近60a长三角地区极端高温事件变化特征及其对城市化的响应

基于长三角地区1951~2014年56个国家级气象站点逐日气温记录资料,通过计算极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx,极端最低温TNn,高温日数Htd和低温日数Ltd),利用GIS空间分析技术和Mann-Kendall时间趋势分析方法分析了长三角地区近60 a极端高温事件的空间分异特征和时间变化趋势,并探讨了城市化发展对区域极端高温事件时空变异的影响。结果表明:(1)长三角地区极端高温事件指标均表现为一定的上升趋势,极端低温指标(TNn和Ltd)线性变化趋势比极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)更为显著,变化趋势最显著的地区集中在经济和城市化水平较高的城市及周边地区(如上海、杭州等)。(2)极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)多年平均总体表现为南高北低,西高东低的趋势,而极端低温指标中TNn多年平均为由中部向南北两侧降低,Ltd多年平均呈现自中部向南北南侧增多的趋势。(3)从1990~2000到2000~2010年,城市化对极端高温事件的影响增强,快速城市化对北部城市极端高温事件的影响高于南部城市。     

基于灰色模糊理论的流域水电规划环境影响综合评价

结合模糊优选理论和灰色关联分析方法,提出灰色模糊综合评价法,该方法将灰色关联分析作为优属度确定的隶属度计算方法;提出理想环境序列建立遵循的原则,引入梯形模糊数实现定性指标量化并采用变异系数法确定评价指标权重.应用灰色模糊综合评价法对黄河流域河段水电规划的高坝方案和多级开发方案进行了比选研究,计算了两个方案的优属度及其开发性因子、稳定性因子、保护性因子、经济活力因子、社会可接受因子、环境风险因子等6个指标层优属度,结果表明,多级开发方案总体优于高坝方案;多级开发方案的保护性远好于高坝开发方案,而高坝方案的开发性略好于多级开发方案,稳定性、经济活力、社会可接受、环境风险等因子两种方案比较接近.评价结果与流域实际情况比较符合,证明该方法是一种有效的方法.     

汉江堵河流域地表水质时空变化特征

对汉江堵河流域9个点位为期1年的地表水水质理化特性进行时空特征分析,应用〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗检验进行水质季节性变化分析,聚类分析进行空间相似性分析以确定空间尺度的分类情况,判别分析识别显著性指标,并以此反映上述空间聚类分析结果的差异性。结果表明:①Cl-、总溶解性固体（TDS）及浊度（Turbidity） 3项指标没有表现出显著的时间差异性;②温度、pH、NO-3、TP表现为丰水季显著大于枯水季,而SO2-4、HCO-3、NH+4、 DO则表现出相反的变化趋势,即枯水季显著大于丰水季;③空间聚类分析将采样点分为4类;④判别分析体现出良好的指标降维能力,仅需4个指标（NO-3、TDS、SO2-4、HCO-3）即可反映整体水质的空间差异性。     

Design considerations for environmental sustainability in high density development: a case study of Hong Kong

This study has indicated that there is close relationship between development density and environmental quality; therefore, it is necessary to decide the form of development carefully beforehand. The form of development is shaped either by new development or urban renewal which is a major tactic nowadays adopted by the Hong Kong Government to improve the living condition of the citizens and the quality of the built environment. This study is limited to urban renewal and aims to find out the major urban design considerations for sustaining the environment. Through a questionnaire survey carried out in Hong Kong, the opinions of architects, planners, property development managers, and local citizens were sought and evaluated, and critical design factors for enhancing environmental sustainability of urban renewal projects are highlighted. The results derived from factor analysis indicated that certain design considerations should be incorporated for sustaining the urban environment. “Land Use Planning”, “Quality of Life”, “Conservation & Preservation”, “Integrated Design”, “Provision of Welfare Facilities”, and “Conservation of Existing Properties” were believed to be the significant underlying factors for achieving environmental sustainability of local urban renewal projects. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Sustainable development conflict over freeway construction

Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Oxidative properties of ambient PM2.5 and elemental composition: Heterogeneous associations in 19 European cities

We assessed the extent to which constituents of PM_2.5 (transition metals, sodium, chloride) contribute to the ability to generate hydroxyl radicals (OH) in vitro in PM_2.5 sampled at 20 locations in 19 European centres participating in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. PM_2.5 samples (n = 716) were collected on filters over one year and the oxidative activity of particle suspensions obtained from these filters was then assessed by measuring their ability to generate OH in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. Associations between OH formation and the studied PM constituents were heterogeneous. The total explained variance ranged from 85% in Norwich to only 6% in Albacete. Among the 20 centres, 15 showed positive correlations between one or more of the measured transition metals (copper, iron, manganese, lead, vanadium and titanium) and OH formation. In 9 of 20 centres OH formation was negatively associated with chloride, and in 3 centres with sodium. Across 19 European cities, elements which explained the largest variations in OH formation were chloride, iron and sodium.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of PM10 concentration across Malaysia

The recurrence of forest fires in Southeast Asia and associated biomass burning, has contributed markedly to the problem of trans-boundary haze and the long-range movement of pollutants in the region. Air pollutants, specifically particulate matter in the atmosphere, have received extensive attention, mainly because of their adverse effect on people's health. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the PM10 concentration across Malaysia was analyzed by means of the rotated principal component analysis. The results suggest that the variability of the PM10 concentration can be decomposed into four dominant modes, each characterizing different spatial and temporal variations. The first mode characterizes the southwest coastal region of the Malaysian Peninsular with the PM10 showing a peak concentration during the summer monsoon i.e. when the winds are predominantly southerlies or southwesterlies, and a minimal concentration during the winter monsoon. The second mode features the region of western Borneo with the PM10 exhibiting a concentration surge in August–September, which is likely to be the result of the northward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the subsequent rapid arrival of the rainy season. The third mode delineates the northern region of the Malaysian Peninsular with strong bimodality in the PM10 concentration. Seasonally, this component exhibits two concentration maxima during the late winter and summer monsoons, as well as two minima during the inter-monsoon periods. The fourth dominant mode characterizes the northern Borneo region which exhibits weaker seasonality of the PM10 concentration. Generally, the seasonal fluctuation of the PM10 concentration is largely associated with the seasonal variation of rainfall in the country. However, in addition to this, the PM10 concentration also fluctuates markedly in two timescale bands i.e. 10–20 days quasi-biweekly (QBW) and 30–60 days lower frequency (LF) band of the intra-seasonal timescales. These intra-seasonal fluctuations show strong seasonality with the largest fraction of variance occurring during the boreal summer and the weakest variance during the winter. Generally, the LF intra-seasonal oscillation is stronger compared to the QBW intra-seasonal band.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.