COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

雁荡山旅游资源开发与保护

雁荡山位于浙江省温州市东北部的乐清市，具有丰富的旅游资源。阐述了雁荡山的地质景观资源、人文景观资源和生态资源，以及旅游景区建设与发展现状、旅游资源开发和保护，提出了雁荡山游览区开发、科学考察区开发、游息区开发和地质遗迹保护、生态保护和史迹保护的具体措施和办法。     

黑尾近红鲌人工繁殖研究

报道了2001~2003年对长江上游特有鱼类黑尾近红鲌开展人工繁殖试验的结果。黑尾近红鲌亲鱼来源于四川泸州长江上游一级支流龙溪河。催产剂为促黄体素释放激素类似物(LRH A)，绒毛膜促性腺激素(HCG) 与鲤鱼脑垂体(PG)。采用一次注射法，并用干法进行人工授精。共进行了23次人工催产，催产成功的占16次，有效的占3次，失败的占4次；共注射雌鱼70尾，其中46尾雌鱼排卵，平均催产率65.71%，受精率8.33%~100.0%，孵化率0.50%~94.71%，获得仔鱼29.3万尾。对亲鱼选择、催产方法、孵化与苗种培育等技术细节进行了讨论。     

浑河流域鱼类群落特征及其与环境因子的关系

流域水生态调查是对受损的流域水生态系统进行恢复的基础。以浑河流域为例,对全流域62个采样点的鱼类群落进行调查。共采集并鉴定出鱼类34种,隶属于7目10科29属。其中,鲤科鱼类个体数占比最高(88.5%),鳅科次之(6.7%)。依据鱼类群落组成的相似性,利用聚类分析将62个采样点分为3组：组Ⅰ主要分布于浑河上游;组Ⅱ主要分布于浑河中游的各支流;组Ⅲ主要分布于浑河中下游的干流及各支流。指示物种分析结果显示：组Ⅰ指示物种为洛氏鱥、北方条鳅、北方花鳅和中华多刺鱼;组Ⅱ指示物种主要为鲫、麦穗、宽鳍鱲等中度耐污种;组Ⅲ指示物种为餐条。典型对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)结果表明：影响浑河流域鱼类群落结构的主要环境因子为海拔、河流等级、悬浮物(SS)浓度、森林用地比例、农业用地比例和总溶解性固体(TDS)浓度。     

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China’s own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.     

Renewable energy potential in India and future agenda of research

ABSTRACT

Demand of electrical energy is exponentially increasing causing environmental problems due to extensive use of fossil fuels. Hence, research has been promoted in renewable energy technologies to mitigate environmental pollution. Indian subcontinent is rich in renewable energy sources (RES). This paper describes potential of RES and region-wise installed capacity in India. Estimated potential of RES is 57 GW which is targeted to be 175 GW by 2022. A logical framework for our future research work has been presented. This includes performance optimisation of solar pumping system and reliability assessments of the designed system using reliability indices.

Abbreviation: RES: Renewable energy resources; SHP: small hydro plants; GOI: Government of India; MNRE: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy; LHP: large hydropower; BCM: billion cubic metres; PEC: per-capita energy consumption; JNNSM: Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission; DNI: direct normal irradiance; SPV: solar photovoltaic; UMPP: ultra mega green solar power project; GIS: geographic information systems; WMS: wind monitoring stations; MPWL: Madhya Pradesh windfarms Ltd.; MIB: mat river basin; SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool; ROR: run of river; SMS: short message service; CDM: clean development mechanism; NIOT: national institute of ocean technology; LOLP: loss of load probability; CSO: Central Statistics Office; CEA: Central Electricity Authority; TERI: The Energy and Resources Institute; WPI: Wind Power India; IEA: International Energy Agency; EAI: Energy Alternatives India; BKP: Biomass Knowledge Portal; IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency; GAIN: Global Agricultural Information Network; NITI: National Institution for Transforming India; NIWE: National Institute of Wind Energy; UP: Uttar Pradesh; J&K: Jammu and Kashmir; HP: Himachal Pradesh; NR: northern region; MP: Madhya Pradesh; WR: western region; TN: Tamil Nadu; AP: Andhra Pradesh; SR: southern region; ER: eastern region; NER: north eastern region; A&N: Andaman & Nicobar     

可持续发展环境约束条件下的水资源最优配置及实证研究

在相关理论分析和Weber模型的基础上。拓展建立了面向水资源可持续发展的水资源最优配置模型。引入了基于政府管制的影响作用、沿河流域的水用户的实际消耗水量、实际排放水量、河流中可供使用水量及所排放污水水质水平等5个变量函数．通过政府管制下的水质和水量的河道内流量需求等环境约束条件．确保水资源利用始终满足最小基流水量。通过求量优解，计算得出在环境约束下达到最优配置时各个变量函数与对下游地区外部性之间的相关性。接着。本文对陕北黄土高原沿Y河的35家企业进行了实际调查．收集了2个年度共8个季度的观测值，应用计量经济Pand Data模型。对35个节点、8个季度的共280个数据作为混合样本进行经济计量分析。验证了相关结论。最后。还提出一些制定环境约束条件以及水用户间建立水资源环境生态补偿金机制等政策建议。     

洪泛区林地的开发对鱼类栖息地面积的影响模拟

洪泛区的开发利用,必然会导致洪泛区林地糙率的改变。河漫滩也是河流洪泛区的一部分。洪泛区糙率的减小,会使河水流速增大,从而减小鱼类可用栖息地面积。因此,在洪水发生时,为了给鱼类提供避险场所,保护有效栖息地面积,需研究洪泛区林地的开发对鱼类的影响。利用River 2D软件模拟在一定频率的洪水条件下,不同的河漫滩糙率对应的鱼类栖息地加权可用面积(WUA),分析了糙率的改变对河流鱼类栖息地的影响。结果表明:随着河漫滩糙率的降低,加权可用面积(WUA)逐渐减小,河漫滩范围内WUA的变化幅度比较大,河漫滩的特性对鱼类栖息地面积的影响很大。洪泛区植被的砍伐,会使鱼类栖息地面积减小。因此,应防止洪泛区的过度开发,保护河流生态环境。     

矿产资源规划理论的形成和发展

矿产资源规划是区域发展规划的重要组成部分,是政府对矿业经济进行宏观调控的一种手段。本文从理论更新和完善的角度重新确立了区域矿产资源规划的理论体系,提出矿产资源规划理论经历形成、发展与创新三个阶段,并就矿产资源配置与价格规律、矿产资源经济区划理论和可持续发展理论在其中的深远影响进行了初步探讨。     

三峡水库汞活化效应对鱼汞含量影响的预测

报道了三峡库区长江干流江段鱼体汞元素的含量范围为０．０４￣０．４２ｍｇ／ｋｇ（湿重）,高于长江水系鱼体汞含量水平。分析了三峡库区鱼体汞含量高的原因,指出三峡库区毗邻武陵山高汞背景区,主要受汞矿开发、高汞燃煤及城市废弃物排放的影响。利用水库汞活化指数模型,预测三峡水库蓄水后库区干流及４０条主要支流水域汞的活化效应将增强０．３５￣１．５倍,鱼体汞含量将是现在鱼汞含量的１．４￣２．５倍;并根据不同鱼种汞