Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

常压下煤对N2/CO2/CH4单组分气体吸附特性研究

为了研究常压不同条件下煤样对N2/CO2/CH4单组分气体的吸附特性,以Langumir单分子层吸附模型为依据,对其吸附阶段进行划分,选择长焰煤、气肥煤和无烟煤分别进行了单组分气体吸附试验,探讨不同试验条件对煤吸附量的影响。结果表明:在常压阶段,煤对单组分气体的吸附规律服从Langumir单分子层吸附模型的第一阶段,吸附量与压力正相关;煤的变质程度、吸附温度及压力和吸附气体的种类是影响吸附量的主要因素,并在不同情况下对煤吸附量的影响程度不同;高低变质煤样对吸附量的影响大,而中等变质程度的影响小;温度是低压阶段影响吸附量的主要因素;吸附气体种类对吸附量的影响是由于其自身物化性质差异,相同试验条件下煤对3种单组分气体的吸附量从大到小为CO2、CH4、N2。     

双甘膦废水处理技术研究

双甘膦废水中含有高浓度总磷、有机磷、甲醛、氰化物、氨氮、COD,运用三效蒸发＋强氧化＋两级化学除磷＋UASB＋兼氧＋好氧组合处理双甘膦废水。研究结果表明双甘膦废水排放满足《污水综合排放标准》（G88978—1996）二级排放标准。     

铅元素人为循环环境释放物形态分析

环境中铅污染物来自于物质人为循环的环境释放,铅释放物的形态差异意味着其在环境介质中迁移和转化的起始状态不同.确定铅元素人为循环环境释放物的形态,可以为环境风险评估和源头管理提供科学依据.本研究通过追踪铅元素人为循环流动过程,应用物理化学分析方法,辨识生命周期各阶段环境释放物中铅元素的形态,并以2010年为例,定量分析中国铅元素人为循环中环境释放物的形态分布特征.结果表明,2010年中国铅人为循环中环境释放物主要形态表现为PbSO4,约占总量的23.4%;其次是PbO、Pb和PbCO3,共占总释放量的46.2%.国内每消费1 kt精铅,将向环境释放547.9 t的铅,这些环境释放物中73.3%来源于产品使用阶段和废物处置与回收阶段;从形态看,PbSO4占释放物的量为128.2 t,主要来源于生产阶段和废物处置与回收阶段,PbO、Pb和PbCO3则分别主要来源于废物处置与回收、产品使用和生产几个阶段.     

做好环境监测站计量认证的准备工作

根据计量认证的内容重点叙述了进行此工作的各项准备，收集资料，建立仪器设备档案，整顿实验室环境、人员培训考核，质量管理手册的编写等，使各基层环境监测站能顺利通过计量认证。     

Study on the early stage of runaway reaction using Dewar vessels

In this paper, compared with a UN cylindrical 500 mL Dewar (H.4 in the UN tests), a spherical 1 L Dewar vessel was used to study the early stages of runaway reactions of several liquid and solid samples, including three organic peroxides and a reactive material. The samples were filled in the vessels and the temperature profiles versus times at different positions of the samples were measured. As a result, the minimum temperatures, defined as the SADT, were averagely 10 K lower than those measured in the cylindrical Dewar vessels. At the same time, the temperature profiles of solids in the spherical Dewars tended to be homogeneous. The heat transfer coefficient of a spherical Dewar is only 0.18 W/K/m, one-eighth of a conventional cylindrical Dewar vessel. Meanwhile it has a low phi factor. These factors are essential to simulate low heat loss bulk conditions in the equilibrium process and at the early stage of a runaway reaction. To characterize the ability of the adiabaticity of a storage vessel, it can be seen that a spherical Dewar could simulate the plant process having critical storage size of a reactive-material, r₀, approximately 0.6 m. It is recommended that such a technique is used to investigate the SADT of an unstable material in larger scale packaging or a material with very weak heat release in industry.     

四川色达县切都柯沟“7.8”泥石流灾害特征及危险性分析

2004年7月8日四川色达县歌乐沱乡切都柯沟发生了中等规模泥石流,最大流速10.4m/s,洪峰流量156m3/s,冲出方量约7×104m3,造成了一定的财产损失。泥石流稠度大,冲击力强,具有明显的直进性特征,为粘性泥石流。切都柯沟泥石流发育阶段为壮年(偏幼)期。切都柯沟为中度危险的泥石流沟,该沟一次泥石流最大堆积危险范围39902m2,最大堆积长度284m,最大堆积厚度4.32m。提出了相应的防治措施:一是在滑坡崩塌处进行加固,采取沟岸护坡等措施;二是在沟谷上游修建谷坊、拦挡坝,以降低流速,削减泥石流能量和规模。     

湖鲟(Acipenser fulvescens)早期生命阶段对2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并-p-二恶英和3,3'4,4'5-五氯联苯的敏感性研究

自20世纪中叶以来,五大湖区的水生食物网就已受到多氯联苯化合物(PCBs)的污染。对于长寿命鱼类,如湖鲟(Acipenser fulvescens),由于缺乏该物种的相对敏感性信息,一直无法确定其PCB暴露的风险。本文的研究目标就是评估湖鲟早期生命阶段对3,3''4,4''5-五氯联苯(PCB-126)或2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并-p-二恶英(TCDD)暴露的敏感性。死亡率、生长、形态和组织病理学、游泳能力和活动水平都被用作评估终点。心包和卵黄囊水肿、管状心脏、卵黄囊出血和体长较小是TCDD和PCB-126暴露中最常见的病理症状,早在受精4 d后就开始出现,其中许多的病理都以一种剂量依赖的方式发生。湖鲟体内PCB-126和TCDD的半致死剂量分别为5.4 ng/g egg(95%置信区间,3.9-7.4 ng/g egg)和0.61 ng/g egg (0.47-0.82 ng/g egg)。由此产生的PCB-126的相对强度因子(0.11)远大于世界卫生组织对鱼的估计值(毒性当量因子=0.005),这表明目前的风险评估可能低估了PCB对湖鲟的毒性。在受精60 d后,从半致死剂量中幸存的湖鲟的游泳活性和耐力均有所下降。阈值和半数效应毒性值表明,与在北美发现的另一种鲟鱼属Scaphirhynchu相比,湖鲟对PCB和TCDD更为敏感。事实上,在大湖区和其他地方的湖鲟种群都容易受到PCB/ TCDD诱导,使胚胎发育受到影响,游泳能力下降。
精选自Tillitt, D. E., Buckler, J. A., Nicks, D. K., Candrl, J. S., Claunch, R. A., Gale, R. W., Puglis, H. J., Little, E. E., Linbo, T. L. and Baker, M. (2017), Sensitivity of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) early life stages to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-P-dioxin and 3,3′,4,4′,5-pentachlorobiphenyl. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 988–998. doi: 10.1002/etc.3614
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3614/full
     

长江（万州段）水体溶解性有机物的荧光光谱分析

按照河床形态、水文条件、排污口分布、支流状况等特点从长江万州段及长江支流苎溪河选取8个断面进行采样,对水样中溶解性有机物（DOM）的荧光光谱特征进行了分析和研究。利用日立F 4500荧光分光光度计对长江水、普通自来水和纯水在紫外光激励下产生的荧光光谱及其特性进行了比较研究。同时,研究了不同水样、不同取样点的水体DOM的荧光特性和三维荧光光谱图。结果表明：长江水在波长290 nm左右的紫外光激励下能产生较强的荧光。荧光峰是350~550 nm 范围的宽谱峰,荧光峰值波长在450 nm左右。但是不同取样点水样的荧光峰强度明显有差异,在4号、5号、2号取样点的水样荧光强度明显高于其他取样点,这与采样点附近污染源排放有明显的关系。该研究方法可作为鉴别水质污染的一种有效的手段.     

建筑火灾增长阶段室内温度的时间特性研究

为研究建筑火灾增长阶段室内温度的时间变化规律,提出了高温烟气的主要几种热损失的计算方法,发展了受火室与未受火室及环境的热平衡方程,并采用牛顿-拉菲尔森法迭代得到受火室的温度变化.计算了慢速、中速、快速、超快速四种火灾增长速率下,受火室气相温度及烟气热损失随时间的变化.本文的研究方法及有关结果可以为建筑防火及安全疏散提供有力依据.