序贯数论优化法和侧影图进行河流优化布点

运用序贯数论优化法(SNTO)对监测点进行分类,同时根据分类结果,基于样本之间的相似性和差异性,构造一Rousseuw定义的函数并做侧影图,以确定各属类的最佳代表点,从而遴选出优化了的点位.     

基于多元回归理论的太湖湖泛预警模型研究

在太湖宜兴段藻源性湖泛高发区设立4个监测点,以湖泛发生的物质基础"藻类生物量"为研究对象,运用数据分析软件SPSS对监测点的藻类生物量、水质、气温等数据进行相关分析,建立了以藻密度为因变量的多元逐步回归模型。结合往年太湖藻源性湖泛发生时的气象条件等历史资料以及相关藻密度阈值的报道,构建了太湖宜兴段藻源性湖泛高发区监测预警模型系统,该模型能够基于监测点的实时水质数据和气象预报数据,对监控区域湖水在未来某时间段内发生湖泛风险的可能性进行分级预警。     

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5–13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection.     

1,3-丁二烯与DNA交联机理的研究——代谢产物在DNA大沟股间交联反应的AM1计算

采用ＡＭ１方法计算了环境致癌物１,３－丁二烯（ＢＤ）的代谢产物１,２－环氧－３,４－丁烯（ＥＢ）和１,２,３,４－二环氧丁烷（ＤＥＢ）与ＤＮＡ腺嘌呤和胞嘧啶烷化反应过程速率控制步骤的活化能,以及ＤＥＢ在ＤＮＡ大沟侧与不同序列ＤＮＡ片断生成烷化股间横向交联产物的结构和能量．结论认为：用烷化反应的难易程度难以解释ＤＥＢ的致突性比ＥＢ约大１００倍的实验事实;强致突的ＤＥＢ可与碱基发生２次烷化反应,生成ＤＮＡ交联产物;而ＥＢ则不能交联,这可能为２者基因毒性差异巨大的分子机制;同时ＤＥＢ在ＤＮＡ大沟侧可与多种不同的ＤＮＡ序列发生股间横向交联,对比在小沟侧只与２种序列交联,此发生股间横交联几率的差异合理地解释了ＤＥＢ致突的碱基选择性     

国土资源规制:基本理论与中国实践

规制是政府或其特定部门,对企业及家庭、组织等行为,依据特定规定进行特定的约束.该文基于国土资源基础及其稀缺性和公共物品属性,以及企业活动的资源环境外部性等理论,提出国土资源规制的概念,认为国土资源规制既是对与国土资源相关的行为的规制,也是以国土资源为手段对企业及地方政府的规制.国土资源规制的基本内容包括:明晰国土资源基础状况、编制区域国土功能区划和国土规划、确定关键性国土资源的开发利用标准;优化国土资源规制路径,强化经济、法律、技术手段在国土资源规制中的运用;评定国土资源规制效果等.中国国土资源规制主要体现在土地参与宏观调控、用水配额管理和制定能源效率标准等方面.依据中国国土资源规制实践,选择出8个包含土地、水、能源、矿产和森林等在内的国土资源规制指标,以期建构我国国土资源规制的基本指标体系.同时,建议加强对重点行业和重点地区的国土资源规制,调整并完善现行统计指标体系和干部考核体系,以适应国土资源规制的需要.     

环境工艺方法论研究——循环法

循环法是现代技术工艺中一类非常重要的方法。本文从环境工艺的角度论述了循环法的定义,枚举了该法在环境工艺中的应用成果,并在此基础上讨论了它的哲学内涵。     

Design of an institutional decision-making process: the case of urban water management

Urban water infrastructure expenditures cause a major financial burden to municipalities. In the opinion of many policy-makers, public funds may alleviate this burden and facilitate environmental policies. However, practice has shown that despite ambitious policies, funding often follows traditional cost-dominated thinking. In Austria, national policy-makers were interested in new guidelines for funding that increase the transparency of the planning, ensure the adequate treatment of ecological problems, and foster stakeholder involvement, but keep the process as simple as possible, and require minimal changes of the current guidelines. An interdisciplinary project team conducted such a study. Its outcome was tested in two pilot projects. Based on these experiences, policy-makers finally implemented the recommended guidelines for the funding of communal urban water infrastructure projects. A general observation about the policy-making process was a conservative attitude of policy-makers. They prefer simple constraints (precautionary principle) and flexible negotiations (delegation) to complex assessment and decision-aid methodologies.     

A Conflict-Resolution Model for the Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater Resources that Considers Water-Quality Issues: A Case Study

The conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources is one alternative for optimal use of available water resources in arid and semiarid regions. The optimization models proposed for conjunctive water allocation are often complicated, nonlinear, and computationally intensive, especially when different stakeholders are involved that have conflicting interests. In this article, a new conflict-resolution methodology developed for the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources using Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and Young Conflict-Resolution Theory (YCRT) is presented. The proposed model is applied to the Tehran aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan area of Iran. Stakeholders in the study area have conflicting interests related to water supply with acceptable quality, pumping costs, groundwater quality, and groundwater table fluctuations. In the proposed methodology, MODFLOW and MT3D groundwater quantity and quality simulation models are linked with the NSGA-II optimization model to develop Pareto fronts among the objectives. The best solutions on the Pareto fronts are then selected using YCRT. The results of the proposed model show the significance of applying an integrated conflict-resolution approach to conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources in the study area.     

模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

煤矿事故预防中的行为激励机制研究

在分析矿业及非矿业事故现状及其原因的基础上,对人的不安全行为进行研究,激励安全行为,抑制不安全行为,将大大减少工作中产生的意外情况,提高人的可靠性,从而降低事故发生的频率。笔者以行为科学和安全激励理论为基础,分析激励与安全行为的关系,依据煤矿事故控制和预防机理,提出煤矿安全行为激励体系构建的思路和构架,该研究成果对减少事故与伤害、提高矿业安全绩效有一定的实用意义和参考价值。