sediment organic matter reached extremely high concentrations beneath the fish cages when compared to the control. Particularly lipids, carbohydrates and chlorophyll-a were significantly higher in fish-farm sediments. On a long-term basis meiofauna displayed adaptations in sediments beneath the cages resulting in an increase of density. Organic impact on meiofaunal community structure was evident in terms of an increase of the nematodes to copepods (Ne/Co) and nauplius to copepods (Na/Co) ratios in fish farm sediments. Cumaceans and kinorhynchs were encountered in control sediments, but disappeared in fish-farm samples. These data suggest that meiofauna is a sensitive tool for evaluating the effects of organic enrichment in fish farm impacted areas.     

Empirical analysis on the influence of the Shaanxi fruit industry on regional food security

As part of its development policy to relieve rural poverty in west China, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as agricultural tax exemptions, agricultural subsidies, and scientific, technological and restructuring improvements to agriculture. Following these actions, farmers’ incomes have increased greatly and the economy in poor areas of west China has seen rapid improvements. However, agricultural restructuring, infrastructure construction and ecological restoration projects have reduced the area of land under arable farming, restricting opportunities for increasing total grain yield. Regional food security is therefore threatened and an imbalance between economic development and food security is created. Shaanxi is a representative province in west China where agricultural restructuring has resulted in large areas of arable land being converted into orchards that produce higher economic returns. This study randomly surveyed 1430 farm households in three counties in the apple-producing region of Shaanxi Province (Luochuan, Changwu and Baishui). The standard of living and household income of farmers in the fruit production areas were higher than in grain-producing areas, thus discouraging grain production. Land under agriculture in the counties studied comprised 59% orchards and 39% arable, with 2% under other uses. Per capita, 204.3 kg of grain was produced, 51% of that required for self-sufficiency. Other staple foods produced amounted to only 13.9% of that needed for self-sufficiency. As a result, nearly half of the grain needed by the community was purchased from outside, resulting in very poor regional food security. Clearly, fruit production in this region seriously affects regional food security. Coordination of relationships between rural economic development and regional food security is key for sustainable development of the regional agriculture and economy of west China.     

Impacts of the Rising Opportunity Cost of Farm Labor on Agricultural Land Use Structure: Theory and Empirical Evidences

Abstract

Nowadays the rising of opportunity cost of farm labor comes to the forefront of attention in China. In order to understand its impact on agricultural land-use structure, a theoretical framework of household economics is formulated drawn on Low’s model. Under the theoretical framework, the impact of the rising opportunity cost of on-farm on cropping structure is deduced in theory. And then, using statistic and survey data, taking mountain area of southern Ningxia as an example, the theoretical assumes are verified. The results show that the rise of opportunity cost of farm labor leads to less diversified cropping structure.     

Genetic Engineering in Agriculture: Who Stands to Benefit?

The use of genetic engineering inagriculture has been the source of much debate. Todate, arguments have focused most strongly on thepotential human health risks, the flow of geneticmaterial to related species, and ecologicalconsequences. Little attention appears to have beengiven to a more fundamental concern, namely, who willbe the beneficiaries of this technology? Given the prevalence of chronic hunger and thestark economics of farming, it is arguable thatfarmers and the hungry should be the mainbeneficiaries of agricultural research. However, theapplication of genetic engineering appears unlikely tobenefit either of these two groups. This technology islargely controlled by the private sector, and itscontinued development hinges on its profitability.Thus, the only likely beneficiaries of the applicationof genetic engineering in agriculture are companieswith the capacity to use it.     

农田生态系统管理与非点源污染控制

随着化肥和农药大量使用,农业非点源污染已经成为全球水污染的主要来源．不同农田管理措施,如免耕、少耕、传统耕作方式,化肥和农药的使用量、使用方式以及使用季节,灌溉的不同方式,如沟灌、淹灌和喷灌等与农业非点源污染形成之间均有密切的关系,通过农田景观设计来控制非点源污染,可望在控制农业非点源污染方面起到指导作用．     

退耕还林还草对土地利用变化影响程度研究——以延安生态建设示范区为例

文章在分析延安生态建设示范区2000-2003年间各土地利用类型的数量变化和空间特征的基础上,引入退耕指数、退耕影响系数等指标研究退耕还林草对示范区土地利用结构变化的影响。结果显示,示范区已退耕坡耕地36.07%,平均每年退耕12.02%,全区的退耕影响系数高达4.76,该结果表明大规模的退耕还林草活动对区域土地利用变化的影响很大,它推动了土地利用结构的优化。分乡镇的研究显示,退耕对示范区各乡镇土地利用变化的影响存在一定的差异,除2个乡镇的退耕影响系数远远低于全区平均水平外,其他7个乡镇都高于全区平均水平。     

区域农村土地市场发育的农户行为响应与农业土地利用变化——以江苏省苏州市、南京市、扬州市村庄及农户调查为例

在江苏省苏州市、南京市、扬州市各自选择了2个村的基础上,运用对240个农户的抽样调查资料,建立了区域农业土地利用变化分析的数量经济模型,较为深入地分析了农村土地流转市场引导下的农户行为对于农业土地利用变化的影响。研究结果表明,在农户决策行为起主导作用的前提下,农业土地利用正在逐步由传统的大田作物向效益更高的经济作物和水产养殖等地类转化;农户家庭非农就业水平的提高有效地推进了这一转化;同时,农户受教育水平的高低以及政府行为都在一定程度上影响着农业土地利用变化。最后从区域非农产业和城镇化发展、深化农村土地产权的物权化改革、农村社会保障制度的完善、建立农村土地流转中介机制、进一步规范政府行为及积极推进农村户籍制度改革等方面提出了一些政策性建议。     

中国风电的时空分布特征和发展趋势

利用1990-2005年中国和英国风电发展数据,对两国风电的时空分布特征和发展趋势进行了比较分析。据英国风电发展的阶段性,把中国风电发展划分为试验性发展、规模发展、过渡发展3个阶段,并预测到2007年步入大规模发展阶段。因此,未来几年,中国风电场数目和规模将会快速增长,并且由集中走向高密度集中分布。据对影响风电场省级时空分布的自然、市场和政策共8个选择因子的主成分分析和系统聚类分析结果,将中国风电场按省级划分为3个区域和8个亚区域,对聚类结果进行逐步判别回判,结果表明准确率达92.6%。