Multicompartmental fate of persistent substances

Background, Aim and Scope Modelling of the fate of environmental chemicals can be done by relatively simple multi-media box models or using complex atmospheric transport models. It was the aim of this work to compare the results obtained for both types of models using a small set of non-ionic and non-polar or moderately polar organic chemicals, known to be distributed over long distances. Materials and Methods Predictions of multimedia exposure models of different types, namely three multimedia mass-balance box models (MBMs), two in the steady state and one in the non-steady state mode, and one non-steady state multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model (MCTM), are compared for the first time. The models used are SimpleBox, Chemrange, the MPI-MBM and the MPI-MCTM. The target parameters addressed are compartmental distributions (i.e. mass fractions in the compartments), overall environmental residence time (i.e. overall persistence and eventually including other final sinks, such as loss to the deep sea) and a measure for the long-range transport potential. These are derived for atrazine, benz-[a]-pyrene, DDT, α and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, methyl parathion and various modes of substance entry into the model world. Results and Discussion Compartmental distributions in steady state were compared. Steady state needed 2–10 years to be established in the MCTM. The highest fraction of the substances in air is predicted by the MCTM. Accordingly, the other models predict longer substance persistence in most cases. The results suggest that temperature affects the compartmental distribution more in the box models, while it is only one among many climate factors acting in the transport model. The representation of final sinks in the models, e.g. burial in the sediment, is key for model-based compartmental distribution and persistence predictions. There is a tendency of MBMs to overestimate substance sinks in air and to underestimate atmospheric transport velocity as a consequence of the neglection of the temporal and spatial variabilities of these parameters. Therefore, the long-range transport potential in air derived from MCTM simulations exceeds the one from Chemrange in most cases and least for substances which undergo slow degradation in air. Conclusions and Perspectives MBMs should be improved such as to ascertain that the significance of the atmosphere for the multicompartmental cycling is not systematically underestimated. Both types of models should be improved such as to cover degradation in air in the particle-bound state and transport via ocean currents. A detailed understanding of the deviations observed in this work and elsewhere should be gained and multimedia fate box models could then be ‘tuned in’ to match better the results of comprehensive multicompartmental transport models. ESS-Submission Editor: Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies (matthies@uos.de)     

A tool to aid emergency managers and communities in appraising private dam safety and policy

Issues concerning dam safety and equitable sharing of catchment run-off are receiving more attention throughout the world. This paper assesses these matters in the context of Australia, and the need for policy responses. Landholders often overlook the common law obligation to review/design dams to current standards because of high costs, leaving them vulnerable to litigation if their dam fails. The paper reports on an innovative spillway design/review procedure, applicable to southeast Australia, but transferable to any region worldwide. Dam safety policy models and guidelines derived from international best practice are linked to the procedure and intended to aid government decision-making. The procedure minimises costs to landholders and provides an acceptable level of safety assurance to downstream communities. Also discussed are recent surveys testing community attitudes to the procedure and implemented dam safety and water allocation policies. These further guide any government wanting to implement this'integrated engineering and community partnerships'approach to preventing potential disasters due to private dam failure and achieving sustainable and safe water storage and use.     

Nonparametric MLE incorporation of heterogeneity and model testing into premarked cohort studies

We utilize mixture models and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation to both develop a likelihood ratio test (lrt) for a common simplifying assumption and to allow heterogeneity within premarked cohort studies. Our methods allow estimation of the entire probability model and thus one can not only estimate many parameters of interest but one can also bootstrap from the estimated model to predict many things, including the standard deviations of estimators. Simulations suggest that our lrt has the appropriate protection for Type I error and often has good power. In practice, our lrt is important for determining the appropriateness of estimators and in examining if a simple design with only one capture period could be utilized for a future similar study.     

主元分析-神经网络岩爆等级预测模型

为准确可靠地预测岩爆灾害,构建结合主元分析法(PCA)的径向基神经网络(RBFNN)、概率神经网络(PNN)和广义回归神经网络(GRNN)岩爆预测模型.选取6个常用的参数构成岩爆预测指标体系,采用PCA消除各指标间的相关性并降维,得出3个线性无关的主元即岩爆综合预测指标Y1、Y2和Y3,构成RBFNN、PNN、GRNN...     

2017-2019年扬州市大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统门诊量的时间序列分析

收集扬州市2017—2019年大气污染物细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、二氧化硫(SO_2)、二氧化氮(NO_2)和臭氧(O_3)的日均质量浓度、气象因素(日均温度、相对湿度)以及每日儿童呼吸系统门诊量数据,运用广义相加模型(GAM)进行单污染物和多污染物分析。结果表明,单污染物分析中,大气污染物的质量浓度累积滞后效应均大于单独滞后效应。ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响效应均在累积滞后7 d(lag 07)达到最大值,ρ(O_3)在累积滞后6 d(lag 06)达到最大值。表现为ρ(PM_(2.5))、ρ(SO_2)和ρ(NO_2)在lag 07时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度分别为0.720%[95%置信区间(95%CI):0.346%～1.095%]、6.955%(95%CI:5.197%～8.743%)和2.133%(95%CI:1.516%～2.754%);ρ(O_3)在lag 06时,每升高10μg/m~3,儿童呼吸系统门诊量超额危险度为1.160%(95%CI:0.873%～1.447%)。多污染物分析中,当引入所有污染物(SO_2+NO_2+O_3)时,PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统门诊量风险影响消失。大气污染物浓度的升高会增加儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生风险,并且其影响存在一定的滞后效应,有必要开展有针对性的大气污染物与儿童呼吸系统疾病的预警研究,保护易感人群,合理分配卫生资源。     

添加剂对喷雾-喷动床半干法烟气脱硫性能的影响

研究了3种添加剂(NaOH、CaCl2、NaCl)对喷雾-喷动床半干法烟气脱硫性能的影响,并分析了添加剂增进脱硫效果的机理。试验结果表明：3种添加剂都能显著提高脱硫率,NaOH的效果最佳,CaCl2次之,NaCl较差。     

线性规划方法在环境容量资源分配中的应用

分析了最优化数学方法,尤其是线性规划方法在环境容量资源分配规划中的若干种应用类型,提出了相关的目标函数模型和约束条件模型以及建立模型的基本步骤.以大气环境容量资源分配为案例,建立了大气环境容量分配优化线性规划模型及其边界约束条件.计算表明,线性规划最优化方法是解决区域大气环境容量资源分配的科学可行的方法.     

木屑生物炭在雨水径流中的氮磷淋出和吸附特性

现阶段生物滞留系统的填料存在氮磷营养素淋出及吸附净化效果不稳定的问题.为评估木屑生物炭作为生物滞留系统过滤层填料的可行性,选用传统填料（椰糠、堆肥、陶粒和火山石）作为对比材料,通过理化性质测试、批量淋洗实验、等温吸附和解吸实验,研究木屑生物炭的基本性质、淋出特性和吸附特性,探究木屑生物炭对生物滞留系统的优化效果与改良机制.结果表明,经高温热解生成的木屑生物炭具有疏松和多孔的特性,饱和含水率为195.65%,持水效果好;热解后木屑生物炭表面的氮磷元素转换为稳定的化合物,在批量淋洗实验中其氮素淋出量低、淋出速度快,磷素淋出滞缓但在人造雨水径流的淋洗中保持线型负值增长,吸附效果稳定;在典型雨水径流浓度（2mg·L^-1的NH₄⁺及2mg·L^-1的PO₄^3-）下,木屑生物炭可吸附34.6mg·kg^-1的NH₄⁺和59.5mg·kg^-1的PO₄^3-,具有突出的综合吸附能力;NH₄⁺及PO₄^3-吸附平衡后的木屑生物炭在去离子水中的平均解吸率为21.23%和17.43%,吸附效果稳定.综上所述,木屑生物炭的施用可解决填料营养盐过剩淋出的问题,且具有较好的氮磷吸附效果,可用作生物滞留系统的填料解决雨水径流污染问题.     

平菇菌糠对废水中铜离子的生物吸附性能

针对重金属污染和农业固体废弃物资源化问题,利用平菇菌糠作为吸附剂对废水中Cu2+吸附性能进行研究.通过单因素实验测定pH、吸附时间、温度、Cu2+初始浓度对吸附效果的影响;利用扫描电镜-能谱、红外光谱和X射线衍射对其吸附机制进行了初步探究.结果表明,菌糠浓度为10 g·L-1,pH为6,吸附时间为120 min,吸附温度为30℃,铜离子初始浓度为8mg·L-1的条件下,吸附率可达到74.46%,吸附容量为0.744 6 mg·g-1.实验数据较好地吻合Langmuir吸附等温模型,其相关系数为0.994 9,表明吸附过程主要为单层化学吸附.扫描电镜-能谱、红外光谱和X射线衍射分析显示,平菇菌糠吸附Cu2+过程主要为物理吸附和化学吸附,包括静电吸附、络合和配位等反应,其中起主要作用的基团为—OH、—COOH、—NH等.     

不同城市机动车尾气排放比较及数据可分享性评价

针对我国绝大多数城市缺乏机动车相关基础数据的实际国情,探讨一种基础数据共享的可能性,用于城市机动车尾气排放清单的计算.以北京、上海、天津及成都4个城市为例,通过综合这些城市现有的机动车相关的基础数据（如机动车保有量,车龄分布,基于驾驶特征的发动机比功率（VSP）,外界环境等）,运用模型预测他们的机动车尾气排放并和相应城...