Rough Set Rule Induction for Suitability Assessment

The data that characterize an environmental system are a fundamental part of an environmental decision-support system. However, obtaining complete and consistent data sets for regional studies can be difficult. Data sets are often available only for small study areas within the region, whereas the data themselves contain uncertainty because of system complexity, differences in methodology, or data collection errors. This paper presents rough-set rule induction as one way to deal with data uncertainty while creating predictive if–then rules that generalize data values to the entire region. The approach is illustrated by determining the crop suitability of 14 crops for the agricultural soils of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. To implement this method, environmental and crop yield data were spatially related to individual soil units, forming the examples needed for the rule induction process. Next, four learning algorithms were defined by using different subsets of environmental attributes. ROSETTA, a software system for rough set analysis, was then used to generate rules using each algorithm. Cross-validation analysis showed that all crops had at least one algorithm with an accuracy rate greater than 68%. After selecting a preferred algorithm, the induced classifier was used to predict the crop suitability of each crop for the unclassified soils. The results suggest that rough set rule induction is a useful method for data generalization and suitability analysis.     

Assessing Biological Integrity Using Freshwater Fish and Decapod Habitat Selection Functions

Comparison between the number of taxa observed and the number expected in the absence of human impact is an easily understood and ecologically meaningful measure of biological integrity. This approach has been successfully applied to the assessment of the biological quality of flowing water sites using macroinvertebrates with the river invertebrate and classification system (RIVPACS) and its derivatives. In this paper, we develop a method similar to the RIVPACS predictive model approach to assess biological integrity at flowing-water sites using freshwater fish and decapod assemblages. We extend the RIVPACS approach by avoiding the biotic classification step and model each of the individual species separately. These assemblages were sampled at 118 least impacted (reference) sites in the Auckland region, New Zealand. Individual discriminant models based on the presence or absence of the 12 most common fish and decapod species were developed. Using the models, predictions were made using environmental measures at new sites to yield the probability of the capture of each of the 12 species, and these were combined to predict the assemblage expected at sites. The expected assemblage was compared to that observed using an observed over expected ratio (O/E). The models were evaluated using a number of internal tests including jackknifing, data partitioning, and the degree to which O/E values differed between reference sites and a set of sites perceived to be impaired by human impacts.     

景观生态学在建设项目生态环境影响评价中的应用

景观生态学目前是国家环境保护总局《非污染生态影响评价技术导则》引入的概念框架和理论方法。本文通过景观生态学在不同性质建设项目中的运用分析,进行了一定的尝试,更加希望在今后建设项目生态环境影响评价工作中得到修正和完善。     

River systems as providers of goods and services: a basis for comparing desired and undesired effects of large dam projects

In developing countries, large dam projects continue to be launched, primarily to secure a time-stable freshwater supply and to generate hydropower. Meanwhile, calls for environmentally sustainable development put pressure on the dam-building industry to integrate ecological concerns in project planning and decision-making. Such integration requires environmental impact statements (EISs) that can communicate the societal implications of the ecological effects in terms that are understandable and useful to planners and decision-makers. The purpose of this study is to develop a basic framework for assessing the societal implications of the river ecological effects expected of a proposed large dam project. The aim is to facilitate a comparison of desired and potential undesired effects on-site and downstream. The study involves two main tasks: to identify key river goods and services that a river system may provide, and to analyze how the implementation of a large dam project may alter the on-site capacity and downstream potentials to derive river goods and services from the river system. Three river goods and six river services are identified. River goods are defined as extractable partly man-made products and river services as naturally sustained processes. By four main types of flow manipulations, a large dam project improves the on-site capacity to derive desired river goods, but simultaneously threatens the provision of desirable river goods and services downstream. However, by adjusting the site, design, and operational schedule of the proposed dam project, undesirable effects on river goods and services can be minimized.     

Public involvement in environmental assessment: the case of the nonparticipant

Public involvement is recognized by legislators, practitioners, academics, nongovernment organizations and, most importantly, affected communities, as a fundamental component of environmental assessment (EA) processes. Experience with public involvement in EA has proven, however, that despite good intentions, there are formidable barriers to participation. This paper examines this issue, largely through a case study of a new Can$120 million hog processing facility in Brandon, Canada. Primary data were collected in three phases, using multiple methodological techniques, including document review, qualitative interviews, and a mail questionnaire. Results included a diverse list of barriers to involvement, grouped into two primary categories: structural and individual. A significant structural barrier was a belief that becoming involved would not make a difference as the ultimate decision in the case was a foregone conclusion. An important individual barrier was that people did not know about the EA. Finally, the results indicated that lack of interest was not an important reason for nonparticipation.     

雪崩危险度评价的类型、特征和方法

在提出“积雪单元”概念的基础上,将雪崩危险度评价分为区域雪崩危险度评价和点位雪崩危险度评价。从发生学角度,论证、筛选出发生危险度评价的4个主导因素,即气候、积雪厚度、坡度和植被类型与覆盖度,并提出了明确的指标体系。详细论证了两类评价各自的特征、操作性评价程序和方法。区域雪崩危险度评价是在划分积雪单元的基础上,评定各单元的等级高低并进行制图;点位雪崩危险度评价则涉及到雪崩发生点位和可能的承灾点位,分为发生危险度评价和到达危险度评价,可根据已有的统计资料来预测其概率。     

基于3S技术的地质灾害易损性面评价研究

以等面积法作为基本手段,结合3S(GIS、RS、GPS)技术探讨地质灾害易损性面评价的实现方法。提出了为实现易损性面评估而确立的评价对象的分类方法、空间数据库的建设方法、基于空间数据库的空间分析方法以及信息的集成方法。最后探讨了在GIS环境下的数据可视化表达方式和实现地质灾害易损性面评价的一般操作流程。     

General prevention and risk minimization in LCA A combined approach

Methods for life cycle assessment of products (LCA) are most often based on the general prevention principle, as opposed to the risk minimization principle. Here, the desirability and feasibility of a combined approach are discussed, along with the conditions for elaboration in the framework of LCA methodology, and the consequences for LCA practice. A combined approach provides a separate assessment of above and below threshold pollution, offering the possibility to combat above threshold impacts with priority. Spatial differentiation in fate, exposure, and effect modelling is identified to play a central role in the implementation. The collection of region-specific data turns out to be the most elaborate requirement for the implementation in both methodology and practice. A methodological framework for the construction of characterization factors is provided. Along with spatial differentiation of existing parameters, two newly introduced spatial parameters play a key role: the sensitivity factor and the threshold factor. The practicability of the proposed procedure is illustrated by an example of its application. Providing a reasonable data availability, the development of separate LCA characterization factors for the respective assessment of pollution levels above and below environmental threshold values seems to be a feasible task that may add to LCA credibility.     

Computerized Map of Risk to Manage Wildlife Species in Urban Areas

For the last 20 years, human–wildlife conflicts have been rapidly increasing in towns. Although people want “greener” cities, the expansion of disliked species causes problems that are difficult to manage and to reduce. The complexity of the numerous factors involved in these human–wildlife relations needs the development of a comprehensive tool for urban planners. Today, with the development of computers and geographical information systems, it is easier to analyze and combine different spatial data as methods used for the management of risks in studies of natural hazards. Here we present a method for assessing and mapping the risk in cases of human–wildlife conflict. An application to starling management in a town in western France will show the efficiency of our methods to combine information given by a network of experts and to highlight higher risk sites. The map of risk provides a spatial result useful for comprehension, communication between people and agencies, and public education.     

长江三角洲及其附近地区两千年来水灾的研究

通过对长江三角洲及其附近地区两千年来水灾生成频率和强度的分析。认为两晋、南北朝时期和南宋、元、明、清时期是两千年来本区的主要水灾期。对照两千年来中国东部气候变化、海面升降与长江口河道变迁关系,认为在本区水灾生成事件中,气候因素起着主导控制作用。当然,人类活动对本区水灾生成的影响也不容忽视。本地区近百年来的旱涝灾害规律可用非线性科学的方法进行研究,旱涝灾害的准60年、准35年和准11年的长周期变化与地球自转速度、地极移动和太阳黑子活动的3个周期变化基本一致。本地区气候系统的行为具有混沌特征。这是线性逼近和周期叠加预报方法难以得出灾害预报正确结果的原因,但气候系统半个月的确定性预测可以实现。