作业场所职业危害统计指标筛选研究

建立科学、实用的作业场所职业危害统计指标对准确收集职业危害数据,为监管决策提供依据具有重要意义。本研究通过变异系数法、相关系数法、聚类分析、主成分分析法等数理统计学方法对5类65项待筛选统计指标进行筛选,选择次数较多的统计指标,并开展应用试点研究,最终确定入选指标。入选指标符合科学、必要和可行的原则,可用于评价各地作业场所职业危害状况。     

地震应急避险问题研究

"5·12"汶川地震造成的巨大人员伤亡,是对我国地震应急避险工作的严厉拷问,迫使我们重新审视现行的体制.从地震灾区收集了应急避险的第一手数据资料,采用数理统计的方法得出调研结论,在此基础上,对我国现有的地震应急避险措施提出了改进建议,以期进一步提高公众在地震灾害中应急避险的能力.     

模糊支持向量机在滑坡危险性评价中的应用

为了将模糊支持向量机应用于滑坡灾害危险性评价工作,并进行验证,进行了研究区滑坡现状的调查,评价指标的选取,隶属函数的确定和基于FSVM的滑坡灾害危险性评价.选取了高程指标、坡度指标、岩土体指标、地表湿度指标及植被覆盖指标等5个指标作为滑坡灾害危险性评价指标,最后以莆田市为例,结合Rs和GIS技术,进行了滑坡危险性评价的研究.评价结果与实地验证和莆田市国土局提供的地质灾害现状图基本吻合.     

Modeling flood induced interdependencies among hydroelectricity generating infrastructures

This paper presents a new kind of integrated modeling method for simulating the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure for a hazard and the subsequent interdependencies among the interconnected infrastructures. The developed method has been applied to a case study of a network of hydroelectricity generating infrastructures, e.g., water storage concrete gravity dam, penstock, power plant and transformer substation. The modeling approach is based on the fragility curves development with Monte Carlo simulation based structural–hydraulic modeling, flood frequency analysis, stochastic Petri net (SPN) modeling, and Markov Chain analysis. A certain flood level probability can be predicted from flood frequency analysis, and the most probable damage condition for this hazard can be simulated from the developed fragility curves of the dam. Consequently, the resulting interactions among the adjacent infrastructures can be quantified with SPN analysis; corresponding Markov Chain analysis simulates the long term probability matrix of infrastructure failures. The obtained results are quite convincing to prove the novel contribution of this research to the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis which might serve as a decision making tool for flood related emergency response and management.     

Sediment Quality Assessment in the Gulf of Gdańsk (Baltic Sea) Using Complementary Lines of Evidence

Sediments from Polish coastal environments were classified by a quality assessment approach that took into account trace metal and organic micropollutant concentrations, grain-size distribution, and organic carbon content. Generally, no benthic organisms were found at sites where sediments were classified as heavily polluted. However, areas characterized by a moderate contamination showed a variable composition of the benthic community and changing bioaccumulation patterns; therefore, no single species found in the Gulf of Gdańsk could be considered representative of the whole benthic environment. Although sediment monitoring must be considered a suitable tool to detect hot-spot pollution areas in coastal and inland waters, it should be complemented by bioaccumulation measurements to evaluate the actual risk posed by contaminants to benthic organisms. This “biological information” allows a better appreciation of the real benthic infaunal community exposure to chemicals and can usefully complement the existing sediment quality guidelines.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

浅议人的意识与事故发生规律的关系

从人的意识和个人因素事故致因模型出发,探讨了潜在危险存在的情况下,人的意识活动过程和个人因素与事故发生之间的联系;分析了不同的意识状态下,个人因素对于潜在危险的感知认识的作用和影响以及由此而决定的工作行为的安全程度,以及相应的预防对策.     

GIS在云南鲁甸县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用

鲁甸县地质灾害类型众多,主要有滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、地裂缝等。通过量化地质灾害形成的指标,建立属性数据库,采用地理信息系统进行空间分析,以量化数据为依据,制作鲁甸县地质灾害易发性分区图。     

Tidal salt marsh sediment in California, USA: part 3. Current and historic toxicity potential of contaminants and their bioaccumulation

To assess potential health risks to benthic organisms from exposure to toxic contaminants, sediment chemistry data from five salt marshes along the coast of California were compared with threshold effects levels (TELs) and probable effects levels (PELs). As an integrated estimate of toxicity potential of multiple contaminants, mean PEL quotients (mPELQs) were used to categorize sampling stations into three groups: high (>0.5), medium (0.1–0.5) and low (<0.1). In all sediments from Stege Marsh located in San Francisco Bay, at least one contaminant exceeded PELs by up to 18-fold and mPELQs were higher than 0.7. Mean PELQs in two core sediments from eastern Stege Marsh ranged from 0.7 to 2.1, indicating that benthic organisms in Stege Marsh may have been adversely affected for several decades. To investigate bioavailability and bioaccumulation of contaminants in sediments, longjaw mudsuckers (Gillichthys mirabilis) were transplanted to six Stege Marsh stations for 60 days. Body burdens of organic contaminants clearly showed that they were readily available for benthic organisms. Measured concentrations of organic contaminants in mudsuckers were similar to estimated levels computed using a theoretical bioaccumulation potential model. Levels of PCBs and arsenic in mudsuckers were higher than screening values set as guidelines for the protection of humans and levels of PCBs and DDTs were higher than criteria for wildlife. The results of this study indicate that the levels of contaminants in Stege Marsh sediments may not fully support the well-being of benthic organisms and also may provoke adverse effects on fish-eating animals and humans through trophic transfer.     

化工危险源环境安全监测和应急响应系统的研发与应用

通过分析化工危险源环境污染的危害性,提出了将工业无线传感器网络技术、视频监控技术和自动控制、无线通讯、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库及网络工程等计算机技术应用于化工危险源的监测和监控,建立一个化工危险源的环境安全监测和应急响应系统的必要性。概述了系统的需求分析和架构,详细介绍了系统的组成、功能和关键技术,探讨了如何将该系统应用于泰州某化工公司危险源的环境监控和应急管理。