Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.     

Multispecies and Multiscale Conservation Planning: Setting Quantitative Targets for Red‐Listed Lichens on Ancient Oaks

Abstract: Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red‐listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120–140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for “successful conservation” was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km² and 13 km²) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost‐efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.     

四川省甘孜州松茸栖息地动态变化研究

应用3S技术结合野外调查,对甘孜州松茸栖息地10 a间（1994~2004）的动态变化特征进行综合分析。结果表明：（1）根据建群种的生活型可将松茸栖息地划分为3大栖息地类型（12个群系）,分别为硬叶常绿阔叶林栖息地、针阔叶混交林栖息地以及针叶林栖息地;（2）松茸栖息地破碎化整体上呈增加趋势,主要表现为最大斑块指数减小,斑块边界总密度、形状指数及多样性指数增大;（3）至2004年松茸栖息地总面积达1 728 96309 hm2,较1994年面积增加4329%;新增川滇高山栎川西云杉混交林和高山松黄背栎混交林两大斑块类型,面积分别为409 95468 hm2和24 61428 hm2;栖息地面积、类型及数量的增加,对破碎化的发展速度起到一定的延缓作用;（4）鳞皮冷杉林、高山松林、川滇高山栎川西云杉混交林以及高山栎鳞皮冷杉混交林为栖息地的优势斑块类型,有必要对其乔木层片与灌木层片中栎类植物的组成比例进行调整,改善栖息地环境质量     

Burrowing bird's decline driven by EIA over-use

Modifications to ecosystems often lead to externalities that can be assigned an economic value and traded in ecosystem service markets. One such value may include the provisioning of nest sites for organisms that would otherwise be ousted from the surrounding cultural landscape, such as the sand martin (Riparia riparia), small passerine utilizing river bank rippings when available. The studied sand martin population was initially characterized as relying heavily on human activities for habitat, as extensive river regulation caused the relocation of 97% of Czech sand martins to man-made habitats, most commonly sandpits and gravel-sandpits. The socioeconomic changes and strict implementation of the EIA law had further detrimental effects on this species, which already adjusted to the human-dominated landscape, ousting it for a second time from its key nesting habitats, causing closure 86% of sandpits with only occasional quarrying and closure of 47% of those with regular small-scale regular quarrying. Meanwhile, large-scale quarries remained nearly unaffected. Conversion of any actively quarried site to that with vertical slopes present, but with quarrying absent, led to the progressive disappearance of sand martin colonies in 73% of sandpits with ceased occasional quarrying and in 87% of sandpits with ceased regular small-scale quarrying. The sharp decrease in the number of nest-sites of a bird protected by law is a gloomy result of the hypertrophied business regulation (EIA is estimated to cost € 970 million annually in the E.U. alone) aimed, paradoxically, to support the environment.     

A Method to Consider Whether Dams Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures

This article provides a method for examining mesoscale water quality objectives downstream of dams with anticipated climate change using a multimodel approach. Coldwater habitat for species such as trout and salmon has been reduced by water regulation, dam building, and land use change that alter stream temperatures. Climate change is an additional threat. Changing hydroclimatic conditions will likely impact water temperatures below dams and affect downstream ecology. We model reservoir thermal dynamics and release operations (assuming that operations remain unchanged through time) of hypothetical reservoirs of different sizes, elevations, and latitudes with climate‐forced inflow hydrologies to examine the potential to manage water temperatures for coldwater habitat. All models are one dimensional and operate on a weekly timestep. Results are presented as water temperature change from the historical time period and indicate that reservoirs release water that is cooler than upstream conditions, although the absolute temperatures of reaches below dams warm with climate change. Stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in reservoir volume, elevation, and latitude. Our approach is presented as a proof of concept study to evaluate reservoir regulation effects on stream temperatures and coldwater habitat with climate change.     

Assessing Linkages in Stream Habitat,Geomorphic Condition,and Biological Integrity Using a Generalized Regression Neural Network

Watershed managers often use physical geomorphic and habitat assessments in making decisions about the biological integrity of a stream, and to reduce the cost and time for identifying stream stressors and developing mitigation strategies. Such analysis is difficult since the complex linkages between reach‐scale geomorphic and habitat conditions, and biological integrity are not fully understood. We evaluate the effectiveness of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) to predict biological integrity using physical (i.e., geomorphic and habitat) stream‐reach assessment data. The method is first tested using geomorphic assessments to predict habitat condition for 1,292 stream reaches from the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. The GRNN methodology outperforms linear regression (69% vs. 40% classified correctly) and improves slightly (70% correct) with additional data on channel evolution. Analysis of a subset of the reaches where physical assessments are used to predict biological integrity shows no significant linear correlation, however the GRNN predicted 48% of the fish health data and 23% of macroinvertebrate health. Although the GRNN is superior to linear regression, these results show linking physical and biological health remains challenging. Reasons for lack of agreement, including spatial and temporal scale differences, are discussed. We show the GRNN to be a data‐driven tool that can assist watershed managers with large quantities of complex, nonlinear data.     

武汉市3种类型湖泊浮游植物群落特点及关键影响因子

为揭示不同类型湖泊浮游植物群落特点及关键影响因子,于2018年春季、夏季、秋季和冬季对武汉市城市(UL)、郊野型(CL)和生态保育区(EL)这3种类型共24个湖泊174个采样点进行了浮游植物和水质参数采样调查.结果表明,3种类型湖泊共鉴定出浮游植物9门159属365种,绿藻门、蓝藻门和硅藻门的种类最多,分别占总物种数的55.34%、 15.89%和15.07%.浮游植物细胞密度变化范围为3.60×10⁶～421.99×10⁶ cell·L^-1,叶绿素a (Chla)变化范围为15.60～240.50μg·L^-1,生物量变化范围为27.71～379.79 mg·L^-1,香浓-威纳(Shannon-Wiener)多样性指数变化范围为0.29～2.86.在3种类型湖泊中,EL和UL的细胞密度、 Chla和生物量均低于CL,而Shannon-Wiener多样性指数则相反.非度量多维尺度分析(NMDS)和相似性分析(ANOSIM)结果表明,3种类型湖泊浮游植物群落结构存在差异(Stres...     

Effect of goethite coating and humic acid on the transport of bacteriophage PRD1 in columns of saturated sand

The transport of bacteriophage PRD1, a model virus, was studied in columns containing sediment mixtures of quartz sand with goethite-coated sand and using various solutions consisting of monovalent and divalent salts and humic acid (HA). Without HA and in the absence of sand, the inactivation rate of PRD1 was found to be as low as 0.014 day(-1) (at 5+/-3 degrees C), but in the presence of HA it was much lower (0.0009 day(-1)), indicating that HA helps PRD1 to survive. When the fraction of goethite in the sediment was increased, the removal of PRD1 also increased. However, in the presence of HA, C/C0 values of PRD1 increased by as much as 5 log units, thereby almost completely eliminating the effect of addition of goethite. The sticking efficiency was not linearly dependent on the amount of goethite added to the quartz sand; this is apparently due to surface charge heterogeneity of PRD1. Our results imply that, in the presence of dissolved organic matter (DOM), viruses can be transported for long distances thanks to two effects: attachment is poor because DOM has occupied favourable sites for attachment and inactivation of virus may have decreased. This conclusion justifies making conservative assumptions about the attachment of viruses when calculating protection zones for groundwater wells.     

Upscaling heterogeneity in aquifer reactivity via the exposure-time concept: inverse model

A novel inverse technique is proposed to quantitatively characterize macroscopic variability in aquifer reactivity in a Lagrangian representation. Reactivity heterogeneity is expressed in terms of distributions of flux over cumulative time of exposure of the solution to reactive surface area, termed here 'cumulative reactivity'. In cases involving single aqueous species the combined effects of physical and reactivity heterogeneity on reactive solute transport can often be established and further investigated through joint distributions of flux over travel time and cumulative reactivity. The inverse technique requires the breakthrough curve of a passive tracer to determine the distribution of flux over travel time, and additional breakthrough curves of reactive tracers provide additional moments of the distribution of flux over cumulative reactivity given travel time. Thus breakthroughs of one passive and two reactive tracers can provide the mean and variance of the distribution of flux over cumulative reactivity. This Lagrangian characterization is achieved with knowledge of the types of reactive surfaces present, but not their spatial locations. The distributions can subsequently be applied via forward modeling using the same technique to predict breakthrough curves of other solutes undergoing first-order reactions in similar physically and chemically heterogeneous configurations.     

Elements of a cost-benefit analysis for improving salmonid spawning habitat in the River Wye

Contingent valuation methods were used to derive an economic value for salmonid spawning habitat restoration. Anglers' willingness to pay for such restoration and farmers' willingness to accept compensation for lost productivity due to the restoration were investigated using questionnaire and face-to-face surveys, respectively. These elements were combined with the Wye Habitat Improvement Project (WHIP) budget into a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) based upon direct use values only. The CBA assumed that the WHIP will improve salmonid stock. Different levels of investment were considered and the CBA gave a positive net present value indicating an economically viable project and benefit-to-cost ratios greater than one for minor projects. However, the number of anglers using the Wye would need to double or triple in order to justify the full WHIP budget. Management of an environmental resource must consider users' and stakeholders' needs and opinions. It was found that anglers on the Wye value habitat/scenery in its own right and that this played an important part in the activity. Farmers' agreement regarding involvement in such projects was more likely to be determined by their political and ethical views than receiving an economic compensation.