皖07井水位与地震关系初探

从分析皖０７井水位的映震能力入手,探讨地下水与地震的关系。文中着重对１９９６年１１月９日南黄海６１级等４次中强地震前该井水位的异常特征进行分析,并对该井水位映震的机理提出一些粗浅的看法。     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

近五年中国自然灾害空间分布格局及其月动态变化研究

作者根据《中国减灾》所载１９９０～１９９４年月灾情记录，经统一编码和标准化处理，建立了以行政县为基本单元的数据库。进而对近五年来中国自然灾害空间分布及其月动态变化进行分析，并与１９４９～１９９０年中国自然灾害的平均状况进行对比。     

LAKE ONTARIO REGULATION UNDER TRANSPOSED CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: The implications of Lake Ontario regulation under transposed climates with changed means and variability are presented for seasonal and annual time scales. The current regulation plan is evaluated with climates other than the climate for which it was developed and tested. This provides insight into potential conflicts and management issues, development of regulation criteria for extreme conditions, and potential modification of the regulation plan. Transposed climates from the southeastern and south central continental United States are applied to thermodynamic models of the Great Lakes and hydrologic models of their watersheds; these climates provide four alternative scenarios of water supplies to Lake Ontario. The scenarios are analyzed with reference to the present Great Lakes climate. The responses of the Lake Ontario regulation plan to the transposed climate scenarios illustrate several key issues: (1) historical water supplies should no longer be the sole basis for testing and developing lake regulation plans; (2) during extreme supply conditions, none of the regulation criteria can be met simultaneously, priority of interests may change, and new interests may need to be considered, potentially requiring substantial revision to the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; (3) revised regulation criteria should be based on ecosystem health and socio-economic benefits for a wider spectrum of interests and not on frequencies and ranges of levels and flows of the historical climate; and (4) operational management of the lake should be improved under the present climate, and under any future climate with more variability, through the use of improved water supply forecasts and monitoring of current hydrologic conditions.     

A WATERSHED APPROACH TO ECOSYSTEM MONITORING IN DENALI NATIONAL PARK AND PRESERVE,ALASKA1

ABSTRACT: The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve, a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska, to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions, on scaling issues and regionalization, ecosystem structure and function, indicator selection and evaluation, and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek, a headwater stream near Denali headquarters, is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle, hypotheses of global climate change, and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate, but poorly studied, positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota, environmental variables, or defined ecological processes, in order to establish ecological conditions and detect, track, and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical, chemical, and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets, program integration and scaling, and research needs.     

宝玉石改色原理与辐照改色宝石的残余放射性

传统的宝石改色是以泰国的还原热处理工艺为代表，现已逐渐被人们所接受。现代科技与珠宝工艺相结合，出现辐照改变宝石颜色，然而，部分宝石因辐照而带有残余放射性，对消费者造成伤害．本文指出了宝玉石射线来源与防护措施。     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

Effects on fisheries and waterbirds of raising water levels at Kerkini Reservoir,a Ramsar site in northern greece

A new, higher dam was installed at Kerkini Reservoir in 1982, causing habitat and landscape disruption. A decrease in the area of grassland and shallow water areas, the rapid disappearance of reedbeds, the appearance of beds ofNymphaea, and the disappearance of half the forest area were all observed between 1982 and 1991. With the new hydrological regime, a lacustrine system was created, with an extensive, rather deep (4–8 m), pelagic zone favorable for the development of coarse fish species throughout the year. After 1982, an increase in fishing effort and a change in the relative abundance of fish species in the catch, including the disappearance of eels and wels, were observed. The impact of the rise in the water level of breeding aquatic birds led to a general decline in species typical of marshy habitats in favor of species preferring deeper open water habitats. A decrease was recorded in bird species that feed largely on invertebrates and to a lesser extent fish (e.g., glossy ibis) and that require extensive shallow feeding areas. There was a decline in geese, whose nests were regularly flooded, and a major increase in piscivorous birds, particularly diving birds (e.g., cormorants), which prefer deeper open water and benefitted directly from the large increase in coarse fish biomass. The disappearance of birds breeding in flooded meadows (e.g., black-winged stilts) and of those restricted to reedbeds (e.g., marsh harrier) occurred from 1983. Over the same period, the changes in populations of wintering birds at Kerkini were different from those occurring in other wetlands in northern Greece. The changes recorded in the populations of wintering birds at Kerkini did not therefore result from overall regional trends but from the major habitat modifications that occurred to this wetland. As for breeding birds, strictly piscivorous species increased greatly as a result of the increased availability of fish, but also due to the appearance of many suitable night roosting sites (flooded trees) and to the great increase in the area of open water greater than 2 m deep. Today, Kerkini has become the most important breeding site in Greece for a majority of colonial waterbirds. In contrast, wintering shorebirds practically disappeared. The many changes recorded in the status of breeding and wintering birds at Kerkini can mostly be explained by the changes that occurred in the functioning of the ecosystem and in the habitat structure following the inauguration of the new hydrological regime. These changes did not all occur at the same time: some were immediate and others required a delay before they could be detected.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Wilderness campsite impacts: Do managers and visitors see them the same?

Human-induced impacts from recreational use of wilderness continue to be a significant management challenge, threatening the integrity of the wilderness resource and the quality of visitor experiences. Campsite impacts are of particular concern to managers. One approach to this problem is the Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) planning system, which focuses attention on the question, “How much change in wilderness conditions is acceptable?” The research reported here compares and contrasts wilderness manager and visitor perceptions of theacceptability of different levels of campsite impacts,amount of impact, and perceptual zoning of wilderness. The results reinforce previous findings regarding differences between managers and visitors. Management implications are discussed.