INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

长江铜陵段表层水中重金属含量及存在形态分布研究

通过测定长江铜陵段枯、丰水期江水中cu、Pb、Zn和cd不同形态的含量,分析了4种金属在江水中的存在形态分布,不同水期含量变化,水中悬浮物对金属吸附能力大小,以及近20年来含量的变化情况。结果表明,长江铜陵段江水中各重金属总量丰水期时大于枯水期,重金属各形态含量之间均有差异:丰水期时,各金属会被悬浮物以不同的方式携带进入水体中,cu、zn、Pb以活跃态和稳定态为主,Cd以活跃态为主;枯水期时,Zn主要以溶解态和稳定态为主,Pb以稳定态方式被携带,而80％的Cu、Cd是以溶解态形式存于水中。悬浮物(丰水期)对重金属的吸附能力大小顺序为Pb>Cu>Zn>Cd。与近20年江水中的重金属背景值比较,长江铜陵段重金属含量有普遍升高的趋势。     

STREAM DISCHARGE PREDICTION VIA A GRID BASED SOIL WATER ROUTING WITH PADDY FIELDS1

ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km² watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed.     

四川省珙县地质灾害特征及其防治措施分析

本文从珙县地质灾害的分布特征、影响因素、防治措施等方面作了较为深入的分析和探讨，以期对地质灾害区划和防治有所借鉴和参考。     

黄冈市矿业经济布局研究

文章针对黄冈市矿业经济发展的需要，在充分考虑黄冈市地区经济发展，矿产资源分布，矿业经济合理布局的必要性的基础上，对黄冈市矿业经济布局作了详细深入研究，提出了“一个中心，四个矿业规划区，五类开发矿种，十个矿业基地”的布局构架，为该市矿业经济发展提供了明确的发展思路，并指出了发展重点，也为政府宏观调控和矿政管理提供了依据。     

Methods of Assessing and Achieving Normality Applied to Environmental Data

2 and particle concentrations. Results show that the analyzed transformations work well and are very useful to achieve normal distributions.     

四川花卉业的产业化发展

本文分析了四川发展花卉业的优势和存在的问题，提出了四川花卉产业化发展的指导思想与基本原则、区域布局以及应采取的对策．     

核事故中放射性核素扩散浓度的理论预测

在高斯烟羽模型的基础上,对核事故中放射性云团在大气中的扩散规律进行了研究。利用倾斜烟团模式,考虑实际过程中核素粒子的重力沉降、雨洗作用以及放射性衰变等因素的影响,提出一种迅速估算放射性核素扩散浓度的方法。该方法可计算核事故中连续点源和瞬时点源在不同气象、地形条件下的浓度分布,并可获得地面的干沉积率和湿沉积率。放射性核素浓度的确定是放射性事故抢险救援和辐射防护等工作的基础和前提,是放射性事故应急救援的重要组成部分。该结果在核事故的应急救援过程中,对救援人员划定警戒区和确定周围居民的疏散范围具有重要意义,并可为制定救援方案和应急决策提供科学依据。     

我国物流产业基本经济活动空间格局分析

基于经济基础理论,对1991～2001年间我国各省区物流产业基本经济活动部分进行了实证分析,从省际差异、东中西部差异两个方面分析了我国区域物流产业基本经济活动的省区差异:在时间维度上区域差异呈逐步扩大趋势,在空间结构上表现出较明显的沿海指向性和交通指向性,并以此分析归纳出我国物流产业基本活动的"四区(物流集聚区)一带(物流集聚带)"空间格局特征,进而得出其基本经济活动强度与区域经济发展水平、物流需求程度、科技水平、区位条件、交通等基础设施、政策及历史发展作用紧密相关的结论.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.