Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

Reproductive Success of Captive-Bred Steelhead Trout in the Wild: Evaluation of Three Hatchery Programs in the Hood River

Abstract:  Population supplementation programs that release captive-bred offspring into the wild to boost the size of endangered populations are now in place for many species. The use of hatcheries for supplementing salmonid populations has become particularly popular. Nevertheless, whether such programs actually increase the size of wild populations remains unclear, and predictions that supplementation fish drag down the fitness of wild fish remain untested. To address these issues, we performed DNA-based parentage analyses on almost complete samples of anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Hood River in Oregon (U.S.A.). Steelhead from a supplementation hatchery (reared in a supplementation hatchery and then allowed to spawn naturally in the wild) had reproductive success indistinguishable from that of wild fish. In contrast, fish from a traditional hatchery (nonlocal origin, multiple generations in hatcheries) breeding in the same river showed significantly lower fitness than wild fish. In addition, crosses between wild fish and supplementation fish were as reproductively successful as those between wild parents. Thus, there was no sign that supplementation fish drag down the fitness of wild fish by breeding with them for a single generation. On the other hand, crosses between hatchery fish of either type (traditional or supplementation) were less fit than expected, suggesting a possible interaction effect. These are the first data to show that a supplementation program with native brood stock can provide a single-generation boost to the size of a natural steelhead population without obvious short-term fitness costs. The long-term effects of population supplementation remain untested.     

Medium Scale Spatial Structures of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Topsoil of Tianjin Area

The spatial distribution patterns of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil are important to regional environmental assessment. In this paper, the spatial structural features of sixteen prior PAH compounds in the topsoil of Tianjin area, as well as soil properties, were studied. Results shown that medium scale spatial autocorrelations were well revealed. Spherical models with sills could be used to fit all experimental variograms. The spatial structures of PAHs contents demonstrated significant anisotropy. Air precipitation caused by the combustion of coal was the key factor in the formation of the spatial structural patterns of PAHs in the topsoil of Tianjin area.     

亚超临界水技术在废旧尼龙6解聚中的应用

研究了尼龙6在亚超临界水中的解聚反应,以期为废旧尼龙6的回收利用提供技术参数.实验分别利用气质联用仪和紫外分光光度计对解聚后的液相产物进行定性和定量分析,并考察了不同的反应温度、反应压力和反应时间对液相产物收率的影响.结果表明,液相产物绝大部分为己内酰胺;解聚的最佳条件为370 ℃、25 MPa、60 min;己内酰胺最大收率为96%.通过动力学分析和Arrhenius关系计算,得出尼龙6亚超临界水解聚的活化能为64.4 kJ/mol.     

微生物絮凝剂PF-2的成分分析及絮凝机制研究

筛选得到的荧光假单胞菌(Pseudomonas fluorescens)产生的絮凝剂——PF-2在处理高岭土悬浊液时,具有用量少、絮凝效果好等优点,对高岭土悬浊液的絮凝率可达96.5%.呈色反应和紫外扫描的测定结果表明,PF-2大部分为胞外分泌的多糖,含有少量的核酸,提取后每升发酵液可制得絮凝剂粗品2.3 g;ζ电位测定及氢键和离子键检验结果表明,PF-2与高岭土颗粒之间的作用力为离子键;红外光谱扫描分析PF-2中含有O-H、C-H、C＝C和C-O-C等多糖的特征吸收峰;利用扫描电镜观察絮体形态表明,絮体结构密实,其絮凝机制为PF-2和高岭土以离子键的形式结合,之后通过架桥作用絮凝沉淀.     

Space-time analysis of the changing patterns of population pressure on the ecological environment in China

This paper examines the temporal change and spatial variation of population pressure on the ecological environment in China. We have collected sufficient data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative areas in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. Using a geographic information system (GIS) and relevant models, we analyzed the trend of the population pressure on ecological environment and the change of the gravity center of ecological environment quality. We conclude that: (1) generally, population pressure on the ecological environment in China was becoming higher during 1990–2010, especially in some areas where the population and environment were in serious imbalance and the ecological environment experienced severe pollution; (2) during a certain period, population pressure on the ecological environment was becoming lower in some areas, but the ecological environment was getting worse; (3) the areas with super-high population pressure on the ecological environment were Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai; (4) the gravity center of population pressure on the ecological environment and the center of ecological environment quality move differently during the study time period, but the general trend was similar – both of them were moving from west to east. Based on the analysis, this paper also provides some policy suggestions on the control of ecological environment quality.     

整合消费与增加值视角的中国行业碳排放变动分解研究

在研究影响我国CO 2排放因素领域,基于投入产出技术的分解模型已成为主要的分析工具,现有研究多分别基于消费视角或收益视角展开分析。为全面评估各行业收益与消费对其上游、下游行业碳排放的综合影响,整合基于收益与基于消费两个视角,运用2012年与2015年我国投入产出表,构建两层嵌套式结构分解分析模型(SDA),比较分析消费规模效应、收益规模效应、行业流入、流出增加值变动效应、增加值结构变动效应等14个影响各行业碳排放变动的关键因素,并借助对消费者原则碳排放估算公式的重构,更准确地实现从增加值视角对各行业消费者原则碳排放变动的关键影响因素分析。研究发现:①研究期内,我国在总产出增长29.14%的同时碳排放量上升1.46%,各行业碳排放强度下降是主要的减排因素,其中建筑业减排贡献最大。②增排效应方面,影响从大到小依次为消费规模、收益规模、完全投入结构与完全消费结构四项效应,且前两个规模效应的影响是后两个结构效应的2倍以上,尤其建筑业消费规模效应、煤炭采选产品业收益规模效应增排较大。③消费规模扩大导致增排的原因并非行业本身生产规模扩大,而主要在于建筑业、服务业等行业规模扩张时吸收其他行业流入的增加值量增多。④收益规模扩大导致的增排效应方面,细分来说从大到小依次为劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余四项效应,且行业差异显著,如煤炭采选产品业的劳动者报酬效应,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品业的生产税净额效应以及电力、热力生产和供应业的营业盈余效应增排贡献较大,而煤炭采选产品业的营业盈余效应、批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业的生产税净额效应则减排贡献较大。     

印染废水集中处理工程的实例分析

针对印染企业集中园区产生的综合废水复杂多变,必要选择合式的处理工艺,因此,以某印染企业集中园区的污水处理厂为例,采用厌氧＋好氧＋物化组合工艺,并对废水的脱色和可生化性的改善进行了试验研究,通过类比调查,优化工程设计参数;经工程实践证明,综合印染废水经该工艺处理后,能达到一级排放标准.     

采用网络共享的Excel技术编制环境监测分析报告

简述了环境监测部门在编制环境监测分析报告时遇到的问题，介绍采用网络共享的Excel技术来编制环境监测分析报告的方法，并与传统报告编制方法进行了比较，体现出运用现代技术的优越性，同时分析了该方法编制报告时易产生的问题，提出了解决办法。     

Endpoint ‘floating leaves’ of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Potamogeton natans</Emphasis>: A new method to evaluate the development of macrophytes in pond mesocosms

Goal, Scope and Background One of the advantages of long-term mesocosm experiments as compared to short-term standard toxicity tests in the laboratory is the potential for detecting secondary effects due to the interaction of species and recovery with biomass of macrophytes being an important endpoint. However, generating biomass data by harvesting is often laborious, time-consuming, costly and restricted to the end of the experiment. Moreover, valuable information may get lost, in particular in single application studies, since maximal primary effects and secondary effects or recovery occur per se at different times. Potamogeton natans was used as an example in order to test whether number and area of floating leaves can be reliably measured and be used as intermediate and final endpoints in mesocosm effect studies. Methods Digital photos, which were taken of the water surface in the course of an indoor pond mesocosm study on herbicide effects, were subjected to image analysis. The results were compared to wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton at the end of the herbicide study. Results and Discussion Both number and area of floating leaves indicated the same herbicide effects as wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton. Error introduced by the different work steps is small and can be further minimised by a number of method improvements. Recommendations and Perspectives In indoor mesocosm studies, errors due to the perspective adjustment may be circumvented by taking the photos perpendicular to the water surface. Correction for lens aberration, identical light conditions and the use of fluorescence images are considered promising. Field applications are proposed.