Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

Discussion of Population Modernization Theory and Actuality Analysis of Population Modernization in China

This paper discusses the basic concept and connotation of population modernization. The author briefly analyzes the actuality of population modernization in China, gives some advice and puts forward some measures.     

An Ecologically Destabilized Environment: Its Effect on Small-Mammal Populations

Characteristics of the small-mammal populations inhabiting forest biocenoses in the Middle Ural state reserves have been analyzed over in the period from 1987 to 2002. During this period, the habitats of these animals were considerably destabilized due to windfalls and fires. The environmental characteristics of animal microhabitats at different stages of environment destabilization have been described quantitatively. Changes in the long-term cycles of the population dynamics of the dominant forest vole species caused by the destabilizing factors have been found. Redistribution of species dominance with respect to abundance has been demonstrated.     

The Spatiotemporal Structure of Rodent Populations in the Steppe Zone of Western Siberia

The spatial structure of populations has been studied in two rodent species inhabiting the subzone of meadow steppes of the steppe zone of Omsk oblast: the narrow-sculled vole (Microtus gregalis Pall.) and steppe lemming (Lagurus lagurus Pall.). Their populations are represented by combinations of territorial family groups whose structure and spatial distribution vary by season depending on population density, the phase of the population cycle, and the status of their members in the population. In the areas cohabited by M. gregalis and L. lagurus, the pattern of territory use and the rhythm of animal activity during the day depend primarily on their total density: under conditions of low density, the population groups of both species are spatially separated; at increased density, they are distributed with respect to the pattern of daily activity. Both species jointly use part of the territory but at different times of day: M. gregalis, mainly at night and in the morning; L. lagurus, in the daytime.     

The Frequency of Micronuclei among Newborns from Kragujevac, Central Serbia, after NATO Bombing in the Spring of 1999

Kragujevac, as an important industrial and economic center of the region, is now placed on the top of the list of environmentally endangered cities in our country. The aim of this biomonitoring study was to evaluate cytogenetic damage in a sample of newborns from Kragujevac after contamination of the environment entailed by the intensive bombing of the industrial zone of this city in the spring of 1999. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) in peripheral blood lymphocytes in a total of 61 phenotypically healthy newborns was analyzed before and after the NATO bombing. Analysis of micronuclei has been performed using the cytokinesis-block technique (CB MN test). Average MN frequency in lymphocytes of newborns before the bombing (N = 25) was 5.77 ± 0.85/1000 analyzed cells. After the bombing (N = 36), the average frequency of MN increased by a factor of 1.4 (8.11 ± 0.85), compared to the control frequency before the bombing. Statistical difference (p < 0.05) was established by Student's t-test. Our data suggest that such changes in genetic material were a direct consequence of contamination of the living environment.     

石林风景名胜区对乡村经济发展的影响

石林风景名胜区始建于20世纪30年代,旅游开发经历了居民游览、服务中心城市的接待观光型到区域支柱产业的转型。经济体制深刻地影响了石林旅游业,旅游产品延续了计划经济体制下形成接待观光游览型,形成以门票收入为主体的旅游经济收入格局,对不同层次的经济发展带来不同的影响。石林旅游业对县级经济收入、产业结构、财政、税收有积极影响,近5年石林旅游业占当地GDP的9%～11%,占第三产业产值的27.9% ～33%、财政收入的10.8%～0.1%,但对农业生产、农村居民就业和家庭收入的带动力弱,有明显的“距离衰减效应”。获得旅游效益的居民限于风景区旅游中心的村寨,约占风景区人口的15%,中心旅游区的第三产业就业人员比例比其它地区高7%～35%。中心区农民参与旅游业方式的调查表明,居民参与旅游业的方式被动：耕地被征用后,或被风景名胜区管理部门雇佣、或成个体工商户、或被外来企业雇佣,就业领域局限于餐饮服务、环卫和绿化、民族工艺品制作与销售、照相、旅游交通、导游等。风景区农村的基础建设、产业结构、就业领域与风景区功能和旅游业目标的协调存在距离。促进风景名胜区旅游业对所在地的“三农”发展的协调值得思考和解决。     

低剂量臭氧的直接通加对活性污泥的活性、微生物种群及污泥减量化的影响

研究构建了2个容积为1.1 L的好氧活性污泥反应器（即1号和2号反应器）1,号反应器每天直接通加低剂量臭氧（投加量为0.01 g O3/g TSS）,不加臭氧的2号反应器作为对照平行运行,均采用每天换一次人工污水的充/排式操作。运行71 d的结果表明2,个反应器对人工污水COD的处理效果基本相同。反应器运行40 d后1,号反应器的污泥浓度比2号反应器的污泥浓度低1 400～1 700 mg/L并可稳定在8 200 mg/L,污泥减量化效果明显。低剂量臭氧的直接通加明显降低了胞内ATP浓度,并影响了微生物的抗氧化活性,2号反应器的平均超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化氢酶酶活比1号反应器分别高了24.3%和9.5%。PCR-DGGE对两反应器微生物种群的分析结果表明：Uncultured gammaproteobacteria bacteri-um、Nannocystis exedens和Uncultured actinobacterium为1号反应器的主要种群;而2号反应器的主要种群为Uncultured bacte-rium和Uncultured gammaproteobacteria bacterium。     

Attitudes of rural population in emergency exposure situations

People growing crops in kitchen gardens eat locally self-produced food and are the subject of growing attention as the potential for a more sustainable development. A survey was carried out in two provinces in northern Italy to gather information on the consumption of local horticultural products, peoples’ expectations of authorities in the case of a nuclear accident and peoples’ behaviour in the absence of official information. Results show that up to 70% of the owners of kitchen gardens possess diets comprised of more than 60% of self-produced vegetables and can be regarded as particular groups of population. In the case of a dispersion of radioactive material, the local population would take advantage of official information on preventive measures to protect farms and local crops from contamination. Results of the survey show differences in the attitude of the population due to age, gender and past experience.     

Inhalation dose assessment of indoor radon progeny using biokinetic and dosimetric modeling and its application to Jordanian population

High indoor radon concentrations in Jordan result in internal exposures of the residents due to the inhalation of radon and its short-lived progeny. It is therefore important to quantify the annual effective dose and further the radiation risk to the radon exposure. This study describes the methodology and the biokinetic and dosimetric models used for calculation of the inhalation doses exposed to radon progeny. The regional depositions of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract were firstly calculated. For the attached progeny, the activity median aerodynamic diameters of 50 nm, 230 nm and 2500 nm were chosen to represent the nucleation, accumulation and coarse modes of the aerosol particles, respectively. For the unattached progeny, the activity median thermodynamic diameter of 1 nm was chosen to represent the free progeny nuclide in the room air. The biokinetic models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were used to calculate the nuclear transformations of radon progeny in the human body, and then the dosimetric model was applied to estimate the organ equivalent doses and the effective doses with the specific effective energies derived from the mathematical anthropomorphic phantoms. The dose conversion coefficient estimated in this study was 15 mSv WLM⁻¹ which was in the range of the values of 6-20 mSv WLM⁻¹ reported by other investigators. Implementing the average indoor radon concentration in Jordan, the annual effective doses were calculated to be 4.1 mSv y⁻¹ and 0.08 mSv y⁻¹ due to the inhalation of radon progeny and radon gas, respectively. The total annual effective dose estimated for Jordanian population was 4.2 mSv y⁻¹. This high annual effective dose calculated by the dosimetric approach using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models resulted in an increase of a factor of two in comparison to the value by epidemiological study. This phenomenon was presented by the ICRP in its new published statement on radon.     

中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。