安全控制论原理和应用

以系统论、信息论、控制论为指导思想,结合安全系统工程现场实践,对开发、完善安全控制论的理论体系及其应用等方面研究成果作了简要介绍,包括安全控制论的数学模型,安全系统的控制方式,安全计量及其在安全评价等方面的应用.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using regret theory and PROMETHEE under linguistic neutrosophic context

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis.     

The passion bug: How and when do leaders inspire work passion?

Drawing from signaling theory, we propose a work passion transfer model where leaders' passion is transmitted to employees through the former's leadership style and is contingent on employees' perceived importance of performance to self-esteem (IPSE). Data from 201 supervisor–employee dyads from the health-care industry show that leaders' harmonious passion led to employees' harmonious passion through charismatic leadership, whereas contingent reward leadership accounted for the transfer of obsessive passion; IPSE did not play a moderating role for either form of passion. Results from a supplementary study further reveal that the link between leadership and employee passion operated through employees' perception of leader passion and that employees' IPSE accentuated for the relationship between perceived leader obsessive passion and employees' obsessive passion. This study advances research in work passion, leadership, and signaling theory and provides important implications for managerial practice.     

Abusive according to whom? Manager and subordinate perceptions of abusive supervision and supervisors' performance

Recognizing that supervisor–subordinate dyads exist within a broader organizational hierarchy, we examine how the individual's role within the organizational hierarchy influences perceptions of abusive supervision. Specifically, we examine how supervisors' abusive behaviors are perceived by abusive supervisors' managers as well as abusive supervisors' subordinates. Drawing on role theory, we propose that these perceptions will differ. Further, we suggest that these differences will be reflected in different relationships between manager-rated abusive supervision and subordinate-rated abusive supervision and managers' evaluations of supervisor performance. Results from manager–supervisor–subordinate triads indicate differences between managers' and subordinates' view of abusive supervision. Further, managers' perceptions of abuse were related to supervisors' in-role performance, whereas subordinates' perceptions of abuse were related to workgroup performance. In Study 2, we replicate these findings and expand our investigation to an examination of supervisors' contextual performance. Additionally, we examine another contextual characteristic—aggressive climate—and demonstrate it influences how abusive supervision relates to managerial evaluations of supervisor performance. Future research and managerial implications are discussed.     

基于热湿交换理论的巷道风流温、湿度影响因素研究

为了研究巷道风流参数的影响因素、预测风流温湿度的变化规律,结合热湿交换理论,建立了风流与围岩壁面之间热湿交换的数学模型,以及贴体坐标系下围岩内部温度场的导热微分方程;利用数值方法,将围岩内部的导热问题与影响风流参数变化的热湿交换问题耦合起来,并以大柳塔煤矿52505综采工作面为例进行计算,得到了与实测参数较为一致的模拟结果,验证了该数值方法的有效性。研究结果表明:风流温度受原始岩温、入风流温度、局部热源强度等因素的影响,风流相对湿度与入风流温、湿度以及井下湿源的数量和强度有关;巷道壁温作为将围岩温度场与风流参数之间关联起来的主要因素,对模拟结果影响较大,其数值取决于壁面与风流之间热湿交换以及围岩原始岩温。     

城市燃气管网泄漏事故分析知识图谱构建及应用研究*

为深入认识燃气管网泄漏事故的发生发展机理,提高事故分析预测的自动化、智能化、数字化水平,利用知识图谱对燃气管网泄漏事故进行研究。在事故案例分析的基础上,从人-物-环-管的角度对燃气泄漏过程以及火灾爆炸次生事故的相关实体进行归纳梳理,对实体间的逻辑关系和非逻辑关系进行辨识,并对实体的属性进行分类,进而构建出较为全面的燃气管网泄漏事故知识图谱。在此基础上,搭建BP神经网络模型,基于已知实体或属性状态,预测相关联其他实体或属性的状态。研究结果表明:燃气管网知识图谱能够有效展示燃气管网泄漏事故发展的动态过程及相关要素,结合BP神经网络能够有效预测事故的发展路径及相关状态,从而提高燃气管网泄漏事故的分析预测水平与效率。     

西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价

我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出.为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系.根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价.首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况.计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0 66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据.     

Game analysis of Chinese stakeholders in collective forest rights system reform

In the current stage of Chinese forest ownership reform, the central and local governments as well as the forest farmers play different roles with variations in their expected returns. Managing these respective relationships between the forestry stakeholders to maximize their benefits while actively engaging each stakeholder in the collective forest ownership reform process has become an important issue. This study uses the game theory methodology to analyze the relationship between the different reform stakeholders and then builds on the forest farmers’ participation in the reform model process at the reform movement micro-level. This model calculates the forest products equilibrium marketing sales and the government subsidies provided to the forest farmers, when the forest farmers willingly participate in the reform process. It will provide a reliable basis for formulation of government policies which positively impacts Chinese forestry reform.     

Optimizing a warranty–based sustainable product service system using game theory

Abstract

In recent years, the concepts of sustainability and product service system have been closely associated with each other. In today’s competitive markets, due to Extended Producer Responsibility and customer environmental awareness, producers shift from ‘product-seller’ towards ‘product-service provider’ for using the environmental and economic advantages of coupling a product with services. This paper proposes a novel approach to determine the optimal warranty period and the out-of-warranty replacement period, from the point of view of the producer and the customer to minimise the total cost of usage and end of life of product. As regards the fact that adopted strategies by producers and customers sometimes are in conflict and it affects choosing the optimal product usage period, a game theory model was developed in this study. Finally, a case study with data from chain of local notebook service centres was applied to demonstrate some practical aspects of the developed model.