气候变化对文冠果适宜生境及空间迁移的影响

以文冠果当前地理分布数据为基础,采用物种分布模型（SDM）预测未来气候变化条件下的物种适宜生境及其空间迁移趋势,进而识别可能引起迁移的气候异常因子.结果表明：在当前气候条件下,文冠果适宜生境集中于甘肃东部、宁夏南部、陕西中北部、山西中部及南部,以及青海东部边缘、内蒙-陕西边界区域、河南北部和河北西北部边缘等地区;在气候变化条件下,文冠果适宜生境呈现出整体分布格局基本不变的基础上高适宜生境略有缩减且向东迁移的趋势,不同气候变化情景下的生境丧失率为3.73%~16.6%;在未来极端气候变化情景下,文冠果空间迁移格局绝大部分适宜生境仍为恒有稳定区,迁出丧失区主要集中在适宜生境的西北部和东南部且呈连续分布,迁入新增区仅零散分布于适宜生境的边缘地带,包括内蒙与陕西交界处、山西北部等地;采用多元环境相似度面（MESS）和最不相似变量（MOD）空间分析识别出气候异常区主要位于当前适宜生境的南北边缘,与空间迁移格局相一致.可能引起空间迁移的气候异常因子主要为年平均温度、降水量变异系数和年均降水量.空间迁移区域作为气候变化的高敏感区应予以重视,同时应针对不同的空间迁移区域制定合理有效的资源利用和土地管理策略.     

WATERSHED IMPERVIOUSNESS IMPACTS ON STREAM CHANNEL CONDITION IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: Forty‐six independent stream reaches in southeastern Pennsylvania were surveyed to assess the relationships between geomorphic and habitat variables and watershed total impervious area (TIA) and to test the ability of the impervious cover model (ICM) to predict the impervious category based on stream reach variables. Ten variables were analyzed using simple and multivariate statistical techniques including scatter‐plots, Spearman's Rank correlations, principal components analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA). Graphical analysis suggested differences in the response to TIA between the stream reaches with less than 13 percent TIA and those with greater than 24 percent TIA. Spearman's Rank correlations showed significant relationships for large woody debris and sinuosity when analyzing the entire dataset and for depth diversity and the standard deviation of maximum pool depths when analyzing stream reaches with greater than 24 percent TIA. Classification into the ICM using DA was 49 percent accurate; however, the stream reaches did support the ICM in other ways. These results indicate that stream reach response to urbanization may not be consistent across geographical regions and that local conditions (specifically riparian buffer vegetation) may significantly affect channel response; and the ICM, used in the appropriate context, can aid in the management of stream reaches and watersheds.     

Composition and Toxicity of Residual Bunker C Fuel Oil in Intertidal Sediments After 30 Years

In 1970, approximately 2000 m³ of Bunker C crude oil impacted 300 km of Nova Scotia’s coastline following the grounding of the tanker Arrow. Only 10% of the contaminated coast was subjected to cleanup, the remainder was left to cleanse naturally. To determine the long-term environmental impact of residual oil from this spill event, samples of sediment and interstitial water were recovered in 1993, 1997 and 2000 from a sheltered lagoon in Black Duck Cove. This heavily oiled site was intentionally left to recover on its own. Visual observations and chemical analysis confirmed that substantial quantities of the weathered cargo oil were still present within the sediments at this site. However, direct observations of benthic invertebrate abundance suggest that natural processes have reduced the impacts of the residual oil. To confirm this hypothesis, sediment and interstitial water samples from Black Duck Cove were assessed with a comprehensive set of biotests and chemical assays.Residual oil in the sediments had limited effect on hepatic CYP1A protein levels and mixed function oxygenase (MFO) induction in winter flounder (Pleuronectes americanus). No toxicity was detected with the Microtox solid phase test (Vibrio fischeri). Significant sediment toxicity was detected by the amphipod survival test (Eohaustorius estuarius) in four out of the eight contaminated sediments. Interstitial water samples were deemed non-toxic by the Microtox 100% test (Vibrio fischeri) and the echinoid fertilization test (Lytechinus pictus). Sediment elutriates were also found to be non-toxic in the grass shrimp embryo-larval toxicity (GSELTOX) test (Palaemonetes pugio).Recovery at this contaminated site is attributed to natural processes that mediated biodegradation and physical removal of oil from the sediments. In support of the latter mechanism, mineralization experiments showed that all test sediments had the capacity for hexadecane, octacosane and naphthalene degradation, while chemical analysis confirmed that the Bunker C oil from the Arrow had undergone substantial biodegradation.     

Relation of Lake Acidification and Recovery to Fish,Common Loon and Common Merganser Occurrence in Algoma Lakes

Models are needed that predict both spatial and temporal improvements to ecosystems following reductions of acidifying emissions that produce `acid rain'. Logistic regression models were developed for the occurrence of fish and two fish-eatingbirds, common loons (Gavia immer) and common mergansers(Mergus merganser), using monitoring data collected onlakes across Ontario. These models were applied in the Algomaregion, including the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). Using theWaterfowl Acidification Response Modeling System (WARMS), severalSO₂ emission reduction scenarios were simulated, i.e. thosecontributing to measured 1982–1986 sulphate deposition levels, 1994levels (corresponding to full implementation of Canadian SO₂emission reductions as stipulated in the 1991 Canada/U.S. AirQuality Agreement), 2010 levels (1994 plus full U.S. reductions),and both a 50% and a 75% further reduction beyond 2010 levels. Some habitat improvements in Algoma were predicted under the 2010scenario for all biota, but substantial increases in habitatquality, especially for mergansers, would occur only under further reductions. The TLW showed little change in chemistry orbiota, while lakes near the Montreal River were predicted toimprove substantially.     

‘Tolerable’ hillslope soil erosion rates in Australia: Linking science and policy

This paper reviews water-borne soil erosion in Australia in the context of current environmental policy needs. Sustainability has emerged as a central tenet of environmental policy in Australia and water-borne hillslope soil erosion rates are used as one of the indicators of agricultural sustainability in State of the Environment reporting. We review attempts to quantify hillslope erosion rates over Australia and we identify areas at risk of exceeding natural baseline rates. We also review historical definitions of sustainable, or ‘tolerable’ erosion rates, and how to set these rates. There are many ways to estimate hillslope erosion and these can create confusing results. Moreover their application for land management purposes requires nuanced interpretations that ultimately depend on the desired objective of decision-makers. Soil is the earth surficial material that serves as a medium for plant growth and the notion of tolerable soil erosion arose historically to assess the impact of soil loss on agricultural uses. However now that the impact of erosion on aquatic ecosystems been recognized as a major concern for Australia, the concept of tolerable erosion needs to be revised. Here we discuss three definitions of tolerable soil erosion, following recent literature. We derive estimates of long-term agricultural sustainability based on natural soil production rates and discuss this in relation to other defined land-management objectives such as aquatic ecosystem health. We conclude that the desired objectives of land managers must be clearly articulated before questions of ‘where to invest to control erosion’ and ‘how to assess return-on-investment’ can be answered.     

Urban Plants as Genetic Reservoirs or Threats to the Integrity of Bushland Plant Populations

Abstract:  Remnant plants in urban fringes and native plants in gardens have the potential to contribute to the conservation of threatened plants by increasing genetic diversity, effective size of populations, and levels of genetic connectedness. But they also pose a threat through the disruption of locally adapted gene pools. At Hyams Beach, New South Wales, Australia, four bushland stands of the rare shrub, Grevillea macleayana McGillivray, surround an urban area containing remnant and cultivated specimens of this species. Numbers of inflorescences per plant, fruits per plant, and visits by pollinators were similar for plants in urban gardens and bushland. Urban plants represented a substantial but complex genetic resource, displaying more genetic diversity than bushland plants judged by H_e , numbers of alleles per locus, and number of private alleles. Of 27 private alleles in urban plants, 17 occurred in a set of 19 exotic plants. Excluding the exotic plants, all five stands displayed a moderate differentiation ( F_ST = 0.14 ± 0.02), although the urban remnants clustered with two of the bushland stands. These patterns may be explained by high levels of selfing and inbreeding in this species and by long-distance dispersal (several seeds in the urban stand were fathered by plants in other stands). Genetic leakage (gene flow) from exotic plants to 321 seeds on surrounding remnant or bushland plants has not occurred. Our results demonstrate the conservation value of this group of urban plants, which are viable, productive, genetically diverse, and interconnected with bushland plants. Gene flow has apparently not yet led to genetic contamination of bushland populations, but high levels of inbreeding would make this a rare event and difficult to detect. Remnant plants in urban gardens could successfully contribute to recovery plans for endangered and vulnerable species.     

Predicting the Range of Chinese Mitten Crabs in Europe

Abstract:  Ecological niche modeling provides a means for predicting the potential future distribution of a nonindigenous species based on environmental characteristics of the species' native range. We applied this method to the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) , a catadromous crustacean with a long history of invasion in Europe. We used genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction to predict the potential European distribution of mitten crab based on its distribution in 42 locations in its native Asia. The climatic variables, air temperature, number of days, amount of precipitation, and wetness index, contributed significantly to predictions of native distribution limits. Although the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model was developed for the native range, the species' extensive distribution in Europe ( n = 434) allowed independent validation of the predictions. Application of the model to Europe was successful, with 84% of occurrences in regions predicted to be suitable by >80% of the models and <4% of occurrences in areas predicted suitable by <50% of the models (mainly along the northern range). At the watershed scale, areas with established mitten crab populations had significantly higher habitat matching than sites that were not invaded. The independent validation of the Asian-based model by the European distribution revealed that predictions were highly accurate. The model also identified large areas of Europe, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, as vulnerable to future invasion. These predictions can be used to develop strategies to control the spread of mitten crab by preventing introductions into vulnerable areas.     

三峡库区湖北段川明参的生境特征及保护对策

川明参为中国特有种子植物，现仅知分布于我国四川和湖北二省内的局部地区，在三峡库区也有其分布。根据在三峡库区湖北段内的实地调查情况，描述了川明参的分布、生境特点和群落学特征。分析表明，三峡工程的兴建对川明参的影响主要来自工程建设和移民开发的间接影响。针对川明参的生长状况、分布特点和工程影响的程度，提出几点保护建议：（１）加强宣传教育，帮助人们合理利用川明参；（２）建立川明参保护点；（３）开展川明参的生物生态学研究。