Estimating Extinction Risk with Metapopulation Models of Large‐Scale Fragmentation

Habitat loss is the principal threat to species. How much habitat remains—and how quickly it is shrinking—are implicitly included in the way the International Union for Conservation of Nature determines a species’ risk of extinction. Many endangered species have habitats that are also fragmented to different extents. Thus, ideally, fragmentation should be quantified in a standard way in risk assessments. Although mapping fragmentation from satellite imagery is easy, efficient techniques for relating maps of remaining habitat to extinction risk are few. Purely spatial metrics from landscape ecology are hard to interpret and do not address extinction directly. Spatially explicit metapopulation models link fragmentation to extinction risk, but standard models work only at small scales. Counterintuitively, these models predict that a species in a large, contiguous habitat will fare worse than one in 2 tiny patches. This occurs because although the species in the large, contiguous habitat has a low probability of extinction, recolonization cannot occur if there are no other patches to provide colonists for a rescue effect. For 4 ecologically comparable bird species of the North Central American highland forests, we devised metapopulation models with area‐weighted self‐colonization terms; this reflected repopulation of a patch from a remnant of individuals that survived an adverse event. Use of this term gives extra weight to a patch in its own rescue effect. Species assigned least risk status were comparable in long‐term extinction risk with those ranked as threatened. This finding suggests that fragmentation has had a substantial negative effect on them that is not accounted for in their Red List category. Estimación del Riesgo de Extinción Mediante Modelos Metapoblacionales de Fragmentación a Gran Escala     

Global Warming, Human Population Pressure, and Viability of the World's Smallest Butterfly

Abstract:  The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty-first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly, the Sinai baton blue ( Pseudophilotes sinaicus ), as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species, it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case, livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming, grazing, and plant collection, our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming, the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly, implying that there may be an annual average temperature, specific to each endangered species, above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast, there was no such threshold of grazing pressure—the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing, however, decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing, suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels, the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change.     

鲎的保护与族群恢复之研究

从1997年开始在金门进行鲎的保护与族群恢复之研究，内容包括人工培育稚鲎、成鲎引入野外产卵复育试验、人工栖息地复育试验。同时，关于鲎的地理亲缘关系的研究，对探讨西太平洋地区生物多样性成因及三棘鲎的保护遗传问题都具有相当的价值。     

WATER LEVEL MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECOLOGICAL BENEFIT,POOL 5 MISSISSIPPI RWER1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the potential to manage Mississippi River water levels for ecological benefits. The study focuses on the Weaver Bottoms, a 4,000 acre backwater marsh in southeastern Minnesota (Pool 5) highly valued for fish and wildlife habitat. The Weaver Bottoms has suffered increasing loss of aquatic vegetation and associated habitat degradation since the 1960s, largely due to persistent high water, sedimentation, wave re-suspension of sediments, and poor light penetration. In other reaches of the Mississippi River, water level reductions exposing backwater sediments have produced strong vegetative responses due to subaerial exposure of seeds and sediment compaction. Water level management scenarios for Pool 5 were developed using the HEC-2 water surface profile model. Results indicate that in many years it would be possible to reduce water levels sufficiently to expose much of the Weaver Bottoms, generating a substantial vegetative response. Additional benefits could be expected since both sediment compaction and increased vegetation would reduce re-suspension of sediments. Shifting management priorities to improve habitat would temporarily impact many river users, including both commercial and recreational boaters. Water level reductions must be coordinated with their needs.     

Facilitating landform migration by removing shore protection structures: Opportunities and constraints

Recent studies have identified the need to adapt to climate change by allowing landforms and habitats to migrate landward, although implementation of actual adaptation responses is limited. Removing the barriers that shore protection structures create between coastal and upland habitats can reestablish exchanges of sediment and the ecological functions of the natural ecotone. The potential for removing these structures was evaluated in 12 national parks managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Criteria for removal included condition of structures, influence of natural processes, environmental benefits, public safety, and visitor access and use.We found that 145 structures out of a total of 407 could be removed or allowed to deteriorate. We highlight three adaptation projects that are currently being conducted, two of which involve removing structures. Reasons for not taking a more pro-active approach to removing protection structures include (1) conflicting policy directives; (2) presence of key access roads and critical archaeological and historic sites; (3) lack of data; (4) lack of funds and human resources; (5) reluctance to replace known problems with an unknown set of problems; (6) consideration of visitor desires; and (7) reluctance to allow erosion to occur. Demonstration projects are needed to provide information about adaptation strategies that promote enhancement of ecosystem functions. Projects to remove protection structures are likely to be viewed as successful only if results are specified as a positive product, and the distinction between the concept of loss (erosion of existing landforms and habitats) and the concept of gain (evolution of new landforms and habitats) is made clear.     

城市化背景下喀斯特流域生态服务价值时空分异特征——以贵阳市南明河流域为例

以贵阳市南明河流域1990、2000和2013年遥感影像数据为基础,通过多尺度空间单元格及空间自相关分析,结合GIS空间分析技术,定量描述了南明河流域生态系统服务功能的时空分异特征,进一步揭示了喀斯特区域城市发展引起的生态服务价值变化。结果表明:1990~2013年,南明河流域生态服务价值增加6.87亿元,林地生态服务价值增加,而耕地、建设用地的变化造成生态服务价值的损失;流域生态服务价值存在较强空间聚集性,生态服务价值"热点"区主要分布在流域中下游,"冷点"区主要集中在流域中游;随着研究尺度的增加,流域生态服务价值的空间自相关性增强;流域生态服务价值对价值系数缺乏弹性,林地敏感性最高,对流域生态服务价值贡献最大,而城市化进程加快使得建设用地对总生态服务价值的影响程度增加。     

大渡河流域川陕哲罗鲑分布与栖息地特征研究

在实地调查和资料分析基础上,对大渡河流域川陕哲罗鲑栖息地及分布进行了量化分析,并对其适宜栖息地保护河段进行了评估与划分。研究表明:(1)1950~2012年,大渡河流域川陕哲罗鲑分布范围持续减少,损失率高达91.4%,强烈的人类活动(如水电开发)成其主要影响因素;(2)川陕哲罗鲑对栖息地生境质量需求较高,适应水温范围较窄(4℃~14℃)。在不同生活史阶段川陕哲罗鲑对于生境的需求存在差异;(3)大渡河上游干流及众多支流对保护川陕哲罗鲑极为重要。在上游适宜划分为川陕哲罗鲑栖息地保护的河段总长度共计2 222.9 km。根据研究结果,我们建议:(1)川陕哲罗鲑栖息地有效保护,不仅应保护其现有分布区域,而且还应涵盖具有较高保护和恢复价值的历史分布和潜在分布空间;(2)尽快开展大渡河河源区川陕哲罗鲑栖息地保护相关规划和研究工作;(3)为协调流域保护和发展,建议建立完善生态补偿机制。     

2014年秋季大沽河河口浮游植物多样性研究

于2014年9月对大活河口附近海域进行浮游植物监测.共检出浮游植物45种,其中硅藻占93.3％,甲藻占6.7％.浮游植物丰度变化范围为38.5～837.5×104个/m3,平均为273.7×104个/m3.D6点位处丰度最高,D1丰度最低.运用Shannon-Wiener(H’)多样性指数评价,监测站位H’范围为0.94～3.43,平均为1.9.各站位中,生境质量优良站位仅有16.7％,一般的站位占8.3％;差和极差的站位占到75.0％.大沽河河口及附近海域浮游植物群落结构脆弱,生境质量较差.