Identifying Anomalous Reports of Putatively Extinct Species and Why It Matters

Abstract:  As species become very rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can stir controversy, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We used quantitative methods to identify reports that do not fit prior sighting patterns. We also examined the effects of including records that meet different evidentiary standards on quantitative extinction assessments for four charismatic bird species that might be extinct: Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ), Ivory-billed Woodpecker ( Campephilus principalis ), Nukupu`u ( Hemignathus lucidus ), and O`ahu `Alauahio ( Paroreomyza maculata ). For all four species the probability of there being a valid sighting today, given the past pattern of verified sightings, was estimated to be very low. The estimates of extinction dates and the chance of new sightings, however, differed considerably depending on the criteria used for data inclusion. When a historical sighting record lacked long periods without sightings, the likelihood of new sightings declined quickly with time since the last confirmed sighting. For species with this type of historical record, therefore, new reports should meet an especially high burden of proof to be acceptable. Such quantitative models could be incorporated into the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List criteria to set evidentiary standards required for unconfirmed sightings of "possibly extinct" species and to standardize extinction assessments across species.     

First evidence of poisonous shrews with an envenomation apparatus

Herein, we report evidence of an envenomation apparatus (EA) in two different species of extinct “giant” shrews, Beremendia and an indeterminate soricine (Mammalia, Eulipotyphla, Soricidae), documented by very well preserved fossil specimens recovered from two Early Pleistocene cave deposits of the Sierra de Atapuerca in Burgos, Spain. The two soricine taxa from Atapuerca have evolved specialized teeth as EAs, which differ from those of recently reported mammals of the Paleocene age, being more similar to the ones described in the modern Solenodon. This discovery reveals the first instance of shrews possessing what appears to be an EA, an evolutionary adaptation that, in these species, was probably related to an increase in body mass and hunting of a larger-sized prey. The Atapuerca specimens would have a highly specialized EA, one of the very few reported for an extinct or living mammal of any time. In addition to the presence of a gutter-like groove along the medial side of the crown of the lower incisors, these two species also present stout jaws and a modified mandibular symphysis with a conspicuous cavity, which in life would likely contain large amounts of connective tissue. The strong mandible architecture of these large shrews would be, in this way, reinforced by a more immovable symphysis, increasing the bite force exerted over a potential prey. This adaptation, together with the grooved incisors, would ensure a rapid and efficient transmission of the poisonous saliva to paralyze relatively large-sized prey.     

Identifying Sighting Clusters of Endangered Taxa with Historical Records

Abstract: The probability and time of extinction of taxa is often inferred from statistical analyses of historical records. Many of these analyses require the exclusion of multiple records within a unit of time (i.e., a month or a year). Nevertheless, spatially explicit, temporally aggregated data may be useful for identifying clusters of sightings (i.e., sighting clusters) in space and time. Identification of sighting clusters highlights changes in the historical recording of endangered taxa. I used two methods to identify sighting clusters in historical records: the Ederer–Myers–Mantel (EMM) test and the space–time permutation scan (STPS). I applied these methods to the spatially explicit sighting records of three species of orchids that are listed as endangered in the Republic of Ireland under the Wildlife Act (1976): Cephalanthera longifolia, Hammarbya paludosa, and Pseudorchis albida. Results with the EMM test were strongly affected by the choice of the time interval, and thus the number of temporal samples, used to examine the records. For example, sightings of P. albida clustered when the records were partitioned into 20‐year temporal samples, but not when they were partitioned into 22‐year temporal samples. Because the statistical power of EMM was low, it will not be useful when data are sparse. Nevertheless, the STPS identified regions that contained sighting clusters because it uses a flexible scanning window (defined by cylinders of varying size that move over the study area and evaluate the likelihood of clustering) to detect them, and it identified regions with high and regions with low rates of orchid sightings. The STPS analyses can be used to detect sighting clusters of endangered species that may be related to regions of extirpation and may assist in the categorization of threat status.     

Historical Evidence of Widespread Chytrid Infection in North American Amphibian Populations

Abstract:  Emerging infectious diseases may be contributing to the global decline of amphibian populations. In particular, chytridiomycosis, a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians caused by the chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , gained attention in the 1990s as an apparently new pathogen. This fungus has been implicated as the causative agent of widespread mortalities among wild amphibians in geographically disparate parts of the world. To investigate the global distribution, historical occurrence, and infectiousness of this pathogen, we examined 3371 postmetamorphic and adult amphibians collected between 1895 and 2001 from 25 countries for the presence of chytrid fungi in the epidermis. Cutaneous chytrid infection was diagnosed in 383 of 2931 (13.1%) specimens of 12 common amphibian species from five Canadian provinces and seven American states, including 30 of 69 locations examined in the St. Lawrence River Valley of Québec. Chytrids were observed in 7.0% (46/655) of the adults collected in the 1960s, the earliest cases being two green frogs (  Rana clamitans ) collected in 1961 from Saint-Pierre-de-Wakefield, Québec. In recent studies, morbidity and mortality attributable to chytridiomycosis were not observed in infected amphibians from Québec despite a 17.8% (302/1698) prevalence of chytrid infection during the period 1990–2001. The prevalence of infection during this latter period was not statistically different when compared with the period 1960–1969. Epidermal chytrid infections were not observed in 440 amphibians examined from 23 other countries. In light of the fact that infection by B. dendrobatidis is widely distributed and apparently enzootic in seemingly healthy amphibians from eastern North America, lethal outbreaks of chytridiomycosis among amphibian populations appear to have complex causes and may be the result of underlying predisposing factors.     

构造煤承压过程瓦斯渗透特性实验研究

构造煤具有瓦斯含量高、渗透率低等特征,是瓦斯抽采和灾害预防的难点。在采用“二次成型”法制取原煤样试件的基础上使用自行设计的“三轴应力瓦斯渗透性模拟实验装置”通过“应力-渗透性”实验,针对构造煤原煤试件不同瓦斯压力条件下的应力加、卸载过程的瓦斯渗透规律进行了研究。实验结果表明:加载阶段,随着加载应力的增大渗透率降低,初期阶段降幅最为急剧,围压升到3 MPa时,渗透率均下降近65%;卸载阶段渗透率随着应力的减小而增大,围压完全卸载后渗透率只恢复到初始值的25%;同样的应力条件下,煤基质收缩对构造煤的影响作用大于有效应力的增加,渗透率随着其内部瓦斯压力的降低而增大。实验结果可为构造煤“卸压增透”效果最佳化提供参考,进一步完善低渗透率煤层的瓦斯抽采理论及方法体系。     

成组法疲劳试件个数选取方法研究

目的 在成组法疲劳试验过程中,确定最少疲劳试件个数判据,获取有效可靠的疲劳试验结果。方法基于疲劳可靠性的基本原理,在疲劳寿命对数正态分布的假设下,根据t分布理论,结合船舶及海洋工程一般构件具有95%置信度和可靠度p=97.72%下的P-S-N曲线的基本要求,推算出相应置信度和可靠度下5%误差限度内的疲劳试件个数与允许的最大变异系数数值的对应关系,以此作为成组法疲劳试验最少试件个数的判据,开展典型节点的疲劳试验。结果 得到了具有95%置信度的百位估计值Np,并通过线性相关系数r,判断对数疲劳应力Y=lg S与X=lg Np之间线性相关的程度,采用最小二乘法对对数疲劳寿命lg Np和对数疲劳应力lg S进行线性拟合,得到了具有95%置信度的P-S-N曲线,与IIW规范中相应的曲线一致。结论 文中给出的成组法疲劳试验个数确定方法是合理、可靠的,为船舶与海洋工程结构物典型焊接接头成组法疲劳试验个数的确定提供了依据。