A method to estimate pre-exploitation population size

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre-exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre-exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age-structured population model, we estimated the pre-exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5–3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. Article impact statement: Defining species recovery requires an understanding of baseline population state, which can be estimated through statistical methods.     

区域历史地理研究与国土规划

人口与资源和环境之间的相互关系是一个历史过程。从发生学观点研究特写区域这种关系及其变化规律是区域历史地理研究的核心内容，探索历史上人口与资源和环境之间相互关系的规律及其演化机制，可为区域国土规划与整治中人口、资源与环境发展提供必要的历史借鉴和客观依据。同时，国土规划与整治的现实任务亦为区域历史地理研究提供了发展机遇。     

上海典型燃烧源铅和汞大气排放趋势分析

上海百年来快速的城市化进程导致资源能源的大量消耗,并向城市环境中排放了大量有毒有害污染物.为探寻上海典型燃烧源重金属大气排放历史及趋势,基于上海化石燃料(煤炭和汽油)的历史消耗量及其大气铅(Pb)和汞(Hg)的排放因子,估算了上海主要燃煤部门(燃煤电厂、工业部门和居民生活)和机动车燃油大气Pb和Hg的历史排放量.结果表明,1949~2015年间大气Pb和Hg的燃煤排放量随时间推进均呈现先增长后下降趋势,即1949年解放后快速增长的煤炭消耗和较少的烟尘控制措施使其排放量出现急剧地波动式增长,至20世纪80~90年达到高峰,此后上海采取了各种减排和控制措施,使得目前三大燃煤源的大气Pb和Hg排放量出现大幅度下降.1980~2015年间上海大气Hg的燃煤排放比例一直占据主导地位(87.5%~99.7%).含铅汽油自1997年完全退出上海市场之后,燃煤排放替代其成为大气Pb的主要贡献源(78.2%~83.5%),然而自2005年起随着汽油消耗的急速增长,汽油燃烧排放又成为其主要贡献源(55.5%~79.1%).     

Loss of Large Predatory Sharks from the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract:  Evidence for severe declines in large predatory fishes is increasing around the world. Because of its long history of intense fishing, the Mediterranean Sea offers a unique perspective on fish population declines over historical timescales. We used a diverse set of records dating back to the early 19th and mid 20th century to reconstruct long-term population trends of large predatory sharks in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We compiled 9 time series of abundance indices from commercial and recreational fishery landings, scientific surveys, and sighting records. Generalized linear models were used to extract instantaneous rates of change from each data set, and a meta-analysis was conducted to compare population trends. Only 5 of the 20 species we considered had sufficient records for analysis. Hammerhead ( Sphyrna spp.), blue ( Prionace glauca ), mackerel ( Isurus oxyrinchus and Lamna nasus ), and thresher sharks ( Alopias vulpinus ) declined between 96 and 99.99% relative to their former abundance. According to World Conservation Union (IUCN) criteria, these species would be considered critically endangered. So far, the lack of quantitative population assessments has impeded shark conservation in the Mediterranean Sea. Our study fills this critical information gap, suggesting that current levels of exploitation put large sharks at risk of extinction in the Mediterranean Sea. Possible ecosystem effects of these losses involve a disruption of top-down control and a release of midlevel consumers.     

Tracking the response of industrial fishing fleets to large marine protected areas in the Pacific Ocean

Large marine protected areas (MPAs) of unprecedented size have recently been established across the global oceans, yet their ability to meet conservation objectives is debated. Key areas of debate include uncertainty over nations’ abilities to enforce fishing bans across vast, remote regions and the intensity of human impacts before and after MPA implementation. We used a recently developed vessel tracking data set (produced using Automatic Identification System detections) to quantify the response of industrial fishing fleets to 5 of the largest MPAs established in the Pacific Ocean since 2013. After their implementation, all 5 MPAs successfully kept industrial fishing effort exceptionally low. Detected fishing effort was already low in 4 of the 5 large MPAs prior to MPA implementation, particularly relative to nearby regions that did not receive formal protection. Our results suggest that these large MPAs may present major conservation opportunities in relatively intact ecosystems with low immediate impact to industrial fisheries, but the large MPAs we considered often did not significantly reduce fishing effort because baseline fishing was typically low. It is yet to be determined how large MPAs may shape global ocean conservation in the future if the footprint of human influence continues to expand. Continued improvement in understanding of how large MPAs interact with industrial fisheries is a crucial step toward defining their role in global ocean management.     

Historical perspectives on contemporary human–environment dynamics in southeast Africa

The human communities and ecosystems of island and coastal southeast Africa face significant and linked ecological threats. Socioecological conditions of concern to communities, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers include declining agricultural productivity, deforestation, introductions of non-native flora and fauna, coastal erosion and sedimentation, damage to marine environments, illegal fishing, overfishing, waste pollution, salinization of freshwater supplies, and rising energy demands, among others. Human–environment challenges are connected to longer, often ignored, histories of social and ecological dynamics in the region. We argue that these challenges are more effectively understood and addressed within a longer-term historical ecology framework. We reviewed cases from Madagascar, coastal Kenya, and the Zanzibar Archipelago of fisheries, deforestation, and management of human waste to encourage increased engagement among historical ecologists, conservation scientists, and policy makers. These case studies demonstrate that by widening the types and time depths of data sets we used to investigate and address current socioecological challenges, our interpretations of their causes and strategies for their mitigation varied significantly.     

Using social resilience and resource dependency to increase the effectiveness of marine conservation initiatives in Salum,Egypt

The social and economic ramifications of marine conservation strategies such as marine protected areas (MPAs) are important to consider prior to their implementation to ensure that they do not exceed the resilience of resource-users and that resource protection might be maximised through compliance and low resistance. This paper presents a framework in which the human dimensions can be more easily and usefully integrated into the design and delivery of conservation initiatives. The framework espouses quantifying (1) the level of dependency on the resource; (2) perceptions towards conservation initiatives; and (3) social resilience. The framework is applied in Salum, Egypt, which is the site of a prospective MPA.     

Explaining implementation deficits through multi-level governance in the EU's new member states: EU limits for arsenic in drinking water in Hungary

This paper uses a multi-level governance lens to explore a case of non-compliance with EU legislation in Hungary and expands historical institutionalist explanations of EU laggards. Despite adopting the European Union's (EU's) limit of 10 ppb arsenic in drinking water, parts of Hungary do not comply. To explain this deficit, the paper examines the match between discourse incorporated into policy and held by policy actors in Hungary. Multiple points of mismatch are found that influence implementation because of governance structures, adding specificity to explanations of ‘goodness of fit’ between EU and national policy.     

中国城市饮用水法的历史发展及其启示

近年来中国城市饮用水事件频发,威胁着城市饮用水安全,直接关系着公民的生命权和健康权.然而,中国有关城市饮用水的规定散见于相关法律、行政法规及环境、水利、卫生、建设等部门制定的规章中,还没有一部完整意义上的城市饮用水法.城市饮用水法历经四个历史阶段的发展,仍然只关注于城市饮用水某个阶段的发展.因此,城市饮用水法应加强城市饮用水各个阶段的管理,建立城市饮用水全过程控制法律制度.     

Do Catch-and-Release Guidelines from State and Provincial Fisheries Agencies in North America Conform to Scientifically Based Best Practices?

Many recreational anglers practice catch-and-release angling, where fish are returned to the water with the presumption that they will survive. However, not all fish survive, and those that do often experience sublethal consequences including injury and stress. There is compelling scientific evidence that angler behavior and gear choice can affect the success of catch-and-release as a management and conservation strategy. Because anglers often look to government natural resource agencies for guidance on how to handle and release fish properly, there is a need to assess whether their outreach materials are readily accessible and provide the necessary and correct information on the subject. Therefore, on-line catch-and-release guidelines developed by state and provincial natural resource agencies across North America were evaluated to determine whether their guidelines were consistent with the best available scientific information. This analysis revealed that there was immense variation in the depth and breadth of coverage among jurisdictions. Agency guidelines contradicted one another in several areas including air exposure, angling in deep water, venting trapped gases, and resuscitation. In many cases, the guidelines failed to provide sufficient direction to actually be of use to anglers or provide direction consistent with contemporary scientific literature. This analysis will assist with developing outreach materials that promote sustainable recreational fisheries and in maintaining the welfare status of individual fish.