基于机器学习的恐怖袭击事件后果预测方法研究

恐怖袭击事件通常会造成严重的人员伤亡、财产损失和社会影响,针对在不同场景下发生恐怖袭击所造成的后果进行预测是目前应对恐怖袭击事件急需解决的问题之一。利用多源数据,首先基于随机森林算法对恐怖袭击事件是否造成死伤进行分类预测,进而基于岭回归算法预测事件造成的具体死伤人数。研究结果表明:随机森林在测试集上对有死伤事件的召回率达到0.85,岭回归预测死亡和受伤人数的平均绝对误差分别小于1人和2人。研究结果可为反恐资源配置优化、预防恐怖袭击事件和减少其造成的损害提供辅助决策支持。     

城市湿地生态系统的结构特征及现存问题

对我国城市湿地生态系统的结构特征和存在问题进行了综述。目前我国城市湿地生态系统的结构特征表现为面积小、分布不均、空间结构和营养结构简单、稳定性低、脆弱性强,同时其形态结构具有显著的景观美学特征,但受水环境因素的制约性强。目前的主要问题是：湿地面积迅速减少、空间结构脆弱性加剧、环境污染加剧、生物多样性降低、生物入侵严重、生态系统稳定性下降、水土流失与湖泊淤积严重、规划设计不当、人为干预强烈。通过综述,将增加人们对城市湿地生态系统结构的深入认识,为开展科学保护、建设、开发、利用活动和促进城市可持续发展提供依据。     

生态退耕对安塞县土地利用及其生态服务功能的影响

以生态系统服务价值作为衡量区域生态服务功能的指标,对安塞县1998-2006年间生态服务功能的变化进行了分析。根据黄土丘陵沟壑区耕地坡度与水土流失相关关系以及农户调查数据,对安塞县耕地扰动调节、水分调节、水供应、侵蚀控制以及不同坡耕地食物供应能力的生态服务价值指数进行了修正。在此基础上,分析了安塞县退耕还林还草政策对区域生态服务功能变化的影响。结果表明:生态建设措施使得安塞县生态恶化的趋势得到扭转,其生态服务功能在1998-2006年间增加了12%,其中缓坡耕地、中坡耕地和陡坡耕地的退出,对安塞县生态服务功能增强的贡献率分别为25%,48%,27%。文章还对生态建设的监督与投资进行了讨论,认为基于实验的生态系统功能监测与评估技术才是生态系统服务价值评估的基础;生态建设所带来的生态效益的主要获益者是更大空间范围的利益相关者甚至全社会,因此作为社会代表的政府应成为生态建设的主要投资主体。     

Impact of Cloud on Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of Alpine Meadow in Tibetan Plateau

Meteorological elements and CO2 fluxes over alpine meadow ecosystem were observed continuously from 2004 to 2005in Damxung Alpine Meadow Flux Station,China Flux Network.Based on the eddy covariance CO2 fluxes and meteorological data obtained,the relationships among the CO2 fluxes,the cloud amount,and the meteorological factors in alpine meadow ecosystem were explored and analyzed.Some conclusions can be drawn from the discussion with previous researches as following:(1)the cloud amount can affect the net ecosystem CO2 exchange(NEE)of alpine meadow on Tibetan Plateau;(2)the soil temperature sensitive to the cloud amount,is a major environmental controlling factor for NEE,and closely relates to the maximum of NEE.In the morning period with large cloud amount,the NEE reaches its maximum when the clearness index ranges from 0.5 to 0.7; yet in the afternoon it comes to the maximum with the index from 0.2 to 0.35.The span of soil temperature covers from 12 to 15℃ as the NEE at its highest;(3)the scatterplots between NEE and photosynthetic available radiation(PAR)was a significant inverse triangle in the clear day,two different kinds of concave curves in the cloudy day,and strongly convergent rectangular hyperbola in the overcast day.These differences were controlled by the changes of light radiation and soil temperature.     

鄱阳湖生态环境保护与资源利用技术模式研究

鄱阳湖是我国第一大淡水湖泊,也是国际重要湿地,在维系长江水量平衡和生态安全方面,发挥着十分重要的作用和功能。近年来,鄱阳湖生态环境受到经济发展和人口增长的威胁,主要表现为：湿地生态系统退化,湖泊生态功能下降,流域生物多样性减少,水生植被萎缩,水污染程度日趋严重。湖区内产业结构和资源利用的不合理也限制了其经济发展。建设鄱阳湖生态经济区发展战略的确立要求江西尽快探索出一条保护生态与发展经济的双赢之路。结合鄱阳湖区生态环境与资源利用现状,通过2 a多的集成研究与示范,已形成了湿地恢复、沙化综合治理、农业污染治理和资源合理利用等十多种技术模式,在保护环境的同时提高了农民收入,为实现鄱阳湖生态经济区建设目标提供了技术支撑.     

麻栎混交林空间结构与物种多样性研究

林分空间结构是指林木在林地上的分布格局,以及林木之间树种、大小、分布等空间关系。林分空间结构决定了树木之间的竞争势及其空间生态位,在很大程度上决定了林分的稳定性、发展的可能性和经营空间的大小。研究目的在于揭示麻栎混交林林分空间结构与物种多样性特征,为林分空间结构调整和物种多样性保护提供理论依据。利用混交度、大小比数和角尺度3种空间结构参数,以及丰富度指数、Shannon-Wiener指数、Pielou指数等物种多样性数量指标,分析了青阳县麻栎混交林林分空间结构以及群落物种多样性特征。结果表明:乔木层优势树种麻栎多为中度以下混交,小叶栎和枫香多为强度和极强度混交;麻栎在空间大小和重要值对比上占有优势地位,小叶栎处于次要地位,枫香处于劣势地位为受压树种;从林分平面布局上看,该林分空间分布多为随机分布。分层物种丰富度和Shannon-Wiener指数依次是乔木层<草(含藤)本层<灌木层;而均匀度Pielou指数则是乔木层<灌木层<草(含藤)本层;生态优势度Simpson指数为乔木层>草本层>灌木层;灌木层有17科18属21种植物,淡竹占优势地位,野茉莉、山胡椒等占亚优势地位;草本层有10科12属13种植物,禾叶土麦...     

森林防火 警钟长鸣

提出了森林防火工作中存在的各种不安全的问题,并针对性的给出了相关的解决问题的办法。     

Evaluating Controlling Factors to Ali/(Ca + Mg) Molar Ratio in Acidic Soil Water, Southern and Southwestern China: Multivariate Approach

Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water has been used as an indicator to the effects of acid deposition on terrestrial ecosystems. However, the main factors controlling this ratio have not been well documented in southern and southwestern China. In this study, we presented the variation in inorganic aluminum (Al_i) and Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in different sites and soil horizons based on two to three years monitoring data, and evaluated the main factors controlling Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio using principle component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regression. Monitoring data showed although Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratios in most soil water were lower than assumed critical 1.0, higher molar ratios were found in some soil water at TSP and LXH site. Besides acid loading, both soil properties and soil water chemistry affected the value of Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water. Partial least square (PLS) indicated that they had different relative importance in different soil horizons. In A-horizon, soil aluminum saturation (AlS) had higher influence on Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio than soil water chemistry did; higher soil aluminum saturation (AlS) led to higher Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio in soil water. In the deeper horizons (i.e., B₁-, B₂- and BC-horizon), inorganic aluminum (Al_i) in soil water had more and more important role in regulating Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio. On regional scale, soil aluminum saturation (AlS) as well as cation exchange capacity (CEC) was the dominant factor controlling Al_i/(Ca + Mg) molar ratio. This should be paid enough attention on when making regional acid rain control policy in China.     

Simulated Effects of Acidic Solutions on Element Dynamics in Monsoon Evergreen Broad-leaved Forest at Dinghushan,China - Part 1: Dynamics of K,Na, Ca,Mg and P (7 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Acid deposition has become a concern in south China in recent years. This phenomenon has increased to a dramatic extent with the large use of cars and coal- fueled power plants. As a consequence, soils are becoming acidified and their element dynamics will change. A decrease in the nutrient availability will lead to slower plant growth and maybe to a change in the forest type with current species being replaced by new ones with less nutrient requirements. Because of these reasons, it is important to understand how the dynamics of elements will change and what mechanism is part of the process. This knowledge is important for modeling the acidification process and either finding ways to counter it or to predict its consequences. The primary purpose of this study was to provide information about how the dynamics of K, Na, Ca, Mg and P are affected by acid deposition in a typical forest in southern China. Materials and Methods: Experimental soils and saplings were collected directly from the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan. All saplings were transplanted individually into ceramic pots in August 2000 and placed in an open area near their origin site. Pot soils were treated weekly from October, 2000 to July, 2002 with an acidic solution at pH 3.05, pH 3.52, pH 4.00 or pH 4.40, or with tap water as a control. The concentrations of SO42-, NO3-, K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and available P and the pH were measured in soil and leachate samples taken at different times. The sapling leaves were collected and their element concentrations were measured at the end of the experiment. Results: Concentrations of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg decreased quickly over time, although only Ca showed changes with the acidic solution treatment and soil exchangeable K was stable because of soil weathering. Leaching of K, Mg and Ca was dependent upon the treatment acidity. Soil available P decreased slowly without any correlation with the acidity of the treatment. All the NO3- added by the treatment was taken up by the plants, but the SO42- added accumulated in the soil. Discussion: Amongst the plant species, Schima superba was little affected by the treatment, the leaf P content was affected in Acmena acuminatissima plants and Cryptocarya concinna was the most susceptible species to soil acidification, with a marked decrease of the leaf K, Ca and Mg concentrations when the treatment acidity increased. Conclusions: Simulated acid deposition affected the dynamics of K, Ca and Mg in the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest. The dynamics of Ca in the soil and of K, Mg and Ca in the soil leachates were affected by the acidic solution treatment. If such a soil acidification occurs, Cryptocarya concinna will be amongst the first affected species, but Schima superba will be able to sustain a good growth and mineral nutrition. Recommendations and Perspectives: Acid deposition will lead to imbalance the nutrient elements in the evergreen broad-leaved forest because of accelerated leaching losses of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg. Measures should be developed to slow down soil acidification or nutrient decrease.     

Application of Ecological Classification and Predictive Vegetation Modeling to Broad-Level Assessments of Ecosystem Health

The Little Missouri National Grasslands (LMNG) of western North Dakota support the largest permitted cattle grazing use within all lands administered by the USDA, Forest Service, as well as critical habitat for many wildlife species. This fact, coupled with the need to revise current planning direction for range allotments of the LMNG, necessitated that a broad-level characterization of ecosystem integrity and resource conditions be conducted across all lands within the study area (approximately 800,000 hectares) in a rapid and cost-effective manner. The approach taken in this study was based on ecological classifications, which effectively utilized existing field plot data collected for a variety of previous inventory objectives, and their continuous spatial projection across the LMNG by maps of both existing and potential vegetation. These two map themes represent current and reference conditions (existing vs. potential vegetation); their intersection allowed us to assign various ecological status ratings (i.e., ecosystem integrity and resource condition) based on the degree of departure between current and reference conditions. In this paper, we present a brief review of methodologies used in the development of ecological classifications, and also illustrate their application to assessments of rangeland health through selected maps of ecological status ratings for the LMNG.