A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.     

QUALITY OF 1995 SPRING TOTAL DISSOLVED GAS DATA: COLUMBIA AND SNAKE RWERS1

ABSTRACT: The quality of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' (Corps) total dissolved gas (TDG) data base for the 1995 spring spill season was reviewed to determine the value of this information in real-time management decisions regarding river operations. We concluded that problems in transmitting, archiving, correcting and interpreting the records constitute significant sources of data anomalies that affect the accuracy and reliability of information necessary to manage spill and TDG in the Columbia and Snake rivers. The data base that was reviewed covers 25 selected Columbia and Snake river stations, and includes real-time TDG data needed to regulate spill operations to maintain gas levels within state water quality standards and to monitor effects on fish and aquatic life during the salmon migration season. A wide range of anomalies (daily averages missing or in error or based on incomplete records) was detected in more than one-third (37 percent) of the Corps' gas data base. Extreme anomalies (daily averages including errors and discontinuities for more than eight hours in a day) were found in 16 percent of the data base. The Fish Passage Center, also reviewed the Corps' data and reported an overall 33 percent incidence of anomalous days. Despite arriving at similar findings about the Corps' data base, we detected a 28 percent discrepancy in the type of data anomalies between our analyses. Real. time improvements in the quality of the dissolved gas data base are necessary to provide managers with a reliable product from this monitoring effort.     

POSTFIRE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK,WYOMING1

ABSTRACT: Wildfires in 1988 burned over 2000 square miles of the greater Yellowstone area in Montana and Wyoming in the largest fires in the history of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). A four-year postfire study to estimate fire-related changes in suspended sediment transport on the Yellowstone River and its principal tributary in YNP, the Lamar River, benefitted from a recently completed three-year prefire baseline study. Both studies took daily depth-integrated samples from April through September. Fire-related changes in suspended sediment were distinguished from natural climatic variations by two methods: comparison of forecast postfire sediment loads estimated with prefire sediment-rating equations to measured postfire loads; and by postfire changes in suspended sediment load expressed per unit volume runoff. Both methods indicated postfire sediment increases that varied according to season. The higher elevation Lamar River basin had little postfire increase in spring snowmelt season sediment but large increases in summer sediment load. The Yellowstone River had postfire increases in sediment load for the spring but did not reflect the large summer increases of its upstream tributary. The reasons for the difference in postfire snowmelt sediment response are unclear but may relate to basin elevation differences, the effects of unburned watersheds, and cooler postfire springs. The few high streamflow snowmelt events in the postfire period mitigated postfire sediment increases.     

黑龙滩水库水体生态系统酶活力及其生态学意义研究

本文黑龙滩水库水体生态系统中脲酶与磷酸酶活力及其与多种水质参数之间的关系进行了研究，结果表明：（１）酶活力与水质，水温变化呈出现一致的动态变化规律。（２）黑龙滩水库水体中脲酶来源与水生生物关系不大，而磷酸酶主要来自浮游植物和水生细菌。（３）水体中脲酶活力受水中总氮浓度瓣影响，而磷酸酶活力不受水中磷酸盐的抑制。     

试谈建立沱江源头水源保护区的必要性

本文根据沱江源头水源涵养林辽度砍代，导致源头蓄水量锐减，以及滥采乱控矿石，造成资源损失与灾害频繁的严峻现实，提出了建立沱江源头水源保护区的必要性。     

开化县外向型创汇林业的战略模式

我国森林资源少,消耗量大,林业建设资金短缺。如何发展当前的林业生产、筹集林业建设资金,开化县的外向型创汇林业为我们走出了一条具有中国特色的外向型林业建设道路。本文就开化县发展外向型创汇林业的优点、出口创汇的主要对策、主要商品、发展潜力及其前景进行了论述,对目前正在探索适合我国国情的、解决我国林业“两危”的战略对策提供了现实的典型范例。     

WATERSHEDS AS THE BASIC ECOSYSTEM: THIS CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK PROVIDES A BASIS FOR A NATURAL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A scheme is outlined to classify watersheds as ecosystems, based on their natural attributes. Two physical factors of the environment, climate and geology, are selected as state factors. Climate is the master factor that supplies energy and water to all ecosystems; geologic structure supplies the materal from which the forces of climate carve landforms to establish ecosystems. At the next lower level, soil and vegetation interact in a succession of transactions to produce a mosaic of tesseras within each watershed. It is these interacting tesseras that moderate climate and store energy within the ecosystem that influences the embedded stream. At the bottom of the scale is the stream with its passive role and inability to interact with the higher factors of the ecosystem. Thus, we have a controlling force consisting of two elements (climate and geology), a reacting force (soil and vegetation) that responds by circular conditioning to controlling forces, and at the lowest level, the stream which responds to all factors of the living system within its watershed.     

THE EFFECTS OF MINE ACID ON THE POND RIVER WATERSHED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: H₂SO₄ (sulfuric acid) is formed by a chemical process that occurs in unreclaimed coal mines. The highly toxic acid then flows into the lower swamp areas where it causes considerable damage to the ecosystem. The major effect of the acid is the mass destruction of thousands of trees and various other phreatophytic plants. The contamination is so serious that most of the wildlife has migrated out of the affected area of the swamp in order to survive. Certain geological features such as coal bearing monadanocks make the area somewhat sensitive to mining activities and related geologic hazards. New methods of mine acid abatement make the concept of mass reclamation more realistic than at any time in the past. The constant annihilation of swamp life and processes emphasizes the urgent need for reclamation of the swamp.