四川德昌县典型泥石流灾害风险评价

四川德昌县虎皮弯沟、凉峰沟和凹米罗沟为凉山州安宁河一级支流茨达河的3条支沟，泥石流危险度依次为0．49，0．65和0．45，分别属于中度危险、高度危险和中度危险的泥石流沟；泥孑亍流易损度依次为0．79，0.82和0.81，分别属于高度易损、极高易损和极高易损的泥石流沟；泥石流风险度依次为0．39，0．53和0.37，均属于高风险泥石流沟，容易造成较大的泥石流灾害损失。2004年8月24日，因持续高强度降雨，导致3沟同时暴发泥石流，给当地社会经济和人民群众的生命财产造成丁巨大损失。建立了泥石流灾害损失评价方法，对这3场泥石流灾害损失进行了评价。针对此类严重灾害的高风险泥石流沟，提出了相应的整治建议，以减少和避免重大灾害的再次发生。     

机械设备故障与事故管理

阐述机械加工企业机械设备的故障分类、原因、机理和管理方法，以及设备的事故管理和工伤事故经济损失。     

区域性洪涝灾害的灾情评估

以区域孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾能力三方面的资料为基础,探讨了如何运用地理信息系统和评估模型进行洪涝灾害灾情评估的思路和方法.经实例验证,综合灾害经济损失总量、区域调节承受能力和灾后社会或部门追加投入总量的洪涝灾度评估方法,可对区域实际遭受洪涝灾害的破坏程度和影响深度做出科学、客观、合理的评估.     

Impact of Land Use on Soluble Organic Nitrogen in Soil

Although it has been hypothesized that soluble organic nitrogen (SON) plays a central role in regulating productivity in some terrestrial ecosystems, the factors controlling the size of the SON pool in soil remain poorly understood. Therefore our principal aim in this work was to assess the impact of seven different land use systems (rough and managed grassland, deciduous and coniferous woodland, heathland, wetland and tilled land) on the size of the SON and inorganic N (NO ₃ ^– , NH ₄ ⁺ ) pools in the surface soil layer (0–15 cm). After extraction with deionised water, we found that in most cases the size of the water extractable organic N (WEON) pool was similar in size to the inorganic N pool. In contrast, the KCl extractable organic N (KClEON) pool constituted the dominant form of soluble N in soils under all land uses, perhaps indicating that significant amounts were held on the soil exchange phase. In contrast to inorganic N, which varied significantly with land use, the size of the KClEON and WEON pool was similar for all land uses with the exception of KClEON in tilled land, where significantly lower amounts were observed. We conclude that SON constitutes an important soil N pool in a broad range of land uses, and that its role in microbial N assimilation, plant nutrition and ecosystem responses to atmospheric N deposition warrants further attention. SAFRD, University of Newcastle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K.     

新疆草地资源特征与生态治理

从新疆草地资源发生条件分析其多样性,对草地退化进行了生态分析,提出了草地生态恢复的生态置换理论与实施方案。     

Sustainability of Current Agricultural Practices in The Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

Cameron Highlands is a mountainous region with steep slopes. Gradients exceeding 20^∘ are common. The climate is favourable to the cultivation of tea, sub-tropical vegetables and flowers (under rain-shelter). Crop production is sustained by high fertiliser and manure applications. However, agriculture in this environment is characterised by high levels of soil erosion and environmental pollution. A study on the sustainability of these agro-ecosystems was conducted. Results indicated that soil loss was in the range of 24–42 ton/ha/yr under vegetables and 1.3 ton under rain-shelter. Sediment load in the vegetable sub-catchment reached 3.5 g/L, 50 times higher than that associated with flowers under rain-shelter and tea. The sediments contained high nutrient loads of up to 470 kg N/ha/yr. The N, P and K lost in runoff from cabbage farms was 154 kg/season/ha, whereas in chrysanthemum farms it was 5 kg. In cabbage farms, the N, P, and K lost through leaching was 193 kg/season/ha. The NO₃–N concentration in the runoff from the cabbage farms reached 25 ppm but less than 10 ppm in runoff from rain-shelters. Inorganic pollution in the rivers was within the acceptable limit of 10 ppm. The sustainability of the agro-ecosystems is in the order of tea { > } rain–shelter ≫ vegetables.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity‐score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.