自然资源福利计量的参数模型与表征尺度:理论与应用比较

对自然资源产生的社会福利进行货币化计量是目前资源与环境经济学研究的焦点之一,条件估值法(CVM)在评估自然资源福利的研究方面具有独特的优势。1984年提出的基于线性效用差下福利计量的参数模型及相应的表征尺度在后来的CVM研究中得到了较多的应用,但已有研究多侧重于方法的应用,对模型和尺度的理论有效性缺乏实证性的探讨。基于随机效用最大化原理对消费者偏好函数模型及相应的福利计量尺度进行了较为详细的数学推导(以Logit模型为例)。以上海某城市河流资源CVM福利计量为例,在实证分析过程中结合国外已有研究,将线性模型与基于非线性效用差下的对数模型进行了比较,给出了在CVM研究中对自然资源进行福利计量建议采用的参数模型与表征尺度。     

经济波动与最优城镇化水平和速度研究

城镇化对经济波动具有重要影响,过快和过慢均不利于经济的平稳发展。我国经济新常态客观上要求实施新型城镇化战略,关键是积极稳妥推进城镇化,科学控制城镇化水平和速度。以宏观经济稳定为目标,确定最优城镇化规则,诊断当前城镇化水平和速度,可为落实新型城镇化,稳定宏观经济提供决策参考。本文建立了附加城镇化变量的后顾型宏观经济模型,利用最优控制理论求解基于宏观经济波动最小化的最优城镇化水平和速度决定规则,实证结果表明:我国人口城镇化速度主要对宏观总需求产生影响,而土地城镇化速度既影响总需求也影响总供给;最优城镇化速度规则对总产出缺口负反馈,对通胀缺口正反馈。在此基础上,进一步模拟了1990-2013年间最优人口城镇化、土地城镇化水平以及相应的总产出和通胀波动情况,模拟结果显示:最优城镇化水平和速度规则具有逆经济周期的特征,为保持经济平稳发展,经济过度繁荣时城镇化应减速,经济衰退时应加速城镇化,我国历史上城镇化速度和水平存在较大的优化空间;最优城镇化水平和速度规则会小幅度降低城镇化进程和总产出的平滑性,但会大幅度抑制通胀波动,总体来看使总福利损失下降约三分之一;当前我国人口城镇化水平超前速度过快,土地城镇化水平偏低速度过慢。建议"十三五"期间,政府应该根据宏观经济波动情况适当控制人口城镇化速度,加快推进土地城镇化,提高土地城镇化水平和质量,同时应制定相应的财政政策和货币政策以促进最优城镇化规则发挥其降低宏观经济波动功能。     

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years, carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one. Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries, and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries, it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries. Concentrated on the manufacturing industry, which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China’s manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of the GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways, and then analyzes the influence on China’s manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well. The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume, and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China. However, the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff. In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as chemical rubber products, oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry, whose export would be reduced, the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest, which will decrease the paper industry’s export ranging from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase. Anyhow, it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent. In addition, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, with a decrease between $2.134 billion and $8.347 billion. Finally, this paper provides information on international coordination, export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.     

Health and Welfare in Danish Dairy Cattle in the Transition to Organic Production: Problems, Priorities and Perspectives

During the past few years,organic dairy farming has grown dramatically inDenmark. Consequently, an increasing number ofpeople are encountering this method ofproduction for the first time. Amongst these,many veterinarians have suddenly had to dealwith organic herds in their home district, and,meeting examples of poor animal welfare, theyhave recently started to express some concerns.Against this background, a so-called``Synthesis of Knowledge' project was initiatedto examine the health and welfare of dairycattle and the use of medication in thetransition to organic production. The aim ofthe project was to investigate associatedproblems from the point of view of the dairyherd. Based on qualitative research interviewswith vets and agricultural advisors, as well asfocus group interviews with farmers who hadrecently converted from conventional to organicfarming, an expert panel attempted to identifyproblem areas and possible solutions. Theproblems related to (a) the adjustment to newand unknown practices, (b) poor management ingeneral, and (c) inappropriate legislation fororganic farming.One problem area was the rearing of dairycalves, particularly with regard to theestablishment of post partumrelationships between cow and calf, grouphousing, and the grazing of young animals. A``natural life' was identified as beingfundamental to organic animal husbandry. Interms of animal welfare, this concept can beunderstood as a way of living in which the calfis allowed to express its natural behavior andsatisfy its natural needs. Essentially, theconditions needed for good calf welfare requirethe compatibility and interplay of elementsfrom ``nature' (the natural life; includingopportunities to satisfy natural needs) and``culture' (farmer management skills; exerciseof care). These elements should be balanced toensure animal welfare in organic herds.     

Mixed oligopoly,foreign penetration and China’s environmental policy: a research based on mixed oligopoly model

This paper analyzes how the foreign penetration affects China’s environment policy in a mixed oligopoly framework, and gets several interesting conclusions. First, our result shows that government should strengthen the degree of environmental policy along with increasing proportion of domestic ownership of multinational firms. Second, we show that an increase in domestic ownership of multinational firms raises not only domestic private firms’ profit but also public firm’s profit as well as social welfare. Third, the government will raise the environmental tax to control environmental damage.     

环境公益诉讼立法问题研究

随着社会生产力的飞速发展,环境问题日益突出。环境公益诉讼是解决环境问题,保护国家、社会和公众环境权益的基本形式和有效途径,也是最后屏障。从国内一起环境公益诉讼案件出发,借鉴国外特别是美国环境公益诉讼的经验,提出了建立我国环境公益诉讼制度的若干立法建议,旨在探索一条落实科学发展观的环境保护新思路。     

Mixed oligopoly,foreign penetration,and environmental taxes

This paper examines the impact of foreign penetration on the public firm in a mixed oligopolistic market. Through the establishment of a mixed double oligopoly market, this paper analyzes how the share of foreign investment affects the environmental policy, the pollutant emission, and the social welfare under the condition of the state tax. The results show that: first, the introduction of foreign investment has some crowding-out effects on the social level of output. Second, the entry of foreign investment increases the profit of the public firm by a large margin, and the maximum profit of the private firm has been reduced. Third, the increase of foreign investment in public firm does not necessarily improve the environment.     

绿色投资对绿色福利的影响机制研究

提升居民绿色福利是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的重要体现,也是建设美丽中国的根本要求。基于此背景,从绿色投资的视角,探讨提升绿色福利的路径。首先,依据Lucas-Uzawa的两部门内生增长模型,构建绿色投资对绿色福利影响的理论分析框架;其次,利用1999—2014年省际面板数据,采用Super-SBM方法测定各地区绿色福利;最后,利用系统GMM方法,结合双重差分法(DID),实证分析了绿色投资对绿色福利的影响及传导途径。结果表明:①中国各省域绿色投资与绿色福利之间在1%显著水平上呈现出正向关系,绿色投资每增加100%,居民绿色福利增加1.21%。因此,政府应当采用差异化的利率,减免税收或增加补贴等方式促进绿色投资,积极引导资金流向绿色产业,从而提升公民的绿色福利。②教育程度在1%显著水平上与绿色福利正相关,大专以上学历人口占比每增加1%,绿色福利增加7.78%。因此,政府应该扩大教育支出,增强居民受教育程度,提高公民就业机会和收入待遇。③对外开放度在1%显著水平与绿色福利正相关,且开放程度每增加一个单位,居民绿色福利提高1.91%。对外开放程度越高,越有助于进出口,促进我国国民经济发展,有助于提升绿色福利。因此,政府应当进一步扩大开放,改善进出口产品结构,提高出口技术复杂度,限制高能耗高污染产品出口。④公众诉求与绿色福利在一定水平下显著负相关,绿色福利低的地方,居民表现出更强烈的诉求。因此,政府应鼓励居民积极有序参与环境决策和监管,减少公众诉求的滞后效应。企业与公民之间需要确立共同的绿色福利目标,构建政府主导下的居民绿色消费与企业绿色创新协同机制,提升公共服务质量,完善环境和经济协同发展,实现绿色福利提升的目的。     

International consensus principles for ethical wildlife control

Human–wildlife conflicts are commonly addressed by excluding, relocating, or lethally controlling animals with the goal of preserving public health and safety, protecting property, or conserving other valued wildlife. However, declining wildlife populations, a lack of efficacy of control methods in achieving desired outcomes, and changes in how people value animals have triggered widespread acknowledgment of the need for ethical and evidence‐based approaches to managing such conflicts. We explored international perspectives on and experiences with human–wildlife conflicts to develop principles for ethical wildlife control. A diverse panel of 20 experts convened at a 2‐day workshop and developed the principles through a facilitated engagement process and discussion. They determined that efforts to control wildlife should begin wherever possible by altering the human practices that cause human–wildlife conflict and by developing a culture of coexistence; be justified by evidence that significant harms are being caused to people, property, livelihoods, ecosystems, and/or other animals; have measurable outcome‐based objectives that are clear, achievable, monitored, and adaptive; predictably minimize animal welfare harms to the fewest number of animals; be informed by community values as well as scientific, technical, and practical information; be integrated into plans for systematic long‐term management; and be based on the specifics of the situation rather than negative labels (pest, overabundant) applied to the target species. We recommend that these principles guide development of international, national, and local standards and control decisions and implementation.     

Welfare Balance of Different Interest Groups During Rural-urban Land Conversion

Rural-urban land conversion is currently a common social economic phenomenon during the process of economic development and rural urbanization in China. Rural-urban land conversion is positively effective as far as social and economic benefits are concerned （Yang, 2002）, but its negative effect is also evident, resulting in such problems as low efficiency of rural land configuration and loss of social welfare. Consequently, farmers should also have an equal chance to enjoy the social welfare enhanced by land conversion. Based on the theories of welfare economy, this paper puts forward policy suggestions by discussing the welfare changes of various interest groups, builds the model of welfare distribution, and analyzes the conditions of maximizing social welfare. The absolute and opposite value of social welfare is closely related with the speed of rural-urban land conversion, and governments should give farmers and collectives fair compensation to make up for the utility loss caused by land expropriation, which are conclusions drawn from this paper. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for regulating targets and evaluation criteria, realizing the mechanism and implementation of public polices during rural-urban land conversion.