化工危险源环境安全监测和应急响应系统的研发与应用

通过分析化工危险源环境污染的危害性,提出了将工业无线传感器网络技术、视频监控技术和自动控制、无线通讯、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库及网络工程等计算机技术应用于化工危险源的监测和监控,建立一个化工危险源的环境安全监测和应急响应系统的必要性。概述了系统的需求分析和架构,详细介绍了系统的组成、功能和关键技术,探讨了如何将该系统应用于泰州某化工公司危险源的环境监控和应急管理。     

火灾风险评估相关概念辨析

对易于混淆的火灾风险评估相关概念进行辨析,界定一些概念的内涵和外延。根据防灭火涉及的不同因素,提出了火灾风险源、狭义火灾风险和广义火灾风险的概念。从3个层次上对火灾危险、火灾危险性和火灾风险进行阐释。分析结果表明,有关概念外形和语义上的相似性,不利于火灾风险评估的推广与普及,现行术语需要及时进行修订和统一;在危险源概念从理论向实践传播存在困难的情况下,采用由实践需要向理论提升而创新的风险源概念,有利于扩大火灾风险评估的适用性;从3个层次对火灾危险、火灾危险性和火灾风险进行界定,可促进对火灾风险评估的理解;狭义火灾风险与广义火灾风险概念的提出,可以为根据火灾风险评估的目标对象所处的不同阶段,选择使用不同的评估方法提供有益的参考。     

重大危险源分级方法探讨

提出以事故后果分析为基础,结合死亡概率模型,以事故可能造成的人员死亡数量为标准进行重大危险源分级的方法。对相关的危险化学品事故后果计算模型、死亡概率计算方法、重大危险源死亡人数计算方法以及重大危险源等级划分等进行了分析和研讨。该重大危险源分级法的应用实例表明,用其评价的重大危险源风险更加符合实际情况,具有更好的科学性。该研究成果对制定我国重大危险源分级标准具有重要意义。     

Tidal salt marsh sediment in California, USA: part 3. Current and historic toxicity potential of contaminants and their bioaccumulation

To assess potential health risks to benthic organisms from exposure to toxic contaminants, sediment chemistry data from five salt marshes along the coast of California were compared with threshold effects levels (TELs) and probable effects levels (PELs). As an integrated estimate of toxicity potential of multiple contaminants, mean PEL quotients (mPELQs) were used to categorize sampling stations into three groups: high (>0.5), medium (0.1–0.5) and low (<0.1). In all sediments from Stege Marsh located in San Francisco Bay, at least one contaminant exceeded PELs by up to 18-fold and mPELQs were higher than 0.7. Mean PELQs in two core sediments from eastern Stege Marsh ranged from 0.7 to 2.1, indicating that benthic organisms in Stege Marsh may have been adversely affected for several decades. To investigate bioavailability and bioaccumulation of contaminants in sediments, longjaw mudsuckers (Gillichthys mirabilis) were transplanted to six Stege Marsh stations for 60 days. Body burdens of organic contaminants clearly showed that they were readily available for benthic organisms. Measured concentrations of organic contaminants in mudsuckers were similar to estimated levels computed using a theoretical bioaccumulation potential model. Levels of PCBs and arsenic in mudsuckers were higher than screening values set as guidelines for the protection of humans and levels of PCBs and DDTs were higher than criteria for wildlife. The results of this study indicate that the levels of contaminants in Stege Marsh sediments may not fully support the well-being of benthic organisms and also may provoke adverse effects on fish-eating animals and humans through trophic transfer.     

Sediment Quality Assessment in the Gulf of Gdańsk (Baltic Sea) Using Complementary Lines of Evidence

Sediments from Polish coastal environments were classified by a quality assessment approach that took into account trace metal and organic micropollutant concentrations, grain-size distribution, and organic carbon content. Generally, no benthic organisms were found at sites where sediments were classified as heavily polluted. However, areas characterized by a moderate contamination showed a variable composition of the benthic community and changing bioaccumulation patterns; therefore, no single species found in the Gulf of Gdańsk could be considered representative of the whole benthic environment. Although sediment monitoring must be considered a suitable tool to detect hot-spot pollution areas in coastal and inland waters, it should be complemented by bioaccumulation measurements to evaluate the actual risk posed by contaminants to benthic organisms. This “biological information” allows a better appreciation of the real benthic infaunal community exposure to chemicals and can usefully complement the existing sediment quality guidelines.     

Modeling flood induced interdependencies among hydroelectricity generating infrastructures

This paper presents a new kind of integrated modeling method for simulating the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure for a hazard and the subsequent interdependencies among the interconnected infrastructures. The developed method has been applied to a case study of a network of hydroelectricity generating infrastructures, e.g., water storage concrete gravity dam, penstock, power plant and transformer substation. The modeling approach is based on the fragility curves development with Monte Carlo simulation based structural–hydraulic modeling, flood frequency analysis, stochastic Petri net (SPN) modeling, and Markov Chain analysis. A certain flood level probability can be predicted from flood frequency analysis, and the most probable damage condition for this hazard can be simulated from the developed fragility curves of the dam. Consequently, the resulting interactions among the adjacent infrastructures can be quantified with SPN analysis; corresponding Markov Chain analysis simulates the long term probability matrix of infrastructure failures. The obtained results are quite convincing to prove the novel contribution of this research to the field of infrastructure interdependency analysis which might serve as a decision making tool for flood related emergency response and management.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

Investigation of an accidental explosion due to unintended mixing involving reactive chemicals at a waste storage tank

An accidental explosion occurred in a waste storage tank at an incineration plant in Kawasaki, Japan, on May 11, 1997. The accident was caused primarily by unintended mixing involving reactive chemicals, such as organic peroxides (POs) and acrylonitrile (AN). The PO initiated polymerization of AN and the heat released during the polymerization led to a runaway reaction and explosion. POs are widely used in the chemical industry and can be self-reactive and hazardous when mixed with other chemicals such as acids and alkalis. The goal of this study was to obtain a better understanding of the mixing hazard of chemicals through an evaluation of POs with other chemicals using conventional experimental techniques such as glass test-tube tests, Dewar vessel tests, and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Seven types of POs were mixed with AN. Test results were classified into four ranks based on the hazard criteria. In addition, di(2-ethylhexyl)-peroxydicarbonate/AN mixtures were investigated in detail and the influences of the mixing ratio and the stirring rate were examined.     

GIS在云南鲁甸县地质灾害易发性分区中的应用

鲁甸县地质灾害类型众多,主要有滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、地裂缝等。通过量化地质灾害形成的指标,建立属性数据库,采用地理信息系统进行空间分析,以量化数据为依据,制作鲁甸县地质灾害易发性分区图。     

地震应急避险问题研究

"5·12"汶川地震造成的巨大人员伤亡,是对我国地震应急避险工作的严厉拷问,迫使我们重新审视现行的体制.从地震灾区收集了应急避险的第一手数据资料,采用数理统计的方法得出调研结论,在此基础上,对我国现有的地震应急避险措施提出了改进建议,以期进一步提高公众在地震灾害中应急避险的能力.