Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.     

Conserving Connectivity: Some Lessons from Mountain Lions in Southern California

Abstract: Habitat corridors can be essential for persistence of wildlife populations in fragmented landscapes. Although much research has focused on identifying species and places critical for conservation action, the conservation literature contains surprisingly few examples of corridors that actually have been protected and so provides little guidance for moving from planning through implementation. We examined a case study from southern California that combines monitoring of radio‐collared mountain lions (Puma concolor) with an assessment of land‐protection efforts to illustrate lessons learned while attempting to maintain ecological connectivity in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. As in many places, conservation scientists have provided science‐based maps of where conservation efforts should focus. But implementing corridors is a business decision based not solely on ecological information but also on cost, opportunity cost, investment risk, and other feasibility considerations. Here, the type and pattern of development is such that key connections will be lost unless they are explicitly protected. Keeping pace with conversion, however, has been difficult, especially because conservation efforts have been limited to traditional parcel‐by‐parcel land‐protection techniques. The challenges of and trade‐offs in implementation make it clear that in southern California, connectivity cannot be bought one parcel at a time. Effective land‐use plans and policies that incorporate conservation principles, such as California's Natural Communities Conservation Planning program, are needed to support the retention of landscape permeability. Lessons from this study have broad application, especially as a precautionary tale for places where such extensive and intensive development has not yet occurred. Given how limiting resources are for biodiversity conservation, conservationists must be disciplined about where and how they attempt corridor protection: in rapidly fragmenting landscapes, the opportunity for success can be surprisingly fleeting.     

Local Extinction of Dragonfly and Damselfly Populations in Low‐ and High‐Quality Habitat Patches

Abstract: Understanding the risk of extinction of a single population is an important problem in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, including population size, demographic or environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophe, or the loss of genetic diversity. The probability of local extinction may also be higher in low‐quality sink habitats than in high‐quality source habitats. We tested this hypothesis by comparing local extinction rates of 15 species of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) between 1930–1975 and 1995–2003 in central Finland. Local extinction rates were higher in low‐quality than in high‐quality habitats. Nevertheless, for the three most common species there were no differences in extinction rates between low‐ and high‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that a good understanding of habitat quality is crucial for the conservation of species in heterogeneous landscapes.     

A Multispecies Framework for Landscape Conservation Planning

Abstract: Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single‐species assessments and ecosystem‐level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km² with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade‐offs of different scenarios of land‐cover change in terms of species occupancy.     

The Contribution of Habitat Loss to Changes in Body Size, Allometry, and Bilateral Asymmetry in Two Eleutherodactylus Frogs from Puerto Rico

Abstract:  Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide and the exact mechanisms underlying these changes are not well understood. We examined environmentally induced phenotypic changes that may reflect ongoing stresses on individuals and therefore their ability to persist in increasingly changing landscapes. Specifically, we evaluated the contribution of habitat loss on the size, allometry, and levels of fluctuating asymmetry of Eleutherodactylus antillensis and E. coqui , 2 common species that are endemic to Puerto Rico. We x-rayed frogs collected at 9 sites that differed in the amount of forest cover and measured their snout-vent, radio-ulna, femur, and tibio-fibula lengths. E. antillensis and E. coqui were smaller in the highly disturbed (≤20% forest cover) than in the intermediately (20–70% forest cover) and little-disturbed (≥70% forest cover) landscapes. In E. antillensis but not in E. coqui , the slope and intercept of the curves relating snout-vent length with the length of the 3 bones differed with degree of forest cover, suggesting an effect of habitat loss on body shape. In E. antillensis and E. coqui , differences between right and left sides corresponded to true fluctuating asymmetry; however, only the radio-ulna length of E. coqui showed a trend toward an increase in fluctuating asymmetry with habitat loss. Because body size scales with a variety of physiological, life history, and ecological traits, conservation programs aimed at monitoring morphological changes in amphibians may help in understanding the mechanisms that contribute to their persistence in changing environments.     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

Isotopes in teeth and a cryptic population of coastal freshwater seals

Human activities threaten the biodiversity of aquatic mammals across the globe. Conservation of these species hinges on the ability to delineate movements and foraging behaviors of animals, but gaining such insights is hampered by difficulties in tracing individuals over their lives. We determined isotope ratios in teeth (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹³C/¹²C, and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to examine lifelong movement and resource-use patterns of a unique freshwater population of a wide-ranging pinniped species (harbor seal [Phoca vitulina]) that resides in Iliamna Lake, Alaska (U.S.A.). This population's potentially unique migratory behavior and use of different trophic resources are unknown. The isotope ratios we measured in teeth showed that seals were born in the lake, remained lifelong residents, and relied principally on resources produced from in the lake, even when seasonally abundant and nutrient-dense spawning anadromous fish (i.e., sockeye salmon [Oncorhynchus nerka]) were available in the lake. Our results illustrate how serial isotope records in teeth, particularly ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, can be used to quantify how coastal mammal populations exploit both freshwater and marine ecosystems. Understanding lifelong patterns of habitat and resource use is essential information when designing effective conservation plans for threatened coastal mammals. We present the Iliamna Lake harbor seals as a unique case study into how isotope records within teeth can help reveal the cryptic ecology of such a population residing in an intact ecosystem. The results also provide critical baseline information for the Kvichak River system, which is facing an uncertain future due to proposed large-scale industrial development and a rapidly changing climate.     

Setting Practical Conservation Priorities for Birds in the Western Andes of Colombia

We aspired to set conservation priorities in ways that lead to direct conservation actions. Very large‐scale strategic mapping leads to familiar conservation priorities exemplified by biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, tactical conservation actions unfold on much smaller geographical extents and they need to reflect the habitat loss and fragmentation that have sharply restricted where species now live. Our aspirations for direct, practical actions were demanding. First, we identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities. In doing this, we recognized the limitations of incomplete information. We started such a process in Colombia and used the results presented here to implement reforestation of degraded land to prevent the isolation of a large area of cloud forest. We used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would conserve the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia. By at risk species, we mean those that are endemic and have small ranges. The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. We then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, we made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes. Establecimiento de Prioridades Prácticas para la Conservación de Aves en los Andes Occidentales de Colombia