基于博弈论-模糊物元的地下水环境健康评价模型构建及应用

在分析现有地下水环境健康状态评价模型缺陷的基础上,基于可拓学原理,通过信息熵法确定客观权重,层次分析法确定主观权重,结合非对称贴近度方法改进最大隶属度原则及博弈论组合赋权思想得出综合权重,构建了基于博弈论和模糊物元的地下水环境健康状态评价模型,并选取黄河流域4个地区对模型的有效性进行了验证。结果表明,该模型适用于具有模糊性、不确性与多目标的地下水环境健康状态评价,能较好地避免因权重赋值的片面性造成的评价结果偏差问题,其评价结果同时反映了地下水环境健康等级与发展趋势。     

企业环境信息公开与政府监管策略的演化博弈分析

由于企业与消费者、投资者、政府等利益相关者之间存在着信息不对称,而真实的企业环境信息是利益相关者做出决策的必要前提,所以具有良好环境行为的企业愿意公开真实的环境信息,但同时也会使不具有良好环境行为的企业有动机公开虚假的环境信息以谋取额外收益,进而导致企业环境信息的信号传递失效。针对此问题,本文考虑了相关主体的有限理性特征,构建了企业是否真实公开环境信息与政府监管行为交互的演化模型,分析了不同参数的变化对系统演化结果的影响,并通过数值实验模拟了不同初始状态和参数设置下的系统演化过程,得出了一定的结论。研究表明:初始状态时的政府监管概率、政府的监管成本、对企业公开虚假环境信息的惩罚、政府选择监管策略的收益、企业真实公开环境信息的收益和企业的伪装效果系数对系统的演化结果具有重要影响,通过政策手段对这些参数进行调控可以引导系统向良好模式演化,使企业公开真实的环境信息,达到环境信息的信号传递作用。     

环境指标研究进展与分析

对于在可持续发展框架下的环境指标的研究 ,特别是对于PSR概念模型、联结宏观经济与环境的指标、有关自然资源消耗的指标、与空间特征相关的环境指标以及环境指标的整合 5个方面 ,进行了综述与分析 ,同时提出了笔者的观点。      

用参数方程的方法计算氟氯碳化合物的臭氧消耗潜势

在研究同类氟氯碳化合物臭氧消化潜势之间的差异，探讨ＯＤＰ与有关参数必然的内在联系的基础上，建立起两类求算ＨＣＦＣｓ，ＣＦＣｓ的ＯＤＰ的参数方程。一类是以大气寿命τ为参变量的计算ＯＤＰ的参数方程，与之相应，发展了一种仅含氟氯碳化合物分解反应的得     

Background monitoring and long-range transport of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan, Korea

The background concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12were monitored to assess their impact on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming from September 1995 to March 1999 at Kosan, Korea, located at eastern margin of the Asian Continent. The concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 at Kosan have decreased slightly, at a rate of –2.5 pptv yr^-1, over the period in response to the Montreal Protocol. The CFC-12 mixing ratio at Kosan continues to increase in the atmosphere at a rate of 5.7 pptv yr^-1 despite international regulations, because of its extreme atmosphere persistence. Recent trends ofthese two chlorofluorocarbons at Kosan, Korea were concordant with those of the northern hemispheric background monitored unitat Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratios of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan, Korea, were 270±4 pptv inthe spring and 538±9 pptv in the winter, and the corresponding seasonal minima were 267±7 and 529±12 pptv. This occurred in the summer and was due to southeasterlywinds from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. By performing a three-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis, it was shownthat air masses at Kosan, and with the exception of summer, mainly originated from central and northern China. In particular, the mixing ratios of these two contaminant speciesare closely related with their air mass trajectories.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

环境分权下央地企协同减排策略演化——基于区块链技术应用视角

环境分权下，地方政府及控排企业的机会主义行为制约着降碳目标实现，而区块链技术提供了一种可信、高效的协同减排环境。为此，本研究构建了以控排企业、地方政府和中央政府为主体的演化博弈模型，探索区块链技术投入前后的协同减排策略；并借助数值仿真研究了区块链技术的监管影响系数、应用成本及地方支出系数对系统演化路径的影响。结果显示：区块链技术投入缩短了减排系统的趋稳时间；监管影响系数与中央政府对区块链技术投入的支持程度、地方及控排企业的减排参与意愿呈正相关；区块链平台应用成本与地方政府减排参与意愿呈负相关，地方支出系数与中央政府对区块链技术投入的支持程度呈正相关，且均存在最优调控区间。因此，应积极开展区块链监管试点，引导、扶持企业绿色转型，强化中央督察职能，转变地方政府发展理念，保障减排政策落地和区域经济高质量转型。