The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

Diversity and organizational innovation: The role of employee involvement

This study examined the interactive effects of workplace diversity and employee involvement on organizational innovation. Using a sample of 182 large Canadian organizations, we found a three‐way interaction between level of employee involvement, variation in involvement, and racioethnic diversity on innovation. In organizations with high levels of employee involvement, high variation in involvement was associated with higher involvement levels among racioethnic minorities, resulting in a stronger association between diversity and innovation. Furthermore, the association between White employee involvement and innovation was significantly more positive under the condition of high involvement among racioethnic minority group members. Thus, ensuring high levels of involvement among members of historically marginalized racioethnic groups enhances the innovation effects of employee empowerment systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.     

A SELF-VERIFYING HYBRID COMPUTER MODEL OF RIVER-BASIN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. As demands upon available water supplies increase, there is an accompanying increase in the need to assess the downstream consequences resulting from changes at specific locations within a hydrologic system. The problem is approached in this study by hybrid computer simulation of the hydrologic system. Modeling concepts are based upon the development of basic relationships which describe the various hydrologic processes. Within a system these relationships are linked by the continuity-of-mass principle. Spatial resolution is achieved by considering the modeled areas as a series of subbasins. The time increment adopted for the model is one month, so that time varying quantities are expressed in terms of mean monthly values. The model is general in nature and is applied to a particular hydrologic system through a programmed verification procedure whereby model coefficients are evaluated for the particular system. In this study the model is applied to the Bear River basin of western Wyoming, southern Idaho, and northern Utah. Comparisons between observed and computed outflow hydrographs show good agreement. The utility of the model is demonstrated by predicting the effects of various possible water resource management alternatives. The verified hybrid computer program can be digitized for application to the digital computer.     

Women, Health and Humanitarian Aid in Conflict

The burden of political conflict on civilian populations has increased significantly over the last few decades. Increasingly, the provision of resources and services to these populations is coming under scrutiny; we highlight here the limited attention to gender in their provision. Women and men have different exposures to situations that affect health and access to health-care and have differential power to influence decisions regarding the provision of health services. We argue that the role of women in planning is central to the provision of effective, efficient and sensitive health-care to conflict-affected populations.     

CHLOROPHYLL-BIOMASS-NUTRIENT RELATIONSHIPS FOR NATURAL ASSEMBLAGES OF FLORIDA PHYTOPLANKTON1

Parallel determination of phytoplankton biomass and chlorophyll a concentration were made on spring and summer phytoplankton samples collected from 165 Florida lakes. There was a significant correlation between chlorophyll a concentration and phytoplankton biomass (r=0.80; P < 0.01). Chlorophyll content per unit phytoplankton biomass ranged over two orders of magnitude. Nitrogen seemed to be a major factor influencing the chlorophyll content of Florida algae. Multiple regression analyses indicated that phytoplankton biomass was dependent on both the total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration. Nutrient-phytoplankton and Secchi-phytoplankton relationships for the Florida lakes had higher coefficients of determination if chlorophyll a concentrations rather than phytoplankton biomass data were used in regression analyses.     

Changes in interacting species with disturbance

Human-influenced changes in the diversity and abundance of native wildlife in a southern boreal forest area, which became a national park in 1975, are used to develop working hypotheses for predicting and subsequently measuring the effects of disturbance or restoration programs on groups of interacting species. Changes from presettlement conditions began with early 1900 hunting, which eliminated woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and elk (Cervus elaphus), and reduced moose (Alces alces) to the low numbers which still persist. Increases in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), as these other cervid species became less abundant or absent, provided enough alternative food to sustain the system's carnivores until plant succession on previously burned or logged areas also caused deer to decline. With increased competition for reduced food, carnivore species also became less abundant or absent and overexploited some prey populations. The abilities of interacting species to maintain dynamically stable populations or persist varied with their different capacities to compensate for increased exploitation or competition. These relationships suggested a possible solution to the problem of predicting the stability of populations in disturbed systems. For the 1976–1985 period, a hypothesis that the increased protection of wildlife from exploitation in a national park would restore a more diverse, abundant, and productive fauna had to be rejected.     

The social consequences of a natural/technological disaster: evidence from Louisiana and Mississippi

Disaster scholarship shows that people’s relationships stay the same or improve after natural disasters and become worse after technological, or human-induced, events. Using the case of Katrina, this research explores what happens to people’s relationships after a disaster that began with a catastrophic natural event and was followed by numerous failures in the way human institutions responded to the event. Through an analysis of survey data collected in devastated areas of Louisiana and Mississippi in 2008, this study tests how consequences of both natural (damage to the home and having to leave the home) and technological events (distrust in government, stress, concern about toxic exposure, and pursuing litigation) affect people’s relationships with family members and community groups. Damage to the home, distrust in government, and the pursuit of litigation lead to declines in people’s relationships. These experiences are more likely to change intimate relationships (with family) than relationships in the broader community. The relevance that these findings have for creating better social justice outcomes after future disasters is discussed.