基于随机森林的突发事件分级模型研究

突发事件的分级是快速响应和有效应对的基础,为了解决目前突发事件分级宽泛、主观性强和动态适应性弱等问题,将多分类器集成引入突发事件的分级过程中,借助随机森林组合分类器,针对突发事件特征,构建突发事件分级的随机森林模型,形成突发事件分级过程,进而对事前的应急预案制定、事中的应急资源配置和应急决策提供有力支撑;最后,以2014-2016年洪涝灾害突发事件为例检验构建的模型和过程。研究结果表明:与支持向量机方法相比,通过检验随机森林组合分类器分类结果准确率达到97.56%,在突发事件分级的应用上是可行的,进而可为突发事件的快速响应和应急决策提供信息支撑和参考依据。     

MBR技术的发展及应用

介绍了目前MBR的主要类型、膜污染情况、膜清洗方式以及MBR在不同领域的应用情况和工程实例,对MBR技术未来的发展趋势进行了预测。     

Monitoring Regional Riparian Forest Cover Change Using Stratified Sampling and Multiresolution Imagery1

Claggett, Peter R., Judy A. Okay, and Stephen V. Stehman, 2010. Monitoring Regional Riparian Forest Cover Change Using Stratified Sampling and Multiresolution Imagery. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):334-343. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00424.x Abstract: The Chesapeake Bay watershed encompasses 165,760 km² of land area with 464,098 km of rivers and streams. As part of the Chesapeake Bay restoration effort, state and federal partners have committed to restoring 26,000 miles (41,843 km) of riparian forest buffers. Monitoring trends in riparian forest buffers over large areas is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these restoration efforts. A sampling approach for estimating change in riparian forest cover from 1993/1994 to 2005 was developed and implemented in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, to exemplify a method that could be applied throughout the Bay watershed. All stream reaches in the county were stratified using forest cover change derived from Landsat imagery. A stratified random sample of 219 reaches was selected and forest cover change within the riparian buffer of each sampled reach was interpreted from high-resolution aerial photography. The estimated footprint of gross change in riparian forest cover (i.e., the sum of gross gain and gross loss) for the county was 1.83% (SE = 0.22%). Stratified sampling taking advantage of a priori knowledge of locations of change proved to be a practical and efficient protocol for estimating riparian forest buffer change at the county scale and the protocol would readily extend to much broader scale monitoring.     

Effects of Groundwater-Flow Paths On Nitrate Concentrations Across Two Riparian Forest Corridors1

Speiran, Gary K., 2010. Effects of Groundwater-Flow Paths on Nitrate Concentrations Across Two Riparian Forest Corridors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):246-260. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00427.x Abstract: Groundwater levels, apparent age, and chemistry from field sites and groundwater-flow modeling of hypothetical aquifers collectively indicate that groundwater-flow paths contribute to differences in nitrate concentrations across riparian corridors. At sites in Virginia (one coastal and one Piedmont), lowland forested wetlands separate upland fields from nearby surface waters (an estuary and a stream). At the coastal site, nitrate concentrations near the water table decreased from more than 10 mg/l beneath fields to 2 mg/l beneath a riparian forest buffer because recharge through the buffer forced water with concentrations greater than 5 mg/l to flow deeper beneath the buffer. Diurnal changes in groundwater levels up to 0.25 meters at the coastal site reflect flow from the water table into unsaturated soil where roots remove water and nitrate dissolved in it. Decreases in aquifer thickness caused by declines in the water table and decreases in horizontal hydraulic gradients from the uplands to the wetlands indicate that more than 95% of the groundwater discharged to the wetlands. Such discharge through organic soil can reduce nitrate concentrations by denitrification. Model simulations are consistent with field results, showing downward flow approaching toe slopes and surface waters to which groundwater discharges. These effects show the importance of buffer placement over use of fixed-width, streamside buffers to control nitrate concentrations.     

New Development in Study of the Faustmann Optimal Forest Harvesting

Chinese forest resources have become very scarce in the face of rapid economic growth demand, while the reform of collective forest right system is in full swing across the country. It will directly affect the regeneration level of forest resources and the diverse ecological value functions. In this article, the mainstream model paradigm of forest economics, that is, the basic framework of the Faustmann model and its evolution process are made in a more detailed explanation, especially the extended model in...     

Changes in Tree Growth,Biomass and Vegetation Over a 13-Year Period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic

This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation changes in the alpine–birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into 61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant increases in the cover of two vegetation types—“birch forest-heath with mosses” and “meadow with low herbs”, while the cover of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain ecosystems.     

省域粮食单产水平与波动状况研究

在我国宜耕耕地后备资源匮乏的背景下,保障国家粮食安全更多地依靠粮食单产水平的提升.分区域、分作物地研究粮食单产水平及其变化特征有助于把握粮食生产布局规律性,为科学地制定分区和分作物的产业指导政策提供依据.本研究通过"剔除趋势"模型,分析了我国主产省份各类粮食作物的单产水平、变化趋势和波动幅度.研究结果表明:我国粮食主产省份可划分为高产稳产区、中产稳产区、波动区和低产区四大类型,单产水平较高的地区主要分布在黄淮海地区、长江下游以及新疆,单产水平较低的地区主要分布在西部,东北主产区单产年际波动剧烈.为确保国家粮食安全,实现总量平衡和结构平衡,分区域产业指导政策宜分别实施稳定、优化、强基、提升四大战略;分作物产业指导政策方向是,水稻重点采取"南增北稳"战略,避免东北主产区水稻产量占全国比重过大造成风险加大的不利影响,小麦和玉米可重点培育新疆新兴产区能力建设.     

不同类型农户农地投入的影响因素

农户作为农业生产投入的微观主体,其农地投入行为对农业和农村经济发展影响重大.本文以湖北省江汉平原和鄂北岗地6个县(市、区)的473个农户抽样调查数据,构建逐步回归模型,分析不同类型的农户农地投入行为的影响因素.结果表明:①近年来,农户耕地的投入水平处于上升趋势,国家实施的惠农政策取得了积极成效;②相对于消费型农户而言,利润型农户的总投入水平较离;③目前农户农地投入主要是流动资本投入,固定资本投入较少,农业污染较为严重,农业机械化水平有较大的提升空间;④农户农业生产目标决定其农地投入行为:消费型农户与市场联系不太紧密,依据家庭消费需求进行生产投入决策;利润型农户与市场联系非常紧密,追求利润最大化,按照市场行情进行生产投入决策.⑤不同类型农户农地投入的影响因素存在差异:家庭特征和家庭资源禀赋是影响消费型农户农地投入的主要因素;农业生产要素市场、农产品市场和农业政策是影响利润型农户农地投入的主要因素.     

我国林业碳汇市场供需研究——以广东长隆碳汇造林项目为例

广东长隆碳汇造林项目作为我国首个获得国家发展和改革委员会签发的林业温室气体自愿减排(CCER)项目,对于我国林业碳汇参与应对气候变化具有重要的示范意义。本文对广东长隆碳汇造林项目进行了成本收益分析,发现林业碳汇交易价格被远远低估,从而使该项目不具备经济上的可复制性。为探究交易价格被低估的原因,本文考察了林业碳汇市场的供需关系,发现目前碳交易市场对林业碳汇CCER需求不足仅是表象,供需错配才是实质。首先,从需求侧来看,广东省碳排放配额设置过于宽松,缺乏林业碳汇CCER的接纳能力;其次,就供给侧而言,CCER的交易成本很高,且项目申报要求业主为企业法人,这严重限制了林业碳汇CCER的有效供给。鉴于以上问题,本文提出应同时从林业碳汇CCER的需求侧和供给侧着手改革。就需求侧而言,收紧广东省碳排放配额总量,并将林业碳汇CCER交易由补充机制改为配额管理。就供给侧而言,可以结合广东省推进林业碳普惠制度,将项目申报主体和交易主体放宽到独立法人和个人,广泛吸收民间资本、培育大型林业企业开展碳汇造林项目;降低碳汇项目进入门槛,根据省情制定方法学,简化签批手续。     

Effects of Fireplace Use on Forest Vegetation and Amount of Woody Debris in Suburban Forests in Northwestern Switzerland

Urban forests are popular recreation areas in Europe. Several of these temperate broad-leaved forests also have a high conservation value due to sustainable management over many centuries. Recreational activities, particularly the use of fireplaces, can cause extensive damage to soil, ground vegetation, shrubs, and trees. Firewood collection depletes woody debris, leading to a loss of habitat for specialized organisms. We examined the effects of fireplace use on forest vegetation and the amount of woody debris by comparing disturbed and control plots in suburban forests in northwestern Switzerland. At frequently used fireplaces, we found reduced species densities in the ground vegetation and shrub layer and changes in plant species composition due to human trampling within an area of 150–200 m². Picnicking and grilling also reduced the height and changed the age structure of shrubs and young trees. The amount of woody debris was lower in disturbed plots than in control plots. Pieces of wood with a diameter of 0.6–7.6 cm were preferentially collected by fireplace users. The reduction in woody debris volume extended up to a distance of 16 m from the fire ring, covering an area of 800 m² at each picnic site. In order to preserve the ecological integrity of urban forests and to maintain their attractiveness as important recreation areas, we suggest depositing logging residues to be used as firewood and to restrict visitor movements near picnic sites.