有机过氧化物反应热的危险性预测研究

为了采用非实验的方法对安全物质学的研究内容及研究方法进行初探,基于定量结构-性质关系法,选择13种与有机过氧化物热危险性的影响因子密切相关的描述符,分别对起始分解温度T0和分解热△H的实验数据进行多元线性回归、偏最小二乘和支持向量机回归分析,从而获得3种相应的预测模型。对比T0与△H的实验值和预测值,结果发现:SVM预测模型的精度高于PLS预测模型,MLR预测模型的精度最低;同种预测模型对分解热的预测结果均优于起始分解温度。此外,分析各预测模型的稳定性数据发现:MLR模型的预测过程发生了过拟合现象,不具备预测能力;PLS模型的交互验证系数均大于0.5,具备较稳定的预测能力;SVM模型的交互验证系数均大于0.9,具备非常稳定的预测能力。     

Pharmaceutical compounds in aquatic environment in China: locally screening and environmental risk assessment

An environmental risk assessment was performed for pharmaceutical compounds present in the aquatic environment of China. Predicted environmental concentration (PEC) of the compounds were calculated according to European Medicines Evaluation Agency (EMEA) guidelines. Available ecotoxicological data compromised by applying a very conservative assessment factor (AF) were employed to calculate the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC). The screening principle and the risk assessment were based on risk quotient (RQ), which derived from the PEC and related PNEC values. PEC results indicated that all the compounds except sulfadimethoxine and levocarnitine, should carry out phase II risk assessment in EMEA guideline. RQ values suggested that more than 36 pharmaceuticals may be imposed health threats to the aquatic environment; especially the antibiotic therapeutic class including amoxicillin, sulfasalazine, trimethoprim, oxytetracycline and erythromycin showed high RQ values. These substances with high RQ value (RQ≥1) were regarded as top-priority pharmaceuticals for control in the aquatic environment of China. However, the antibiotic substances which had low risk quotient (RQ <1), should be reassessed by its potentially induced resistance under low concentration in future.     

生活垃圾填埋场细菌气溶胶分布及职业暴露风险评估

为探究生活垃圾填埋场细菌气溶胶分布以及场区员工的职业暴露风险,在西安市某垃圾填埋场的6个功能区测定和分析了细菌气溶胶浓度、粒径分布和细菌活性,并运用风险商法评估场区员工的职业暴露风险.结果表明,生活垃圾填埋场细菌气溶胶浓度最高和最低值分别为渗滤液收集区（（5381±3875）CFU·m^-3）和生活办公区（（1227±204）CFU·m^-3）,不同季节细菌气溶胶浓度变化为：夏季 > 秋季 > 冬季 > 春季.各采样点位于0.65~1.1 μm的细菌气溶胶浓度最低,小粒径细菌气溶胶比重由春季到冬季逐渐增大,各采样点细菌气溶胶的平均中值粒径均小于5.0 μm.流式细胞术分析结果显示,冬季不同采样点细菌气溶胶中活菌占比为74%~83%.细菌气溶胶职业暴露风险商均小于1,不同季节的暴露风险大小为夏季 > 秋季 > 冬季 > 春季,成年男性的职业暴露风险大于成年女性.     

Ecological risk assessment from the viewpoint of surface water pollution in Xiamen City,China

The ecological security of urban surface water is subject to significant risk due to rapid urbanization. Pollutant discharge and accumulation are among the most critical stressors endangering urban surface water and affecting the normal operation of urban aquatic ecosystem services. In this study, we assessed how pollutant accumulation stresses water purification systems, which perform important urban ecosystem services. First, we applied a water environmental capacity model to calculate thresholds of urban surface water environmental capacity under a given water quality target. Second, based on a stepwise regression method, an equation was used to describe the relationship between stressor factors (pollutant accumulation) and measurable socioeconomic indicators. Third, an ecological risk index was used as an assessment endpoint indicator to assess the negative ecological effect of pollutant accumulation. Finally, risk level was classified according to the risk quotient method. Taking Xiamen City as an example, we analyzed the contribution of different sources of pollutants and evaluated the urban ecological risk posed by two major contaminants present in the environment by measuring chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N). The results show that the ecological risk indexes of both COD and NH₄⁺-N are expected to decrease from 2020 to 2030; that of COD is expected to fall from medium to low, whereas that of NH₄⁺-N is expected to fall from high to medium. These findings demonstrate that the ecological risk posed to the surface water in Xiamen City can be reduced by controlling population growth, optimizing industrial structure, and promoting economic development.     

Mitigating flood risk and enhancing community resilience to natural disasters: plan quality matters

In response to increasingly frequent and severe flooding events, tracking the explanatory elements of integrative planning effort can provide useful assessment of initiatives that foster improved community disaster resiliency. In this research, we address the effect of local hazard mitigation plan quality on mitigating disaster risk with an emphasis on the relationship between plan quality and community resilience. Using content analysis and principles of plan quality metrics, we evaluate local hazard mitigation plans to determine how well they support disaster risk reduction. Analytically, these metrics and relevant controls were incorporated into both a log-linear two-stage least squares model and a quantile regression model to explain flood loss at the county level for the US Mississippi River Basin. Findings suggest that better plan quality and high levels of community resilience result in reducing disaster losses.     

Bridging international relations and disaster studies: the case of disaster–conflict scholarship

International relations and disaster studies have much to gain by thinking critically about their respective theoretical and epistemological assumptions. Yet, few studies to date have sought to assess the potential value of linking these two disciplines. This paper begins to address this shortfall by examining the relationship between disasters and conflict as a research sphere that intersects international relations and disaster studies. Through an analysis of whether or not disasters contribute to intra‐national and international conflict, this paper not only provides a review of the state of the art, but also serves to invite scholars to reflect on related concepts from other fields to strengthen their own approaches to the study of disasters in an international setting. An evaluation of the conceptual and theoretical contributions of each subject area provides useful heuristics for the development of disaster–conflict scholarship and encourages alternative modes of knowledge production through interdisciplinarity.     

羟基锡酸锌阻燃聚氯乙烯电缆材料及其潜在火灾危险性评价

采用氧指数、成炭率、烟密度、垂直燃烧(UL 94)、热重分析、环境扫描电镜和锥形量热的方法测试了羟基锡酸锌(ZHS)对PVC的阻燃抑烟作用。ZHS用量为15%时即可以满足对PVC电缆材料燃烧烟密度的要求,燃烧等级可以达到UL94 V0级。PVC/ZHS电缆材料的热稳定性能、成炭性能和燃烧性能表明,ZHS在PVC电缆材料燃烧时,可以促进PVC交联成炭,生成的炭具有较好的隔氧、隔热及抑制可燃性气体逸出的作用,提高了PVC电缆材料的热稳定性能,有效降低了PVC电缆材料的潜在火灾危险性。     

安全措施在定量风险评价中量化表征的研究

良好安全措施可以降低重大危险源的事故风险,而在一般的定量风险评价中较少考虑到安全措施对风险结果的影响。本文对一些重要安全措施如何体现在定量风险评价的计算结果中进行了研究。将安全措施分为降低事故频率安全技术措施、降低事故后果的安全技术措施、土地利用规划安全措施和安全管理措施四个方面来分析降低风险结果的作用。并以一个液化石油气罐区为实例应用进行对比分析,实例计算结果表明良好的安全措施能有效地降低罐区的个人风险。     

作业场所职业危害风险综合评价研究

在引入超标倍数、超标率等指标研究粉尘、毒物和噪声作业职业危害风险评价方法的基础上,综合考虑不同类型职业危害因素致病风险的差异,职业危害接触人数以及职业卫生管理情况,建立了多种类型职业危害因素并存作业场所的风险评价方法,进行了实际应用并取得良好效果,对于管理部门实施作业场所职业危害分级监管以及企业自我分级管理等都具有借鉴意义。     

高硫油炼制企业H_2S中毒风险分析

随着企业炼油规模不断扩大及原油中含硫量不断提高,炼油企业中H2S中毒事故风险迅速增大。在对高硫油炼制企业H2S的分布及危险源状况分析的基础上,指出炼油企业存在两类H2S危险源,即含有H2S的气体和含有H2S的酸性水,炼油装置产出含H2S的气体中H2S含量一般在1%～92%,酸性水中H2S含量一般在0.01%～4.0%;介绍了不同H2S浓度等级的空气可对人产生的毒性危害后果,H2S在空气中数分钟内致人死亡的浓度为1500mg/m3;对炼油企业重大酸性气泄漏事故、酸性水泄漏事故进行定量毒性危害计算和分析,给出H2S毒性危害低危区、高危区及迅速致死区达到的下风距离及覆盖的区域面积,重大酸性气、酸性水泄漏事故迅速致死浓度可达到下风距离分别为300m和89m;指出H2S中毒已成为高硫油炼制企业的重大风险,应该加强安全措施,重点防控。