北京城市人口增长调控研究

北京城市人口的增长是必然的 ,但必须对人口规模进行必要的调控 ,这是北京实现可持续发展的需要。北京城市人口增长调控要运用市场化的方式 ,辅之以必要的行政措施 ,以结构调整为导向 ,适度控制城市人口数量的增长 ,重点优化城市人口结构 ,合理调整城市人口空间布局     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Copper fractal growth during recycling from waste printed circuit boards by slurry electrolysis

• Copper fractal growth was observed during WPCBs recycling by slurry electrolysis. • Dendrites fractal growth could be controlled by additive during electrodeposition. • Additive was proved to be an effective way to refine the copper crystal. • These findings contribute to enrich the study of slurry electrolysis. Superfine copper particles could be directly prepared from waste printed circuit boards by slurry electrolysis. Meanwhile, copper fractal growth could be observed. To better understand this phenomenon, the factors that affect copper dendrites in a point-cathode system were discussed in detail. These results showed that the fractal degree of copper dendrites increased as the increase of applied voltage and the decrease of copper sulfate and gelatin concentrations. Sodium lauryl sulfate and hydrochloric acid concentrations could not significantly impact the fractal degree of copper dendrites, while gelatin concentration could. The minimum copper fractal dimension was 1.069 when gelatin and copper sulfate concentration was 120 mg/L and 0.1 mol/L, respectively with an applied voltage of 11 V. Moreover, the results diffusion-limited aggregation model demonstrated that particle translational speed, particle numbers and binding probability significantly affected copper dendrite patterns. The scanning electron microscopy results indicated that the three additives greatly affected the refinement of the copper crystal. These findings contribute to enrich the theoretical study on metals recovery from e-waste by slurry electrolysis.     

氮磷钾对寒害腰果植株恢复生长结果的影响

通过观测不同施肥处理区寒害腰果植株重新开花坐果状况,分析施肥对寒害腰果植株恢复生长的影响,并分析腰果叶片养分含量与结果量之间的关系。结果表明:氮对寒害腰果植株重新开花的花枝数影响最大,钾次之,磷影响最小,随着氮施用量的增加,植株的花枝数逐渐增大;氮是影响寒害腰果植株结果量的主要因素,植株结果量随着氮施用量的增加而增加,磷、钾各处理间的结果量均未达到统计上显著差异;在施氮肥的基础上,配施磷钾肥,可以提高寒害腰果植株结果量,9个施肥处理中以N3P3K2处理的结果量最多。     

基于Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型的中国农业增长的演进特征

论文基于偏离-份额法的Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型,从份额分量、结构分量、净竞争分量和资源配置分量4方面系统研究了1985—2014年间中国农业生产规模及结构的演进特征。结果表明：1）研究期间,中国农业增加值呈现阶段式增长,种植业和牧业是导致农业增长的主要产业,黄淮海区和长江中下游区是全国农业增长的主要区域。2）八大粮食生产区农业产业份额分量均表现出先剧烈波动、后稳步增长的发展态势;各区域产业结构优势总体较弱且进一步下降;净竞争分量变化具有波动性,种植业、渔业促进区域农业总体竞争力的作用增强,林业和牧业的促进作用减弱;种植业和林业改善区域农业资源配置效应的作用增强,牧业和渔业则相对减弱。3）建议各区域结合产业发展优势,制定相关政策加强区域资源整合、农产品流通与技术合作,促进地区农业稳定发展。研究结果可为我国农业生产结构优化及差异化的发展策略制定提供依据。     

1999—2013年中国东北植被物候信息遥感监测

随着3S技术的迅猛发展,用于地表遥感监测的卫星影像数据浩如烟海,而影像上地表植被长势等隐含信息的提取通常工作量大、耗费时间。论文提出了一种计算机自动提取地表植被物候信息的方法,主要用于对地表植被生长季及其年内长势进行快速提取。方法的基本原理是基于NDVI序列数据集,构建时间点对的时长跨度与该点对半方差的函数关系。选择东北松嫩平原地区作为重点试验区,计算了该区域1999—2013年地表植被生长季长度和长势特点,并选择东北地区物候观测数据进行验证分析。结果表明：1）东北地区农耕作物的生长季持续期在107~126 d左右。计算得到的结果与实测数据的最大误差在5 d值域范围内,沼泽植被在160 d以上（误差10 d左右）,草地为120~139 d;2）研究区地表植被的生长盛期峰值出现在第150天前后。结果较为真实、合理地反映了研究区域地表植被的物候信息。     

有机质腐解对穗花狐尾藻生长及生理的影响

以原沉积物和分别添加0.5%与1%有机质(植物残体)的沉积物作为底质培养沉水植物,采用室内模拟实验研究了有机质的腐解过程对穗花狐尾藻生长及生理作用的影响.结果表明,在试验的早期阶段,有机质的腐解对狐尾藻的生长有一定的抑制,但在整个培养阶段,与原沉积物组相比,0.5%有机质的加入,在一定程度上可促进植株生长, 狐尾藻生物量和根系生物量平均增加了12.99%和125.31%,而1%有机质的加入,狐尾藻生长受到抑制.在培养的前16d,有机质的添加抑制了沉水植物狐尾藻叶绿素和可溶性蛋白含量的增加,在培养中后期,0.5%有机质的加入,可促进植株体内可溶性蛋白和叶绿素含量的积累.0.5%有机质添加条件下, 超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性持续升高,添加1%有机质和较长时间处理时,狐尾藻抗氧化酶系统活性先升高后降低. 在培养前期,1%有机质添加组植株丙二醛(MDA)含量比原沉积物组提高了20.13%,但与0.5%组差异不显著,即低浓度有机质的增加能促进狐尾藻生长及生理代谢,但随着有机质增加量的升高对狐尾藻的生理活动将产生不利影响.     

基于定位栏试验的奶牛粪便中雌激素含量特征

为探究奶牛粪便中雌激素含量特征,采用定位栏试验收集奶牛粪便样,采用超高效液相色谱串联(UPLC-MS/MS)法对粪便中4种天然雌激素(雌酮;17α-雌二醇,17β-雌二醇,雌三醇)和2种人工合成雌激素(17a-炔雌醇,己烯雌酚)的含量进行测定,结果表明:6种雌激素的检出率居于8.33％～98.89％之间,4种天然雌激素...     

深圳市环境污染与经济增长关系的实证研究

采用深圳市1996—2009年的统计数据,分析了环境污染与经济增长之间的关系及其影响因素。结果表明,可吸入颗粒物浓度、工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP的拟合曲线呈现典型环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)特征,至2007年,这4个环境指标已经全部跨越拐点,目前处于EKC的右侧。同时,运用灰色关联法分析经济发展、社会发展、环境管理的变化趋势,探讨了深圳EKC的演变主要是由GDP增长、环保投资、职工年平均工资和技术进步等因子驱动的。     

Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).