Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

泥曲河道内最小生态需水研究

生态需水研究是水资源开发和可持续利用中不可缺少的部分,目前计算河流生态需水的方法极多。从保护生物多样性的角度出发,结合河道断面和河道内生物信息,建立生物栖息地指标与流量之间的关系。生物栖息地指标包括：平均流速、水面宽、平均水深、湿周、过水断面面积、水力半径以及加权可利用栖息地面积(WUA)等,综合这些栖息地指标与流量的关系确定南水北调西线工程调水区泥曲河道内最小生态需水,为南水北调西线一期工程可调水量提供参考。结果表明,利用流速、水深、过水断面面积和水力半径确定河道最小生态需水
小于多年平均流量的10%,利用水面宽、湿周、WUA等计算的结果分别是多年平均流量的56%、48%和32%。最终确定泥曲泥柯站河道内最小生态需水为193 m3/s,朱巴站最小生态需水为298 m3/s,位于Tennant法计算结果的“较好范围”生态需水等级,可以对河流栖息地提供比较好的保护。     

上海青浦区不同用地类型河流滨岸带生境及植物群落组成

按照工业用地、农业用地、交通用地、居住用地、绿地和荒地等6类不同用地类型,于上海青浦区选取河流滨岸带样点48个,研究不同用地类型对滨岸带生境及植物群落组成的影响。研究发现：(1)目前该地区河流滨岸带生境优劣程度为：荒地>绿地>农业用地>交通用地>居住区>工业用地。这主要是由于在不同用地类型下人们对河岸类型、滨岸带几何形态以及原有植被的影响所造成。(2)目前该地区河流滨岸带有植物51科118种,平均丰富度水平绿地最高,工业用地最低。从植物的生活型与来源方面看,6类用地类型下的河流滨岸带植物群落组成存在显著差异。工业用地受人为影响强度较大,外来入侵植物比例高达27.22%;农业用地草本平均数量11.75种,为6类用地类型中最高水平;交通用地与居住用地表现出较大人工引种植物比例,分别为37.77%和49.97%;绿地有相对均衡的乔灌草比例,人工引种植物占所有植物的64.05%;荒地缺乏乔木与灌木类型,自然分布植物比例最高,为69.94%。
     

Assessing Influences of Hydrology,Physicochemistry, and Habitat on Stream Fish Assemblages Across a Changing Landscape1

Abstract: We evaluated the impact of land cover on fish assemblages by examining relationships between stream hydrology, physicochemistry, and instream habitat and their association with fish responses in streams draining 18 watersheds of the Lower Piedmont of western Georgia. Several important relationships between land use and physicochemical, hydrological, and habitat parameters were observed, particularly higher frequency of spate flows, water temperatures, and lower dissolved oxygen (DO) with percentage impervious surface (IS) cover, higher habitat quality with percentage forest cover, and elevated suspended solid concentrations with percentage pasture cover. Fish assemblages were largely explained by physicochemical and hydrological rather than habitat variables. Specifically, fish species diversity, richness, and biotic integrity were lower in streams that received high frequency of spate flows. Also, overall fish assemblage structure as determined by nonmetric multidimensional scaling was best described by total dissolved solids (TDS) and DO, with high TDS and low DO streams containing sunfish‐based assemblages and low TDS and high DO streams containing minnow‐based assemblages. Our results suggest that altered hydrological and physicochemical conditions, induced largely by IS, may be a strong determinant of fish assemblage structure in these lowland streams and allow for a more mechanistic understanding of how land use ultimately affects these systems.     

长株潭城市群PM2.5和O3浓度时空分布特征及影响因素分析

基于2015~2019年长株潭城市群PM_2.5和O₃遥感浓度数据,利用空间自相关指数和地理加权回归（GWR）等方法探究PM_2.5和O₃浓度的时空分布特征及相关因素对其影响强度.结果表明：① PM_2.5浓度整体呈现出冬季和春季高,夏季和秋季低的"U"型特征,而O₃浓度则表现为夏季和秋季高,冬季和春季低的"M"型特征,PM_2.5与O₃年均浓度高低排序为：长沙市>湘潭市>株洲市.② PM_2.5与O₃浓度在夏季呈现正相关,秋冬季为负相关,且具有显著的空间集聚特征,O₃浓度高-高集聚区的面积呈现逐年增加的趋势.③GWR结果显示：夜间灯光强度和人口密度都对PM_2.5与O₃具有正相关效应,其中,植被指数（NDVI）、风速和温度对PM_2.5浓度的影响最为显著,而风速和温度对O₃影响强度更为突出,不同因素对PM_2.5和O₃浓度影响具有显著的空间异质性.     

中国大陆沿岸造礁石珊瑚适生区及保护空缺分析

为有效开展造礁石珊瑚的保护与珊瑚礁的修复,需要探明其适生空间分布格局和适生环境条件.采用最大熵模型方法,结合空间分析技术首次对中国大陆东南沿海的造礁石珊瑚潜在适生区进行了模拟预测,并定量评估了珊瑚分布与多元环境因子之间的响应关系.结果表明,中国大陆沿岸造礁石珊瑚的分布主要受到降水、海温等环境变量的影响,最适宜的环境区间...     

中国省域能源消费碳排放时空异质性的EOF和GWR分析

利用自然正交函数(EOF)揭示中国各省份能源消费碳排放量变动的时空特征,借助地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析了碳排放量驱动因素的空间分布状况.研究结果表明:中国省域能源消费碳排放量整体处于增长状态,但其增长速度有减缓趋势;EOF第一模态结果显示,碳排放量以四川省为中心向南北方向扩散,低值区集中分布在西北地区和珠三角地区;第二模态结果显示,碳排放量增长速度表现出西南地区和东南沿海地区较快,而中部省份碳排放量增长速度较慢的态势.碳排放量影响因素的重要程度由大到小依次为:总人口变化量、人均GDP变化量、城镇化率变化量、二产比重变化量、贸易开放程度变化量和能源消耗强度变化量,其中,总人口变化量的影响程度最为剧烈,每当总人口变化1%时,碳排放量相应地会变化0.5358%.     

The impact of grazing on spider communities in a mesophytic calcareous dune grassland

During 1994–1995 and 1997–1998 spiders were sampled with pitfall traps in a botanically rich, mesophytic, calcareous dune grassland in Belgium. As a consequence of intensive cattle grazing, vegetation variation in a large part of the area had diminished. The study area was also patchily grazed by rabbits. Community analysis with TWINSPAN revealed five distinct spider communities. Ecological differentiation was best explained by combination of the habitat variables: distance from grazed or non-grazed vegetation,Rosa pimpinellifolia cover and grass cover in both summer and winter. Species diversity was highest in the border zone between the cattle-grazed and non cattle-grazed sites. Correlation of the most abundant spider species with the vegetation determinants explains the ecological differentiation between the spider communities. Species were classified into seven major groups that reflect the species’ habitat preferences. The group showing clear association with non cattle-grazed, tall vegetation consists of common species. Characteristic species for the intensively cattle-grazed sites are common aeronauts and rare species such asWalckenaeria stylifrons, Mastigusa arietina, Ceratinopsis romana andPardosa monticola. The latter are shown to be dependent on ungrazed vegetation for juvenile development and overwintering. Intensive grazing results in homogeneous short vegetation, which can only be colonized by ‘open ground’ species with a well-developed dispersal capacity, or by species which are not dependent on litter-rich situations for juvenile development. An extensive cattle grazing regime results in a patchy mosaic grassland where, in addition to the above mentioned groups of species, other species survive by migrating between the buffered litter rich ungrazed vegetation and the short vegetation. Additionally, some typical and rare species prefer the transition zone between the grazed and the ungrazed vegetation because they are associated with specific habitat structures or inhabiting ant-species.     

The impact of grazing on spider communities in a mesophytic calcareous dune grassland

During 1994–1995 and 1997–1998 spiders were sampled with pitfall traps in a botanically rich, mesophytic, calcareous dune grassland in Belgium. As a consequence of intensive cattle grazing, vegetation variation in a large part of the area had diminished. The study area was also patchily grazed by rabbits. Community analysis with TWINSPAN revealed five distinct spider communities. Ecological differentiation was best explained by combination of the habitat variables: distance from grazed or non-grazed vegetation,Rosa pimpinellifolia cover and grass cover in both summer and winter. Species diversity was highest in the border zone between the cattle-grazed and non cattle-grazed sites. Correlation of the most abundant spider species with the vegetation determinants explains the ecological differentiation between the spider communities. Species were classified into seven major groups that reflect the species’ habitat preferences. The group showing clear association with non cattle-grazed, tall vegetation consists of common species. Characteristic species for the intensively cattle-grazed sites are common aeronauts and rare species such asWalckenaeria stylifrons, Mastigusa arietina, Ceratinopsis romana andPardosa monticola. The latter are shown to be dependent on ungrazed vegetation for juvenile development and overwintering. Intensive grazing results in homogeneous short vegetation, which can only be colonized by ‘open ground’ species with a well-developed dispersal capacity, or by species which are not dependent on litter-rich situations for juvenile development. An extensive cattle grazing regime results in a patchy mosaic grassland where, in addition to the above mentioned groups of species, other species survive by migrating between the buffered litter rich ungrazed vegetation and the short vegetation. Additionally, some typical and rare species prefer the transition zone between the grazed and the ungrazed vegetation because they are associated with specific habitat structures or inhabiting ant-species. Nomenclature: Roberts (1987, 1995) forAraneae; van der Meijden et al. (1990) for vascular plants; Corly et al. (1981) for bryophytes; Schaminée et al. (1996) for vegetation associations.