太湖流域水灾演变与环境变迁的相关分析

新石器时期以来,太湖地区的水灾发生机制和表现形式严格受控于海、地、气系统的能量均衡和转换过程,具有明显的阶段性特征,遵循由海洋优势性向海面控制基准下陆源洪水的演变过程.愈接近现代,成灾和干扰因素愈趋复杂,逐渐呈现出水灾与环境相互反馈使水灾加深(岗身体系形成并完善,太湖形成并扩张以来),以及人类活动、水灾与环境三者间相互反馈使水灾频度加大等趋势(尤其自南宋以来).提出了相对高海面的水灾控制基面效应和太湖水灾扩张效应等观点.     

温室效应对我国长江中下游地区气候的影响--数值模拟

利用RegCM2区域气候模式嵌套一个全球模式,进行了CO2加倍情况下对中国区域气候影响的数值试验,对长江中下游地区的情况进行了重点分析.结果表明,在CO2加倍的情况下,长江中下游地区的气温将明显升高,升高值一般在2.3～2.5℃以上,但低于全国平均值.同时,其大部分区域的降水也将增加,特别是在冬季和夏季,但年平均的增加率仅为7%,也低于全国平均值.温室效应会使该地区的日平均最高和最低气温升高,降水日数增多.夏季降水的增多可能会导致这一地区夏季更多的洪涝灾害.     

珠江三角洲腹地洪水位异常变化及成因分析

珠江三角洲是我国东南沿海的经济发达地区.三角洲地区的防洪安全保障对区域的社会、经济发展具有举足轻重的作用.由于三角洲地区复杂的网河及口门构成,以及径流和潮汐共同影响的水动力条件,使三角洲的洪水水势表现出随时间和空间复杂变化的动态特征.20世纪80年代以来,三角洲地区受水土资源无序开发的人类活动的影响,90年代的洪水表现出了网河腹地河段洪水位异常壅高的现象,使区域的防洪安全受到严重威胁.结合"94.6","98.6"洪水期间三角洲腹地洪水水位异常壅高现象,综合分析了区域洪水位异常壅高的外部及内在成因,为科学制订三角洲地区防洪对策提供技术依据.     

Climatic and Environmental Changes in the Source Areas of Dust Storms in Xinjiang, China, during the Last 50 Years

The desert environmental changes in the source areas of dust storms occurring in Xinjiang are discussed based on the climate changes and the impacts of human activities in Xinjiang during the past 50 years. The results show that the climate in Xinjiang is changing from a warm-dry type to a warm-wet one. The warm-wet climate has been obvious since the mid-1970's, and especially the sensitivity of the regional climate change in this arid area is obviously revealed by many factors, such as the characteristics of the local climate change in south Xinjiang and north Xinjiang, the difference of climate change in the alpine zones and the basins, and the change of areas of the waters bodies. Furthermore, these factors also reveal the difference in the regional climate change between Xinjiang and central and eastern areas of China. The occurrence and development of dust storms are directly affected by the precipitation, air humidity, status of underlying surface, etc. in the arid areas. The frequency and intensity of dust storms are closely related to the natural conditions, changes of climate and desert environment, as well as the dynamic conditions (i.e., weather systems) in the source areas of dust storms. Therefore, global warming is one of the main causes resulting in the degradation of the ecological environment and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, especially the disasters of sand drift and dust storms in the arid areas since the late-1980's, which reveals that the inland arid areas are sensitive regions to climate changes.     

Land Use/Cover Changes, the Environment and Water Resources in Northeast China

Land use/cover in Northeast China went through extensive changes during the 1990s. This report explores the interaction between these changes and the environment, and the implication of these changes for rational allocation of water resources. Two maps of land use/cover produced from 1990 and 2000 Landsat TM satellite images were overlaid in ArcInfo to reveal changes in land cover. Results indicate that farmland and grassland decreased by 386,195 and 140,075 ha, respectively, while water, built-up areas, and woodland increased by 238,596, 194,231, and 192,682 ha, respectively. These changes bore a mutual relationship with the environmental change. On the one hand, climate warming made some of these changes (e.g., conversion of woodland and grassland to farmland) possible. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. These changes, in turn, caused severe environmental degradation and increased flooding. The change between dry field and rice paddy, in particular, raised severe implications for the proper allocation of limited water resources in the Northeast. Efforts are needed to coordinate their rational allocation to reap maximum and sustainable return over the entire area, not just in some localities. Results obtained in this study should be of interest to the international audience of Environmental Management in that they highlight the interactive nature of human activities and the environment and the off-site impact of these activities on the environment.     

近50年中国旱灾的时空变化

采用省级报刊信息源 ,建立了中国旱灾数据库 ,运用数字地图技术 ,重建了 194 9～ 2 0 0 0年中国旱灾的时空格局。研究表明 :全国旱灾空间格局总体呈东西分异 ,重旱灾区域在北方 ,并相对集中分布在黑龙江西部、内蒙古中部、河北北部、陕西北部和宁夏 ;在南方主要分布在中部 5省 (安徽、湖北、湖南、江西和河南 )及四川东部、贵州和云南中东部。全国旱灾的范围有向西部扩展的趋势。全国旱灾动态变化趋向总体呈现南北分异。长江以北地区为旱灾灾次增多区 ;长江以南地区为旱灾普遍减少区或变化不明显区。     

遵义市大气主要污染物浓度变化规律试析

通过分析大气中主要污染物浓度的时空变化，阐明形成此规律的原因，对大气污染物的预测和防治具有一定意义。     

PRIESTLEY‐TAYLOR ALPHA COEFFICIENT: VARIABILITY AND RELATIONSHIP TO NDVI IN ARCTIC TUNDRA LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: Average daily values of the Priestley‐Taylor coefficient (a) were calculated for two eddy covariance (flux) tower sites with contrasting vegetation, soil moisture, and temperature characteristics on the North Slope of Alaska over the 1994 and 1995 growing seasons. Because variations in a have been shown to be associated with changes in vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological conditions in Arctic ecosystems, we hypothesized that a values would be significantly different between sites. Since variations in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) follow patterns of vegetation community composition and state that are largely controlled by moisture and temperature gradients on the North Slope of Alaska, we hypothesized that temporal variations in a respond to these same conditions and thus co‐vary with NDVI. Significant differences in a values were found between the two sites in 1994 under average precipitation conditions. However, in 1995, when precipitation conditions were above average, no significant difference was found. Overall, the variations in a over the two growing seasons showed little relationship to the seasonal progression of the regional NDVI. The only significant relationship was found at the drier, upland study site.     

关中盆地地-气系统灾变的节律性及耦合关系

依据丰富而系统的历史资料，建立了关中盆地历史地震与旱涝灾害两个数据库，分析了近2000a来地-气系统环境灾变的节律性及耦合关系。结果发现：(1)地震活动具有一定的节律性，并先后经历了3个平静期和3个活跃期，平静期与活跃期呈交替出现，具有3～4个世纪的周期；(2)较为严重的干旱、洪涝灾害亦具有一定的周期性，先后经历了2个洪涝期和3个干旱期，其较长尺度的转换周期亦为3～4个世纪；(3)在世纪尺度上，地震活动与旱涝灾害具有某种耦合关系，表现为在地震活动的活跃期，旱涝灾害呈多发性，而在地震活动的平静期，旱涝灾害较为稀少；(4)以较大级别的地震群发为节点，地气系统环境灾变的耦合关系具有先旱→后震→再涝的演替特征。基于上述事实，提出了一个地-气系统环境灾变的概念模型，对地震与旱涝灾害的耦合关系给出了确定性解释。为关中盆地世纪尺度的环境灾变群发性预测提供了新的依据。     

南海市耕地数量变化驱动力的定量分析

分析了南海市耕地数量变化的特点，并用定性与定量相结合的方法进一步探讨了耕地数量变化的驱动力。结果表明，南海市耕地数量的变化与珠江三角洲耕地数量变化的时间基本一致且与经济发展同步。经济发展、人口增长、基础设施建设及农业结构调整是耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。