基于共词分析的城市生活垃圾治理公共政策变迁量化分析

以1979—2020年我国中央政府颁发的411份城市生活垃圾治理政策文本作为研究对象,运用共词与聚类分析方法研究了我国不同时期城市生活垃圾治理公共政策焦点的演变规律。结果发现:纵观我国城市生活垃圾治理公共政策焦点的演变轨迹,在"技术路线"、"垃圾属性"、"管理手段"、"治理结构"和"保障机制"方面发生了显著的政策主题变迁,呈现出垃圾治理朝更加绿色、更加经济方向发展的趋势。未来,应从监管体系、资源评估、财政补贴、空间布局4个方面保障生活垃圾零污染、高价值资源化治理。     

Use of Landsat Thematic Mapper Data to Assess Seasonal Rangeland Changes in the Southeast Kalahari, Botswana

/ Management problems arise in semiarid rangeland that are characterized by marked wet and dry seasons because of forage deficiencies in the dry season. These natural vegetation rangelands can sustain livestock all year long when forage and senesced grass are available into the dry season. Seasonal range condition data are required to provide a basis for pasture management to help locate dry season cover and thereby minimize overstocking and degradation. The generation of seasonal data using Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery was undertaken to assess changes in natural vegetation cover in the southern Botswana Kalahari. Visual analysis of spectral reflectance curves, the development of spectral separability indexes, and conventional classification analysis techniques were used to identify and differentiate rangeland features. Results from reflectance curves indicated that most rangeland cover types could be preferentially distinguished using mainly wet season data, especially on the longer TM wavebands, and that range feature differentiation was more problematic on darker soils than on lighter soils. Spectral separability indexes (SSIs) confirmed that range feature separation varied considerably as a function of waveband and was more effective in the wet than the dry season. The SSIs also showed that range feature differentiation in both seasons was most effective using a combination of the chlorophyll absorpance band (TM3) and two mid-infrared bands (TM5 and TM7). Wet season data were more effectively classified in terms of range features than dry season data although some class similarity was inferred across the two classified data sets. The work shows that overall trends may be generated by comparing seasonal data sets, thereby providing an overall basis for dry season decision making. However, particular problems arise within the dry season data sets probably because of spectral similarities between shadow and darkened vegetation cover, thereby implying that further work is needed. KEY WORDS: Semiarid rangelands; Botswana; Kalahari; Spectral differentiation; Seasonal change; Darkened vegetation cover     

A CALIBRATION PROCEDURE USING TOPMODEL TO DETERMINE SUITABILITY FOR EVALUATING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

RESPONSE OF NORTH AMERICAN FRESHWATER LAKES TO SIMULATED FUTURE CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO₂ doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30°C over the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.     

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES FOR WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.     

GREAT LAKES WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT GCM SCENARIOS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady-state 2°CO₂ and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses.     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

The relevance of James Lovelock’s research and philosophy to environmental science and academia

James E. Lovelock, famed for his Gaia hypothesis, which views the Earth as a living integrated and interconnected self-regulating system whose equilibrium comes about from complex energy-based interactions and feedback loops, ultimately sustaining life, passed away at the end of July, 2022 at the age of 103. Not only are the adaptive mechanisms of Gaia central to the conversation of environmental homeostasis, they lie at the heart of climate change and global warming. Lovelock is also remembered as the co-inventor of the electron capture detector that eventually allowed for the sensitive detection of chlorofluorocarbons and pesticides. Finally, Lovelock’s free-spirited nature and research independence allow academia to rethink current research’s modus operandi.