"一退两还"中的博弈分析与制度创新

“一退两还”即“退耕还林还草”，是我国政府在世纪之交所作出的一项旨在推进国民经济可持续发展的战略举措。本文运用博弈论的方法，通过对“一退两还”中的各个相关主体利益的思考和行为的辨析，结合分析结论，提出了对提高“一退两还”实施效果具有重要意义的制度创新思路。     

STREAM DEPLETION BY WELLS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN-COLORADO1

The agricultural production from the Lower South Platte Basin in Colorado represents a significant portion of the state economy. Until the early 1950's the production had developed almost exclusively by use of river water. Drought conditions combined with improved well technology resulted in an inordinate amount of well development in the valley during the period 1952-56. These wells were used for supplemental supply in many cases, but the application of sprinkler irrigation brought many acres of here-to-fore dry land into irrigated production. As a result of the vast amounts of groundwater withdrawal by the newly developed wells, senior surface appropriators found a decreasing amount of water available for use in the streams. The legislature, observing the doctrine of prior appropriation, ruled that all surface and ground water in a tributary would be treated and administered as one resource. This, of course, spelled doom for the well-oriented segment of the economy. Analysis of a segment of the river on an inflow-outflow basis was made with careful determination of all inflow-outflow in the study reach to include correlations required to determine ungaged side-channel in-flow and unmetered irrigation wells. Results indicate that wells have intercepted normal return flows to the river resulting in a decreased amount of surface water during the irrigation season. Stream depletion appears to equal the expected consumptive use of well water which ranged between 40% to 50% of the groundwater extraction.     

高阶段尾砂胶结充填体力学研究与博弈树配比优化

在实验室试验了不同配比尾砂胶结试块强度,在充填采场取样测试了采场充填体强度.结果表明,如果以实验室试验的力学参数为充填配比设计依据,充填体最小设计安全系数为1.6～1.8比较合理.分析高阶段充填体受力,推导了分层充填力学计算公式及安全系数计算方法;根据充填工艺,确定最小充填高度,沿采场高度方向划分配比优化单元,建立了高阶段充填体配比优化设计模型;采用博弈树分析方法,解决了高阶段充填体配比优化问题,并对安庆铜矿5号矿房配比进行了优化.结果显示:与经验设计方法相比,采用本文方法优化充填配比,不仅使高阶段充填体内安全系数分布更趋合理,而且降低了水泥消耗.     

Beyond depletion: Daily self-control motivation as an explanation of self-control failure at work

The organizational self-control literature usually applies resource perspectives that explain self-control failure at work by depletion of self-control resources. However, these perspectives neglect the role of self-control motivation. On a daily level, we examine several self-control aspects (resources, motivation, demands, and effort) as predictors of a manifestation of self-control failure at work, namely, daily counterproductive work behavior toward the organization (CWB-O). Additionally, we investigate self-control effort as a mechanism predicting the depletion of self-control resources throughout the day. We analyzed data from 155 employees in a 2-week diary study with 2 daily measurement points. Multilevel path modeling showed that self-control motivation and self-control demands, but not self-control resource depletion, predicted self-control effort. There was an indirect effect from self-control motivation on CWB-O via self-control effort but no indirect effect from self-control demands on self-control resource depletion throughout the day via self-control effort. Findings suggest that self-control motivation is a crucial factor explaining self-control failure at work and cast further doubt on the idea that exerted self-control effort is the only mechanism leading to self-control resource depletion.     

基于改进TOPSIS的受灾点需求紧迫性分级研究

地震发生初期,各受灾点对物资需求的紧迫性存在差异。在应急资源有限的情况下,为提高救援效率,应急资源需要按照受灾点需求紧迫性优先级进行分配和调度。首先,构建了受灾点需求紧迫性评价指标体系,并采用博弈论方法将熵权法和层次分析法相结合,确定权重组合系数及各评价指标综合权重。其次,利用马氏距离和灰色关联分析改进TOPSIS方法,建立了受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级模型。最后,将模型应用于受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级研究,并将该评价结果与传统TOPSIS法的评价结果进行比较,结果表明,该评价方法可以科学、客观地确定权重组合系数,消除指标间相关性,使评价结果符合实际情况,表明该评价方法科学、可行、有效,能为应急救援物资配送提供有效支持和决策。     

基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析

针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。     

基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法

为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估,提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先,通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素,从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系;其次,基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值,最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差;然后,通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影,并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小;最后,通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性,对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。     

The Cost Efficiency of Wild Dog Conservation in South Africa

Abstract:  Aside from Kruger National Park, no other suitable reserves of sufficient size exist in South Africa that will hold a viable population of wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus ). Consequently, conservation efforts have been focused on creating a metapopulation through a series of wild dog reintroductions into isolated fenced reserves. Additional potential exists for conserving wild dogs on private ranch land. Establishing the metapopulation was an expensive process, accounting for approximately 75% of the US$380,000 spent on wild dog conservation in South Africa during 1997-2001. The principal goal of the metapopulation project was to reduce the risk of catastrophic population decline. Now that this has been achieved, we developed a uniform cost-efficiency index to estimate the cost efficiency of current and potential future conservation strategies in South Africa. Conserving wild dogs in large protected areas was predicted to be the most cost-efficient conservation strategy (449 packs/$100,000 expenditure). Establishing the metapopulation has been less cost efficient (23 packs/$100,000), and expansion of the metapopulation was predicted to be even less cost efficient if predation by wild dogs results in additional costs, as is to be expected if private reserves are used for reintroductions (3-13 packs/$100,000). Because of low logistical costs, conserving wild dogs in situ on private ranch land was potentially more cost efficient than reintroducing wild dogs (14-27 packs/$100,000). We recommend that donor funding be used to reintroduce wild dogs into transfrontier parks, when they are established, to maintain the existing metapopulation and to establish conservation programs involving wild dogs on private ranch land. Investing in the expansion of the metapopulation should be limited to state-owned nature reserves willing to carry predation costs without compensation.     

幼儿环境教育实施策略的探讨

开展幼儿环境教育实践的目的是让幼儿成为环境的主人,引导他们自主地欣赏,观察日常生活中具体的环境要素和环境问题,使他们懂得我们周围的环境与人类的一切活动息息相关,并使幼儿逐步养成与环境友善的行为习惯。     

基于系统动力学的食品企业安全生产监管博弈研究

为了研究食品安全生产及监管的内在机理、影响因素及监管模式,采用演化博弈论方法建立了政府监管部门与食品企业之间的博弈模型,运用复制动态方程和系统动力学方法深入分析了食品安全生产中相关主体的决策选择。结果表明:食品企业在追求利益最大化的前提下须主动重视食品安全问题,食品企业的策略选择受安全生产投入成本、处罚成本和声誉收益的影响;政府监管部门的监管行为受监管成本、外部负效益及社会成本等多方因素的影响。因此,增大监管部门惩处力度、降低监管成本、完善社会公众监督机制、强化声誉效应是食品安全问题得以解决的有力保障。