可持续发展研究的3个关键课题与中国转型发展

从数量扩张的增长模式转向质量提升的发展模式,是中国未来30年转型发展的核心问题.本文介绍了20世纪90年代以来可持续发展在3个关键课题上的研究进展.在经济增长与社会富祉的关系上,指出经济增长对于社会富祉的贡献存在着门槛,跨过这个门槛经济增长对福利贡献的边际效用开始递减;在经济增长与资源环境的关系上,指出经济增长没有导致资源环境消耗的倒U型曲线,在自然资本存在限制的情况下无限的经济增长是不可能的;在政府支出与民生发展的关系上,指出公共支出增大并不必然导致社会福利的提高,而公共支出的结构与方式对民生发展却是极其重要的.在对每个问题分析事实依据、原因解释、政策意义的基础上,针对中国转型发展提出了一些具有长期意义的理论思考与政策思考.     

巧用Premiere Pro 2.0 制作艺术倒计时片头

Premiere Pro 2.0 是用于编辑影视作品的专业软件,可以编辑和制作电影、DV、栏目包装、字幕、网络视频、电子相册等.本文介绍了其自带的制作倒计时片头效果模板的使用方法,提出了利用Premiere Pro 2.0视频转场特效结合专业制图软件制作艺术倒计时效果的具体方法.     

Vegetation restoration dynamics in the forest-steppe system of the middle Volga region

The current dynamics of ecosystems of the forest-steppe system is most adequately described via determining the probable trajectories of changes in its elements in a simple Markov chain. The obtained data have made it possible to determine the direction of succession and draw its scheme. Theoretically possible series of community development are presented. The succession of community restoration from the spread of shrubs over steppificated fallow lands to the formation of low forests of European bird cherry has been analyzed. The restoration cycle of ecosystem dynamics is described by eight age stages.     

黄土高原半干旱区侧柏林群落土壤呼吸日变化及季节动态变化特征

Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake. Based on GIS and RS, GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of desertification in each county around Qinghai Lake in four phases of 1976, 1987, 1995 and 2006. Using the function of intersect and overlay supported by ARCGIS, with analyzing attributes of vector RS images, we obtained transition data and established transfer matrix of land-use types in recent 30 years, besides, protracted land-use transition maps of all desertification classes. In further, we analyzed transition quantity and direction of desertification in each county, moreover, reconstructed the process of spatial-temporal evolution of desertification. The results are showed below: (1) it′s the transition between desertified land and others but not in the desertified that played the main role in Gangcha and Gonghe County, while the transfer between desertified lands were greater than that with other land-use types in Haiyan County. (2) Extremely severe desertified land mainly distributes in Ketu and Sand Islands that belongs to Haiyan County, and moderate desertified land in riversides of Gangcha County, also, the light desertification expanded too rapidly to become the most desertified land-use type in the surrounding of Qinghai Lake since 1976. (3) By using relative change rate of desertified land, the regional variability rank from top to toe was Gangcha, Haiyan and Gonghe.     

城乡交错带土地利用研究——以芜湖市为例

城乡交错带是城市扩展和农村发展的前沿,也是统筹城乡关系的重点地区。选择芜湖市城乡交错带为研究区域,利用2004年土地利用数据分析了芜湖市城乡交错带地域土地利用的现状和存在的主要问题及其原因,探讨了2006年辖区调整后该地域土地利用的对策与措施。     

关于地区绿色距离和绿色贡献的变迁分析

全面建设小康社会必须摒弃“高消耗、高污染、低产出”的模式,树立和落实科学发展观,走绿色发展道路。该文以万元GDP能源消耗、水资源消耗、COD排放、SO2排放4个指标为基础,建立体现经济与环境协调发展的绿色距离和绿色贡献2个综合性指标,以生态省和生态市捐应指标为标准,分析了我国大陆地区各省份对应4个指标的绿色距离和绿色贡献现状。比较分析表明：经济发达地区如北京、上海、江苏、浙江等省份开始向“绿色经济”变迁;经济中游地区如辽宁、河北、湖北、安徽、吉林、黑龙江等省份则处于走出“黑色经济”发展的边缘并向“绿色经济”转化的阶段;其他地区则基本上处于“黑色经济”发展阶段,不仅绿色距离大,而且绿色贡献均小于1。     

Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions

Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state‐and‐transition, species‐distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade‐offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision‐support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade‐offs exist between competing conservation objectives.     

Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom

Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time‐specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die‐off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state‐transition probabilities as functions of environmental factors while accounting for state‐dependent differences in seagrass detection probabilities as part of the overall statistical inference procedure.     

过渡金属掺杂对镧锡烧绿石催化碳烟燃烧性能的影响

催化燃烧是去除机动车排放碳烟颗粒物的有效方法之一.利用CTAB辅助法制备了不同过渡金属掺杂的镧锡烧绿石型La_2Sn_(1.8)TM_(0.2)O_7(TM为Sn、Mn、Fe、Co和Cu)复合氧化物催化剂.采用XRD、氮气吸脱附、SEM、FT-IR、H2-TPR和荧光光谱(PL)等手段表征了催化剂的理化性质,采用程序升温氧化(TPO)技术评价了其催化碳烟燃烧的活性.研究发现,催化剂经900℃焙烧后呈球形形貌,具有相对较大的比表面积(~20 m2·g~(-1)).低价过渡金属离子的掺杂使氧空位的整体浓度增加,有利于催化剂活化吸附氧分子,改变材料的氧移动和氧化还原性能.富氧气氛下,少量过渡金属掺杂提高了烧绿石催化碳烟燃烧的活性和选择性,这与氧空位浓度的增加以及氧化还原能力的提高有关,其中Co-LSO具有较好的催化性能,起燃温度(T10)为379℃,CO_2选择性接近100%;NOx气氛存在可以进一步提升催化剂氧化去除碳烟的活性.利用等温反应和碳烟厌氧滴定实验进行了活性氧浓度的定量和反应动力学分析,并计算出富氧气氛下催化反应的转化频率(TOF),其中Co-LSO样品的TOF值最大为3.20×10~(-3)s~(-1),基于TOF的活性顺序与TPO法得到的起燃性能的结果基本一致.     

关于新乡市建设资源节约型环境友好型城市的思考

建设和实现美丽中国是一个系统工程,要通过建设资源节约型环境友好型城市这一重大举措来实现。根据新乡市高能耗、高物耗、高污染的产业仍占较大比重,粗放型的经济增长方式没有得到根本转变的现实情况,提出了建设资源节约型环境友好型城市应着重解决的几个问题,并提出了相应的对策建议,对于新乡市加快经济结构调整,实现可持续发展和全面建成小康社会的目标具有重要意义。