可靠性分配理论在系统安全目标实现中的应用

在系统安全理论中,确定各基本事件的可靠度以实现所给定的系统安全目标值问题一直没有得到很好解决。笔者将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,提出了2个层次可靠度分配法:最小割集之间采取可靠度再分配法,对构成最小割集的各个基本事件之间采取等分配法。从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。为便于应用,通过实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,运用该模型可准确、简便地计算出各单元的可靠度,使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化。     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THREE URBAN RUNOFF MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Three urban runoff models, namely, the Road Research Laboratory Model (RRLM), the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and the University of Cincinnati Urban Runoff Model (UCURM), were examined by comparing the model simulated hydrographs with the hydrographs measured on several instrumented urban watersheds. This comparison was done for the hydrograph peak points as well as for the entire hydrographs using such statistical measures as the correlation coefficient, the special correlation coefficient and the integral square error. The results of the study indicated that, when applying the three selected non-calibrated models on small urban catchments, the SWM model performed marginally better than the RRL model and both these models were more accurate than the UCUR model. On larger watersheds, the comparisons between the SWM model and the other two models would be likely even more favourable for the SWM model, because it has the most advanced flow routing scheme among the studied models.     

Simulation modeling and resource management

Simulation models are becoming increasingly important as tools for synthesizing and applying information in almost all aspects of land management. They are particulary valuable for predicting and comparing outcomes of alternative decisions and assumptions. Models also permit managers to consider and integrate the potential influences of a large number of variables.     

ACCURACY OF IMPERVIOUS AREA VALUES ESTIMATED USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA1

ABSTRACT: Remote sensing offers an attractive alternative to conventional data collection employed in the estimation of certain hydrologic model parameters. In this investigation, the standard error of parameters estimated from Landsat data are examined. Relationships between the standard error and the size of the spatial-modeling units are developed that allow extending results to larger areas. Based upon the investigations conducted, a generalized model of the error relationships could not be developed.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION IMPACTS OF A WATER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT - BOISE PROJECT,IDAHO, 1950–19701

ABSTRACT: Public investments in water resource development projects are continually under scrutiny in terms of economic, environmental, and social impacts. Results of an analysis of a water development project that supplies irrigation water in Idaho are discussed in terms of the impact on income distribution and income growth 44 to 64 years after the project was initiated. Gini ratios for the rural farm population of these counties were consistently lower than they were for the United States as a whole and for the state of Idaho. In addition, income distributions tended to become more equitable over time in the water project counties. Rural farm population income growth rates were found to be similar to those for the nation as a whole. Some of the reasons for these results may be related to the tendency for income distribution to become more equitable as income increases, and the fact that average farm size is relatively small.     

THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL TESTS ON THE EXTREME-VALUE TYPE-1 DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of the selections of plotting position formulae and class division schemes on goodness of fit tests are investigated for the extreme-value type-1 distribution using annual flood and annual maximum daily rainfall data. It was found that the plotting position formulae have a minor influence on the tests which involve their use, while the class division schemes may have a pronounced effect on the X²-test. The study also recommended the maximum likelihood method for fitting purposes and a new test which is independent of the afore-mentioned selections for judging the goodness of fit.     

OPTIMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND CROP PLANNING UNDER DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC INFLOWS1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.